[General Discussion] "when pigs fly..."

THIS IS NOT A FLAME WAR THREAD!! BE WARNED!!

I was talking with my good friend Tyler just yesterday. We were casually talking about purchases we were thinking of making in the near future. Tyler had plans to save up for a MacBook (and before that a MacMini), but decided to change his mind and save up for a nice DW drumkit. As we were talking about that and what it would be like to hook a MacMini up to a TV, Tyler said some words I thought would never come out of his mouth. He said,

"I'm thinking of picking up that new Nintendo system. It's only $250 bucks and..."

This is where I cut him off. See, you have to understand something about Tyler. He IS THE EPITOME of the "sony" player and has been for quite sometime. He plays GTA, GT4, and TonyHawk religiously. I was so blown away by what he just had said that I replied,

"You're thinking of buying a Wii?" And he said, "Yeah."

__________________________________________________ ____________


Fast forward to discussion.

This got me to thinking alot about what the heck is going to happen in this next generation of consoles. I've kind of thought for a while that Sony is fighting an uphill battle with production of PS3 not yet underway (which would mean that to reach 2 million units at launch, 30,000 units would need to be built every day from now 'til launch) and trying to sell Blu-Ray. But this little statement by Tyler really got me thinking.

What the hell is going to happen in this next generation? If my friend Tyler, who I never thought would think about buying a Wii, is going to, what else is gonna happen?

So let's hear it. What do you think is going to happen this next generation? Write up a little blurb about how you think this next generation of consoles is going to pan out... Who has the most units sold, which will have the most third-party games, whose online network is going to hit huge, which console will end up with the best exclusives, etc.

Now to play this prediction game we will need a few rules to play by, so as not to start a flaming, bickering war (since people get personally vested in their favorite console maker).

1. DO NOT REPLY COUNTERING OTHER PEOPLE'S PREDICTIONS
Saying "that's interesting" or "I disagree" is ok, but no " I disagree and here is 50 bullet points saying why."

2. THIS IS NOT A COMPETITION TO CONVINCE OR PERSUADE PEOPLE TO YOUR SIDE!!
This discussion is to just have everyone at GFF give their thoughts and insight for others to see. I know I would love to hear what you think.

3. STATE WHAT YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN TO THESE QUESTIONS SPECIFICALLY
Who will have the most units sold?
Which will have the most third-party games?
Whose online network is going to hit huge?
Which console will end up with the best exclusives?

Lets the game begain!

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Who will have the most units sold?
I think that Nintendo will sell the most units with the Wii being cheapest. Look at how successful the DS has been in North America and especially Japan. Remember those old Atari commercials with families playing videogames together? I think that the Wii will bring back videogames as a family activity. It's easy to get into the game and play.

Which will have the most third-party games?
I'd have to go with Sony. I felt that with last generation, the PS2 had the most variety.. especially when it came to niche games. I dont think Japanese developers will be turning away from a Sony machine anytime soon.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?
Playing Nintendo's console games online has been a long time coming. Add in the fact that people will be able to download classic console games not just from Nintendo consoles, but also Genesis and Turbographix.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?
I think that games developed with the Wii in mind will be the best exclusives. It will challenge developers to come up with new gameplay ideas. And as I mentioned before, online play might play a big part in terms of people being able to play with classic franchises and characters online.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

A thread like this without war? Good luck...

Who will have the most units sold?
-I see it as a close one between X360 and Wii. X360 because of the base established so far and the online system. Wii because of the new experience and price point. PS3 will be a CLOSE 3rd. I believe that the price and business tactics will strip Sony of their leadership in the market, but only just.
(1) X360 (2) Wii (3) PS3

Which will have the most third-party games?
-X360 seems to be the one with the most third party games. It's a powerful and easier-to-program system than the PS3, which I've heard is pretty hard to handle. Wii's Virtual Console may bring in the third parties, but if you count that out then it may be third since companies these days are too scared shit to take risks.
(1) X360 (2) Wii (3) PS3

Whose online network is going to hit huge?
-Because Sony is going to tackle Microsoft in their own game, Microsoft will come out the winner because of their experience. Which leaves Wii looking very good for a spot in 2nd. Virtual console, WiConnect24 and an unintimidating setup are two of many things that will allow Nintendo to run away from the war and strike gold.
(1) X360 (2) Wii (3) PS3

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?
-If you talk numbers, X360 will take it. But I'm taking this question as a quality thing rather than quantity, and so Wii winds hands down. New experience, plus an already large establishment of great 1st party franchines almost make this a no brainer. In my opinion, Sony will be getting greater exclusives than X360 as I have no interest in more FPSs or RTS games. So I guess it's just a matter of the individual.
(1) Wii (2) PS3 (#) X360

Overall
(1) X360 (2) Wii (3) PS3
What I'd like to See
(1) Wii (2) X360 (3) PS3

-Although from the arguments I've compiled I've concluded X360 the winnah, I would like to support Wii in this upcoming generation, simply because I'm one of those who would like to see the gaming industry rejuvinated. And I believe that X360 is a great system for the traditionalists. PS3 is good, but their business tactics look a little worrying ATM...

