The Middle East spirals out of control!

Big news as of late. As a result of several Israeli soldiers being killed, and two taken prisoner by Hizbullah militants in Israel, the IDF has launched attacks against Lebanon, which constitutes Hizbullah's base of operations, as well as attacks on the Gaza and Palestine's Hamas-led government, which Israel claims is partially responsible for the kidnappings.

Quote:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Sto...820163,00.html

Israel laid siege to Lebanon yesterday bombing Beirut airport, blockading sea ports and declaring its northern neighbour's airspace closed to everything but Israeli jets launching waves of attacks.
Hizbullah, the Lebanese militia group, responded by bombarding Israel with scores of rockets, some of which for the first time hit a major city - the port of Haifa about 20 miles from the border.

Israeli air force planes ranged freely across Lebanon, bombing villages, army bases, bridges and a television station as Israel intensified its campaign to win the release of two soldiers captured by Hizbullah on the border on Wednesday.

The air raids also severed the main road between Beirut and Syria's capital, Damascus. Israeli gunboats turned ships away from Lebanese ports and last night flames were billowing from fuel tanks after a second attack on the capital's crippled airport. At least 50 Lebanese people were killed in the assault, including 17 members of two families.

Hizbullah's rocket attacks on Israeli towns and kibbutz killed a woman and sent families fleeing from their homes for bomb shelters or areas away from the border. No one was injured by two rockets that fell on Haifa but they had an important psychological impact because Hizbullah has not been able to hit targets so deep into Israel before nor such a large city.

As the violence escalated it appeared to polarise reaction, with the US and EU taking markedly different stances. The US president, George Bush, said Israel had the right to defend itself but cautioned against bringing down the Lebanese administration. "The concern here is that any activities by Israel to protect herself will weaken that government ... topple that government, and we have made that clear in our discussions," Mr Bush said during a visit to Germany. "Having said all that, people need to protect themselves."

He also said that Syria needed to be held to account for supporting Hizbullah and Hamas.

But the EU said the sea and air blockade was unjustified and it deplored the "disproportionate" use of force and the loss of civilian life. The UN secretary general, Kofi Annan, said he would despatch a three-person team to the region to try to defuse the crisis. The Israel-Lebanon crisis, coupled with anxiety over the mounting confrontation over Iran's nuclear ambitions, drove the price of crude oil to a record $76 yesterday.

Hizbullah is demanding the release of Arab security prisoners in Israeli jails in return for the two captured soldiers and a third soldier held in the Gaza Strip after he was snatched by Palestinian militias last month.

Israel dropped leaflets warning residents of a Beirut suburb where the Hizbullah's leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, lives to evacuate their homes. Israel's justice minister, Haim Ramon, suggested that the Hizbullah chief could be a target.

"All those who plan the attacks, all those who allow such terror activities, are also a target," he told Israel radio. The Israeli military told a meeting of the government's security cabinet that it favoured also attacking crucial infrastructure such as power plants. On Wednesday, the army said it would bomb Lebanon "back 20 years" if the soldiers were not released. Israeli tanks were gathering on the border for what may be a wider ground operation.

An Israeli army spokesman, Erik Snider, said the blockade of Lebanon could go on for some time.

"We're trying to isolate Lebanon to prevent attacks from Lebanon against Israeli soldiers and civilians. The airport has traditionally been a hub for smuggling weapons to Hizbullah as well as ports along the sea. We're operating from the air as well as the sea in addition to artillery fire," he said.

Israeli said it feared the two captured soldiers - Ehud Goldwasser, 31, and Eldad Regev, 26 - could be taken to Iran, and that the blockade and attacks would make that more difficult. The Lebanese government yesterday appealed for an immediate ceasefire, saying it did not endorse the Hizbullah attacks.

But Israel appeared determined to press ahead with the assault, saying it is responding to an "act of war" by the Lebanese government because it contains members of Hizbullah. Israel also kept up its campaign against Hamas in Gaza by blowing up the offices of the Palestinian foreign minister, Mahmoud al-Zahar. Israel launched an assault on the Gaza Strip nearly three weeks ago, sending tanks and troops in on the ground and destroying the main power plant and government offices in the territory, after a soldier, Gilad Shalit, was captured by Palestinian militias.

More than 80 Palestinians, including women and children, have been killed in the subsequent assault on Gaza.

Residents of the northern Israeli town of Nahariya fled their homes yesterday after a rocket killed a 40 year-old woman and wounded 29 other people.

Exciting stuff, wouldn't you say? There's some speculation that since Israel and Hizbullah act as proxies for the United States and Iran, respectively, that they could precipitate a conflict between the two powers in the region. Especially if Israel launches attacks on Syria.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

I think 5 years down the line, we'll all be screwed.