Nice long read.

How ya doing, buddy?

Silly rabbit, console wars are for kids. At the end of the day, the consumer wins, no matter which console(s) they purchase. I predict people will continue to purchase the console(s) they feel most comfortable with. While the price of the PS3 may be initially shocking I think people will begin to realize how cheap in fact the bundle really is, considering the hardware inside.

Who will have the most units sold?
Which will have the most third-party games?
Whose online network is going to hit huge?
Which console will end up with the best exclusives?

All to be determined. I myself have no vested interest in who "wins" in this land of kiddy politics. Gaming to me is more than just numbers. I guess at first the Wii will sell quite well since North Americans are hardwired to save a buck, but like I said, the masses will come around and realize that $600 dollars for a home media centre which has almost all the same functionality of a PC is a hell of a bargain.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Who will have the most units sold?

I feel that the Xbox360 will maintain a lead with both the PS3 and Wii close behind. I don't see anyone console being the runaway smash.

Which will have the most third-party games?

The Xbox360 and PS3 will have the most. However, if developers see the monetary potential of the Wii, then perhaps we'll see more games for the little system that could.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?

As it stands right now, the Xbox 360 hands down. Xbox Live has over 1 million registered users, correct? It'll only continue to grow especially with MS offering a similar virtual console deal like the Wii. The specifics of the other companies is too vague right now.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?

Probably the Wii, followed by the 360. Right now, it's too expensive to really stay exclusive to one console. GTA is going multiplatform and I'm sure any third party games released on the 360 now will eventually be released on the PS3 in the future. Currently the 360 has some amazing exclusives, but that's because it's the only next generation cat in town.

I was speaking idiomatically.

I'd like to begin by stating what history has shown us thus far since the days of the NES (I can't speak for the Atari, because I either wasn't born, or can't remember). First of all, no one has maintained the lead for more than 2 generations. Second, there is always at least 1 failure. I'm not saying which system will fail, just that history shows us that one will fail, just like the Turbographyx, Jaguar, and Dreamcast. But history doesn't determine the future, so lets look at what we got.

Xbox 360: Best online platform with Xbox Live. Sony will just be playing catch up with them for years on this one. However, even though the Xbox 360 is the only next gen console out on the market, off of the top of my head, I can only think of one really good game ( DOA4) that is a system exclusive. If its on the PC, then it is not exclusive, because I have an alternate way of playing this game with out being forced to purchase an Xbox 360.

Playstation 3: Support from Japanese developers. Because Japanese people don't like the Xbox, Japanese developers don't like it either, and since Nintendo isn't a competitor in the traditional games category, the PS3 will benefit from the exclusives the Japanese developers put on the sysetm.

Wii: This one is a little hard to predict without actually demoing it, due to its new approach to gaming via its controller. What it looks like, is that the Wii will suck when it comes to traditional or multiplatform games, but will shine with games developed exclusivly for the Wii. However, this all depends on the creativity of developers, and in a market filled with sequels and rip-offs, banking on creativity is a bit risky.

So, in summary,

Who will have the most units sold?
PS3, simply because of the Japan factor. It may not be the success story of the PSOne or PS2, but the PS3 has the ability to capture all 3 of the major markets, where as the Xbox 360 has no chance in Japan. The problem with the Wii is that the technology is there, its doubtful, but the creativity may be there, but what is killing the Wii, is the Nintendo name brand. This is what killed Sega. People don't forget. People remember the N64 and Gamecube as being 3rd party failures, with the best games being made by Nintendo and being extremely childish. While the gaming community may be excited for the Wii, the mainstream, the people who made Madden and GTA a hit, I'm not convinced that they are sold on the Wii.

Which will have the most third-party games?
PS3. The problem with the Xbox 360 is that the majority of their high profile 3rd pary games have already been confirmed as having ports planned for PS3, or the game is available for the PC. Japanese developers favor the PS3, Europe doesn't develop a whole lot of games, and ususally, American games are multiplatform. So, if you add all of the multiplatform games, plus Japanese support to the PS3, the PS3 will have the most 3rd party games.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?
Xbox 360. Xbox live beats everything. This is hardly a competition.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?
Very subjective question, so lets break it down, because there is no one clear winner here.
The PS3 will have the best exlusives by Japanese developers. If you like Japanese games, get a PS3.
The Xbox 360 will have the best online and American exclusives (though they may be the same, and few and far between.) If you like multiplayer games, Xbox 360 is for you.
The Wii will have the most unique exclusive games. The Wii can do things that no other system can, therefore, its games will be unique, and this is where the appeal of the Wii lies. If you are tired of conventional gaming, get a Wii.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Who will have the most units sold?

The Playstation 3. Despite its rather elite pricing, I think a lot of analysts are over-predicting the holiday rush. Having worked in retail through two consecutive Christmas seasons, believe me when I say this -- if people want something, they'll get the money. I know people who, during the downtimes, won't spend $55 on a game to save their life. But come Christmas, $600 for a system is chump change all of a sudden. Buyers who want the system (namely, those who've been satisifed with their PS2 enough to warrant purchasing the system) will get a system, hands down.

However, there is one other factor to consider -- shortages. It's inevitable that Sony will not produce enough, simply because demand will exceedingly overwhelm supply. Take a look at last year -- the PSP and DS were the highest selling systems, even above the Xbox 360. And that was due entirely to shortages. It will be difficult to call this one.

Which will have the most third-party games?

I think this question's already been answered by Gamespot, wherein a previous article they quoted Sony has having signed on 208 developers -- more than the PS1, 2, or PSP -- and shipped out over 10,000 dev kits, also more than their previous systems. Nintendo's perpetual "we can deny it if we don't like it" makes developers shy away, and it's my opinion that smaller-budget companies won't want the hassle of developing for the Wiimote. There are two business strategies here -- save money by developing for a cheaper console, or spend the extra cash and develop for a console that (quite possibly) more people will own, and thus have a larger market who is able to buy your product.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?

It's already been established that the Xbox 360 is the current online leader, but then again it's the only one. I won't make a prediction like this because it's too easy to just say "Microsoft has it because they've had it for years." In fact, it's somewhat impossible to predict this, seeing as they're going unrivaled so far. And honestly, I don't think nostalgia kicks a la the Wii's virtual console will be enough to topple Xbox Live. We'll just have to wait and see what Sony's dark horse can do.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?

Again, I'm placing my bets with the Playstation 3. It was true in the past (if only because the PS2 got the vast majority of exclusives, excluding first-party titles) and I think it'll be true again. The influence of Japanese culture in the U.S. is hitting new pinnacles every year, and it's very clear that Sony will retain an incredibly large number of Japanese games, whether they're RPG or otherwise. For RPG gamers like myself, there won't be any other choice than to get a PS3, honestly.

As a final note, I'd like to say that I'm amazed at how some people see the retail market. The Wii's success seems to be (from the perspectives of many analysts and gamers who know it all) entirely dependent on the fact like people want the cheapest system. However, if that were true, then why did the Gamecube fail to reach the same sales numbers that the Xbox and PS2 did? Consumers do not always purchase so predictably -- if they want something bad enough, they will sacrifice to get it, and that includes gaming systems. Consumers are people who need justification in their purchasing decisions, and if they can justify the PS3 ("My kid really wants one and I know he'd really enjoy it") and its price point, then the transaction has already been finalized.

That's especially true during the holiday season. Nobody wants and hardly anyone has the time to be sold on a particular system. They know what they want and they want it with minimal hassle. If they or whoever they're buying for want a PS3/360/Wii, then that is what they'll get.

How ya doing, buddy?

--Who will have the most units sold?--
Seems like everyone wants a Wii. With the prices of PS3 and 360, Wiis also the choice for those with less money. For those with money, its seems to be seen as a "might as well" buy. Gamefaqs polls have shown, over the past month or so, that it looks about 80% of gamers, whom visit their site, are planning on owning a Wii. 40% around original release, and 40% around the time of a price drop. A previous poll concerning pre-ordering a Wii showed only a 22% disinterest in the product. Polls by Joystiq showed similiar result, with a low scale poll and a large scale poll, 84% and 86% respectively. In GFF's "Which next-gen system" Poll, the Wii netted 84%.

Compare that to PS3's near total at 65% interest level. A massive 56% are intending to wait till around the time of a lower price, only 9% intending to pruchase it at the actual time of release. This could prove very harmful to the system's library itself, as few people would be purchasing the games. Is Sony still planning on increasing the price of PS3 games? That would just be one more notch... A previous poll concerning pre-ordering a PS3 reported a 49% general disinterest in the PS3. Joystiqs polls showed interest at 48% and 22% respectively(small scale and large scale). In GFF's "Which next-gen system" Poll, the PS3 netted a mere 37%.

Compare that to 360's total near 55% level, 23% already owning the system, 32% still planning to purchase it. If Sony isnt careful, the 360 could beat the PS3. Joystiq's poll showed 360 interest at 46% and 58%. In GFF's "Which next-gen system" Poll, the 360 netted a mere 27%.

Gamefaq's also asked gamers to choose only one system between the three, as parents may as well come holiday time (although with the price difference, i'd say "you get a wii or nothing"). The Wii won with 50%, the PS3 following with 33%, and the 360 trailing with 13%; leaving 3% generally uninterested.

While Gamefaqs is not a representative poll of the public, it is a pretty good sampling of the teenage gamers, which accounts for a significant(correction) ammount of gamers. GFF's audiance is a bit harder to pigeonhole, and certainly doesn't account for what we will see on a massive scale, but is interesting to note and comprare to the Gamefaq's data. It is important to note that the GFF poll and Joystiq pole allowed any combination of the three systems, and that the factors are the sum of each option that system is involved in. In addition, this doesn't account for Nintendo's targetting of non-gaming audiances. Who knows how much or how little that will increase their sells.

PS3 and 360 seem to vary siginificantly in interest depending on who is running the poll. However, the interest in Wii remains strong regardless, and is still siginificantly higher than the other two in any poll. Every poll I've seen so far shows the Wii in the lead, normally followed by a lagging PS3, with the 360 not far behind it. I've only seen one poll so far with the Wii _NOT_ in the lead.

--Which will have the most third-party games?--
Wii should. Any gaming company that has any level of intelligence should see the sheer economic advantage to releasing a game to such a high % of gamers via one system alone. Thats why the PS2 won in the previous gen. It'll be interesting though, because Sony has the history, but it looks like Wii will have the numbers. The Wii's 80% easily beats the interest level of both the 360's and PS3's shown interest. The interest level in the Wii from the general public should be any gaming company's wet dream. The economic advantage is huge, any gaming company that doesn't take advantage of this has no concept of a buisiness model.

I dont know the price on the PS3 dev kit pricing, but I figure, based on the history of the PS2 dev kit, that it will be fairly expensive. Toss in the fact of having to deal with that blue-ray bull... The Wii's dev kit is a fraction of the cost's of the PS2's, and probably significantly lower than the PS3's. This should aid in the smaller companies making games for the Wii. Wiki reports the Wii's dev kit at a little more than JP¥200,000 (approx. US$1,768, c.2006), the PS2's at US$20,000 at the console's launch, while those for the first PlayStation cost US$4,000–US$5,000 at launch. No ammount is listed for neither the 360, nor the original Xbox.

The option of using the original Gamecube controllers also is a big help, because the wii-remote thus becomes an option, not a nescessity. In addition, if games also allow being played by either the wii remote and the more traditional controller, this allows players to choose what _they_ are more comfortable, and would encourage purchasing the Wii version of multi-release games.

--Whose online network is going to hit huge?--
One of Xbox's main appeals has always been the online feature, which I've never cared for. Havnt heard much about PS3's. However, between the free wifi, and the ability to download older games, along with the massive number of possible users... I think Wii's will do the best.


--Which console will end up with the best exclusives?--
Really hard to say. Im thinking either PS3 or the Wii. PS3 due to its sheer power, but the Wii due to its controller possibilities... really hard to say.

How ya doing, buddy?

Your friend Tyler is the epitome of the video game player I hate the most.

I think Nintendo Wii will have the most sold. Not by the most remarkable amount, but by enough.

Xbox 360 will likely have the most 3rd party games. Then PS3.

The Wii online network should be big because of the different types of games that people can play and the different ages of players.

Nintendo will always have the best exclusives. Zelda, Metroid, Mario. End of story.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Who Will Have the Most Units Sold
I think that microsoft will beat sony beat but not because they started out first...i think its because they have had a longer time to build up their fan base and convert people over microsoft because sony fans couldnt wait for something new or just liked what microsoft has and has coming.

Which Will Have the Most Third Party Games
Sony will probly will win this battle. They have signed on quite a few developers and somewhere in the piles of mediocre games a few good games will appear to dazzle us all.

Which Online Network Is Going to Hit it Huge
Xbox has had a reliable network for for the past couple of years and have had great sucess with their network and online services. Sony sounds like it has done a much better job then it did with the ps2 and the options that are open for users can blow microsoft away if they work and it comes off without a hitch. Going to give this one to sony bar any network problems.

Which Consol Will End Up With the Best Exclusives
I think that Microsofty will have the better exclusives. They came out with a fairly good line up and are following up with an even better looking line up when sony releases the ps3. Sure people will but the ps3 but wont look into buying to many games right on the release day because they've already dropped 500-600 dollars on a brand new consol and dont want to buy 3-4 new games. So unless eveyone who buys ps3 gets the same game only 2-3 titles will do well from the starting gate for sony. The Wii looks extremly promissing with exclusives especially with such a low price people can get a few good looking games and try them out with their friends on the sweet looking controler. All in all i give it to the Wii to come out with the best exclusives.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Originally Posted by avanent

While Gamefaqs is not a representative poll of the public, it is a pretty good sampling of the teenage gamers, which accounts for majority of gamers. GFF's audiance is a bit harder to pigeonhole, and certainly doesn't account for what we will see on a massive scale, but is interesting to note and comprare to the Gamefaq's data. In addition, this doesn't account for Nintendo's targetting of non-gaming audiances. Who knows how much or how little that will increase their sells.

This can't go without correction. No, teenage gamers are not the majority of gamers anymore. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...graphics_x.htm

Quote:

A survey compiled by the Entertainment Software Association and released at E3, the video game industry's major trade show in Los Angeles, found that a slight majority of video game players are now over 18 years of age.

In fact, the average age of game players was 29 and the average age of buyers was 36, with men making up 59% of the playing audience.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by SouthJag

This can't go without correction. No, teenage gamers are not the majority of gamers anymore. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...graphics_x.htm

Although thats not really what this thread is for... thats interesting to see. Maybe the PS3 will do a bit better than I thought. I still think its gonig to follow the PSP route.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Ok I'll bite.

I think this will be the closest generation since SNES/Genesis.

Usually the system that comes out first does the best, but this is a special case because as was noted above the Japan factor will weigh in heavily this time around.

Although the Xbox 360 is already out, and doing fairly well in the US it's doing pretty piss poor in Japan. If last generation is any indication Japanese developers will shy away from it, and because the Wii is such a specialized system chances are you'll see most of the 3rd party games going to the PS3 by default.

I remember back in 2000 when the PS2 hit in Japan it sold like MAD. Not because of the games, but because everyone was using it as a DVD player. Although the PS3 is much more expensive I don't see why that same logic wont carry over into this generation. HD is a huge technological movement. I invision many Japanese people getting a PS3 largely in part for it being their next gen movie player.

That isn't the case in the US. Comming from someone who worked in retail for 5 years in different parts of the country, the American consumer isn't very informed on average. People caught on to DVD late and it was the only game in town. Blu-Ray now is newer than DVD then, more expensive, and more confusing with HD-DVD standing opposed. I say that to say that people here wont see the PS3 as a movie player nearly as much as those in Japan. Just an expensive-as-fuck videogame system. And until the price drops significantly the Xbox 360 should outsell it handily here.

That being said I believe the rabid Sony fanboys will be out in enough force to keep the system afloat. I think Price Point will be a major sellor for the Wii, but I see it being too much of a departure for someone teetering between the Xbox 360 and PS3. The majority of the folks turned off by the PS3's pricepoint will lean towards the Xbox360. Furthermore I don't see the Wii being someone's only next gen system. *

Around 2008 you'll see the PS3 take a sharp turn for the better. By then HD will be bigger than it is now. Blu-ray will be more significant in the consumer consiousness, system price drops will close the price differentials and Japanese developers shitting on the X360 will make the PS3 library become steadily more alluring.

Who will have the most units sold?

This Christmas it'll be:
55-65% Xbox 360
20-30% PS3
15-25% Wii

I see the Xbox 360 losing alot of steam in the two years following and the Wii picking up a bit.

by year end 2008 (total ownership)

I believe you'll see:

35-45% PS3
25-35% Xbox 360
20-30% Wii

Although I believe that the hardware sales will be pretty close I believe that the software to hardware ratio being very high for the PS3, followed by the Wii and 360

Which will have the most third-party games?

As was noted Japan is going to make the difference here. I believe software trends will greatly mirror the current situation.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?

This is the easiest question to answer. Microsoft's BY FAR! In addition to having a great system with loyal customers online networking is right up Microsoft's alley. The others have no current network to speak of and no promise of a good future. I see Nintendo making shocking headway, but neither Sony nor Nintendo have demonstrated a fraction of the dedication that Microsoft has to online gaming.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?

I think a combination of the weaker system specs, my projected hardware sales, and developers not having the eager creativity to develop for the Wii its 3rd party exclusives will lag. Furthermore the proven formula of shotgunning multiplatform releases will prevent alot of Wii exclusives.

and as was said above Japanese developers wont put out software for the 360.

I think you'll see the best exclusives on the Wii, but if I were buying a system and only allowed to play the games that were exclusive to that system I'd by a PS3 because of the quantity of high quality exclusives.

I was speaking idiomatically.

"It's the economy, stupid."

The housing market is slowing. Inflation is rising. The cost of consumer goods is going up. Economic growth is slowing. We make less money now, on average, than our parents did 30 years ago (adjusted for inflation).

Stagflation ftw!!111!!

If we are starting to slide into a recession as 2006 closes and 2007 is just beginning, I see people cutting back on their huge luxury purchases. To fully utilize Xbox 360 or PS3, you need a HDTV. A decent one is at least $800, then you look at the price of the console itself and in the end you are looking at a $1200-$1400 purchase. On the other hand, the Wii will be a $250 purchase total, since a HDTV wouldn't be worth it. When people's ARM's start to rip out from their chests just like the face huggers in the Aliens movies, no one will be buying $1400 game set-ups. At least, not ones that won't be repossessed when the bank takes their house because they can't pay their mortgage because they're paying $5 for a gallon of gas and $10 for a gallon of milk.

It's not just gas that's rising. Now there are news articles every day about the rising cost of just about every consumer good. For example Kellogg just absorbed $180 million due to increased production costs (higher gas/energy prices, higher sugar prices, etc.) and is going to have to pass that on to the consumers. This is happening in most areas in consumer goods. I still don't think this will have too much of a tangible effect by the end of this year, but it will have a psychological effect.

So, I think Sony (and to a lesser extent MS) have an uphill battle with the economy, before you even begin to analyze the gaming industry itself.

Around here the ratio of Wii's that will be sold in stores compared to Xbox 360 + PS3 combined will be about 10:1. Just like the DS's sold out and were hard to find but PSP's could be found even at launch when other areas were completely out (even though our shipments were much, much lower in quantity). So, in my mind, Nintendo had better get producing and fast, or demand will far outstrip supply at least in my area.

In the end, I simply cannot see a $600 console selling nearly as many units as the PS2 did, unless there is at least a 30% price drop by the end of 2007...

And that concludes my "If the sky ain't falling it's 'cause you're not looking up" analysis.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Originally Posted by SouthJag

As a final note, I'd like to say that I'm amazed at how some people see the retail market. The Wii's success seems to be (from the perspectives of many analysts and gamers who know it all) entirely dependent on the fact like people want the cheapest system. However, if that were true, then why did the Gamecube fail to reach the same sales numbers that the Xbox and PS2 did? Consumers do not always purchase so predictably -- if they want something bad enough, they will sacrifice to get it, and that includes gaming systems. Consumers are people who need justification in their purchasing decisions, and if they can justify the PS3 ("My kid really wants one and I know he'd really enjoy it") and its price point, then the transaction has already been finalized.

That's especially true during the holiday season. Nobody wants and hardly anyone has the time to be sold on a particular system. They know what they want and they want it with minimal hassle. If they or whoever they're buying for want a PS3/360/Wii, then that is what they'll get.

I think that you have a point to some extent. It's true that despite having the lower price, Nintendo failed to amass the sales numbers with the Gamecube that Sony and Microsoft had. But you have to consider the price points as well. Why spend $200 for a Gamecube when you can spend $100 more and get a PS2 with a larger library or an Xbox with improved visuals (speaking in terms of prices back towards their inceptions.)

Now we look to the future. We don't know the price yet, but we can assume that the Wii will be roughly $200 give or take. The PS3 on the other hand, will be $600 for the console that everyone is going to want to purchase.

So my question is, will a $400 price differential make more of an impact on the consumer than a $100 price differential?

Keep in mind that like I said, I agree with you to some extent. Some gamers want the PS3 and will do what it takes to get it. Some may not have a problem switching to the somewhat more affordable 360 (like I already have.) But how about the parents just looking to get their kid something affordable? You know just as well as I do that they too play as large a role in the market as the hardcore gamers do.

It's still too early to see, but I think that at least in the early going, the prince of the PS3 will hurt them despite the actual value of the package itself. I'll get all of them anyway, but i'm just a minor figure in the whole scheme of things.

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by Borg1982

Your friend Tyler is the epitome of the video game player I hate the most.

Yeah, but you have to admit, he is a "majority" game player. Ya know, the kind that play Madden, GTA, GT4, and Tony Hawk primarily with other games on the side. We all know "those players" account for like, a large percentage of gamers.

@ Ronz

Thanks for the thoughts man. You have good stuff to say. Could you possibly make your own statement answering the four questions, instead of responding to SouthJag, though? Keeping to stating our personal opinions keeps the "bickering" down, as opposed to resonding to other's statements which gets people riled. It'd be most appreciated.

Thanks guys for playing by the rules. This thread is turning out great so far! Let's hear more opinions!!

Lets the game begain!

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by Dayvon

@ Ronz

Thanks for the thoughts man. You have good stuff to say. Could you possibly make your own statement answering the four questions, instead of responding to SouthJag, though? Keeping to stating our personal opinions keeps the "bickering" down, as opposed to resonding to other's statements which can get people riled. It'd be most appreciated.

Thanks guys for playing by the rules. This thread is turning out great so far! Let's hear more opinions!!

Lets the game begain!

You'll have to forgive me because I really don't post much, but I fail to see the logic of your thread here.

You ask us to answer extremely speculative questions and ask to give our opinions, then ask that we don't respond to others opinons with those of our own.

Doesn't that eliminate the entire purpose?

I'm not trying to destroy your thread here or anything and i'm not trying to contribute to another stupid CONSOLE FANBOY FLAME WAR but I saw part of Southjag's post that I wanted to comment on and so I did so.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Ronz

You'll have to forgive me because I really don't post much, but I fail to see the logic of your thread here.

You ask four extremely speculative questions and ask to give our opinions, then ask that we don't respond to others opinons with those of our own.

Doesn't that eliminate the entire purpose?

I'm not trying to destroy your thread here or anything and i'm not trying to contribute to another stupid CONSOLE FANBOY FLAME WAR but I saw part of Southjag's post that I wanted to comment on and so I did so.

That's cool man. I wasn't trying to chide you, just trying to keep "teh flame warz" away from here. And you did a good job, as I said, and have great things to say.

The idea with the thread is to hear other's opinions and ideas, NOT to convince or change peoples opinions. Hence the, "better to state your opinion not referencing anyone elses" push to the thread. It keeps the hands tied a bit which should keep the tempers from flaring.

If you don't want to respond to the questions, that's cool, though I want to hear your mind on them. If you could hold yourself back from responding to others statements though, that'd be great because it keeps the playing field even and smooth. If everyone can't respond, then the thread can't tank. There are alot of points people have made that I disagree with, or think differently on, but I'm holding back from quoting and commenting, as I'm sure many are. Lets keep it that way. It helps keep the discussion civil and interesting. Thanks!

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Originally Posted by Dayvon

Yeah, but you have to admit, he is a "majority" game player. Ya know, the kind that play Madden, GTA, GT4, and Tony Hawk primarily with other games on the side. We all know "those players" account for like, a large percentage of gamers.

@ Ronz

Thanks for the thoughts man. You have good stuff to say. Could you possibly make your own statement answering the four questions, instead of responding to SouthJag, though? Keeping to stating our personal opinions keeps the "bickering" down, as opposed to resonding to other's statements which gets people riled. It'd be most appreciated.

Thanks guys for playing by the rules. This thread is turning out great so far! Let's hear more opinions!!

Lets the game begain!

I know this is your thread but please try to keep the member moderation to a minimum, especially when you do it in such a patronising fashion.

As for the questions, I think short term the 360 will be on top sales wise but after a year or so the PS3 will take over and become as commonplace as its predecessors. As was stated above, gamers aren't broke students any more, they're young professionals with money to burn. The PS3 is a desirable piece of kit for anyone looking to own the latest cool thing. The 360 will stay popular, mainly because of Live but I see it being many people's second console, much like the Xbox before it.

Nintendo are destined to stay firmly in third place until they wise up and shed their kiddie image. The Gamecube was always seen as a kids console and I imagine the Wii will follow that trend, especially if all the games they bring out have Mario in them. Even kids these days aren't interested in kids games anymore, they all want to play GTA.

Each system will always have its supporters of course but in the overall mass market, Sony will come out top with MS playing second fiddle again and Nintendo claiming they were never interested in the home system market anyway and bringing out twelve new versions of the DS to bolster sales.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by Shin

I know this is your thread but please try to keep the member moderation to a minimum, especially when you do it in such a patronising fashion.

Didn't mean to sound patronising, just trying to keep it civil in here thats all. My apologies Ronz.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Who will have the most units sold?
I foresee the Wii taking this category with relative ease. Its biggest competition would be MSFT, simply because they've already got a year of sales on Nintendo. Still, $200 makes the Wii the most affordable console by far, and what a lot of people overlook is that Nintendo is likely positioning the Wii to be people's additional console, not their only one. Because people can get a 360 and a Wii for the price of a PS3, the "2 consoles are better than 1" mentality will have at least some impact.

Which will have the most third-party games?
There are a lot of ways to approach this one, and all of them hold at least some validity. The 360 stands the greatest chance of getting Western developers on board. The audience is a sure bet, the programming language is easiest to write, and the interface conventions are tried-and-true control sticks and buttons of old. No tilt/gyroscopic stuff like the PS3, and no triangulation like the Wii.

The low price of the Wii, however, makes it a safe investment for small-time developers who want to try something new or risky and get a reasonable return. It's looking like a LOT of people are going to have Wiis and that many of them are ready and willing to accept gimmicky games because the entire console is engineered for a radically different style of play. Also, big-time developers can port their existing games to the Wii with no fear of Wii-mote concerns because it supports both GC controllers and a Wii control pad.

Sony has the existing market domination, and that's attractive to those developers who want a solid ROI with blockbuster titles. Anyone going for graphical prettiness is just about guaranteed to go PS3, as it looks to be THE graphical powerhouse of this generation, even despite recent news of its GPU being scaled back.

Overall, going on current trends, I see PS3 having the most 3rd-party support. However, the Wii could easily clean up with regard to 3rd-parties due to its price point and ability to offer styles of play that nobody else can offer. There's too much ill will in Japan toward MSFT, and that's going to hurt the 360, despite it being easy to publish indie games via Live and the fact that Western developers will find a market with it.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?
Argh. Toughie here. Currently it looks like Microsoft is going to take this one pretty easily. Live is a stable, tried-and-true system that's been (smartly) kept mostly the same from the previous generation. The interaction between players, both in-game and in the form of scoreboards and guilds/teams/clans, is excellent (or so I'm told-not a MSFT gamer myself).

There is one area, however, in which Nintendo holds a ridiculously huge advantage. NinTenNet (not its real name) is free. Free, to many gamers, is huge. Especially to the budget-minded crowd who, surprise surprise, is already going to be enticed by Wii's dirt-cheap price (relatively speaking). The other advantage Nintendo has is its classic game downloads. If they play their cards right, integration between online multiplayer and VC game downloads could be the best thing that ever happened to them. Imagine playing minigames against friends while VC updates or games download. Even playing the old games themselves over the internet. Not saying it's going to happen, but if they can pull it off or even something like it, it could be huge.

The one player I cannot see even coming close is Sony. Their policy of charging premiums for everything combined with their near-nonexistent online offerings at present are just going to slaughter them.

So currently Microsoft for online play, but the big N could prove to be at least a worthy adversary.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?
Wii, no contest. Nintendo consoles have long had awesome exclusive games (Mario Party notwithstanding): look at Eternal Darkness, Tales of Symphonia (I know, PS2 in Japan), Metroid, Zelda, Goldeneye... The signal-to-noise ratio has historically been highest on Nintendo consoles, as they're generally averse to mass-market EA crap like Madden, "Tom Clancy's Yet Another Terrorist Spy Game," and EXXXXTREME FPS like Black. In general, games that teenagers buy to show that they're "moar mature rly honest im an adult i play gta sanananandrayas" have been mostly absent from Nintendo systems in favor of less "gritty" but usually more playable titles. I'm sure this betrays my disdain for superficial violent content for marketing purposes, but I'd rather play a good "kiddie" Ninty title than "RIAA Cash-Cow Rapper's 'INSERT CRIMINAL TERMINOLOGY HERE.'"

Playstation 3 will have Final Fantasy. Oh, joy. Where do I sign up?

How ya doing, buddy?