I mean the stock exchange is falling like mad because of this war, although I feel it's a pussy reason (if I don't know what I'm talking about in this regard, please feel free to put me in my place), who knows what kind of madness might begin if this war prompts us to start fighting seriously again, especially with Iraq and North Korea still being concerns.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

If the past is any indication, that stuff never really lasts long. Israel usually blows up a number of old Soviet tanks, kill a few soldiers and civilians, perhaps down a few MiGs, then things settle down after a while. I'm not saying that those deaths aren't a tragedy, but for the time at hand it hasn't even officially been turned in a war, and if it does, it won't last long.

I'm not sure what exactly could really make the shit hit the fan. As long as a nuke doesn't explode somewhere, I don't think it'll degenerate.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

I just hope the US can sit back and go to a temporary "sleeping giant" sort of state. This mess in the Middle East and the tensions in Asia culminating will make things quite intriguing.

But like Butchere says, these little wars pop out quite frequently in the Middle East. We'll have to wait and see on the duration.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Originally Posted by YeOldeButchere

but for the time at hand it hasn't even officially been turned in a war, and if it does, it won't last long.

I wouldn't be sure about that; most of the Arab powers have gotten stronger militarily since the last Arab-Israeli war. While this isn't likely to come into play so long as the Israelis stick to beating up on Lebanon and the Palestinians, if they attack Syria, it'd be likely that the Syrians could hold them off, as well as bring Russia into the war on Syria's side.

I am curious why kidnapping Israeli soldiers and holding them hostage has suddenly become popular, though; it doesn't serve any logical purpose and results in sustained Israeli attacks. It certainly doesn't help the Palestinians with their problems.

I was speaking idiomatically.

Originally Posted by Lord Styphon

I am curious why kidnapping Israeli soldiers and holding them hostage has suddenly become popular, though; it doesn't serve any logical purpose and results in sustained Israeli attacks. It certainly doesn't help the Palestinians with their problems.

The only possible reason I can imagine for such actions would be to attempt to use the captives as bartering tools to get their own members out of Israeli prisons.
Of course this is shortsighted foolishness, but I don't think it is reasonable to expect any advanced political understanding from these turds.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Quote:

That crisis began June 25 when Palestinian militants dug a tunnel out of the Gaza Strip and attacked an army position inside Israel, seizing Cpl. Gilad Shalit and demanding the release of 1,500 prisoners held by Israel. Although Israel has made prisoner exchanges in the past, Olmert ruled out any negotiations for Shalit's return, saying that would only encourage more kidnappings.

Source.
Basically, they won't negotiate it seems.

FELIPE NO

Yeah, I suspect the reason they took those soldiers is that after the capture of that first guy a month or so ago, they noticed it produced an unusually strong reaction with Israel. They probably thought that while Israel had gone with a substantial strike force in Palestine, they wouldn't do the same in Lebanon, a fully independent country. Seems like they were wrong.

Now the thing is, those hostages are something they'd probably want to get rid of after seeing what happened. The problem is that returning them wouldn't be seen too well by the more radical people associated to the kidnappers' cause, if they're not the ones behind it. Killing them is no good: if they don't present proof that the hostages are dead, Israel will continue their operations, and if they do, by sending a few severed heads back to Israel or whatever else, well, no good can come out of that either. Seems like those hostages have become a liability.

The worst case scenario here, baring a nuke going off as I said earlier, is probably something like what Styphon said. If they move the hostages in Syria then it might become a bigger problem. I suppose it's not entirely out of question; if their initial plan was to use Lebanon as a shield, and that failed, they might seek a bigger shield. What happens then is unclear. Of course it's not limited to Syria, the initial article mentioned something about the potential transfer of the hostages in Iran. That would be particularly... entertaining. It likely wouldn't take long for a "stray" squad of israeli aircrafts to "accidentally" open fire on Iran's nuclear facilities. I mean, if Israel is already there, might has well take advantage of it, and that might just please the EU enough that there isn't too much condemnation from them. But that's pretty much just speculation for now.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

Originally Posted by Lord Styphon

...as well as bring Russia into the war on Syria's side.

Do you really think Russia would risk getting involved, especially against Israel? I mean, wouldn't that have some major repercussions? And is Russia even in any state to be flexing that sort of muscle?

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Russia and Syria (as well as Iran) have developed closer relations in recent years. These have taken the form of arms sales (in the form of new a air defense system, among other things), training, and diplomatic assistance against the United States if need be. The Russian Navy is also reestablishing its Mediterranean Squadron, and reestablishing bases in Syrian ports to support it.

If Russia has been willing to risk angering the United States for years now, as well as Israel, I fail to see why they wouldn't involve themselves if Israel attacks a country that they have considerable interest in defending.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

This pretty much is an open war already and its only profiteers are Hezbollah, Hamas and their supporters in Damascus and Teheran.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Russia intervening on Syria's behalf is ludicrous. Nuclear relations between us and the Russians still operate on MAD. So unless the Russians are perfectly fine engaging Americans in a limited conflict (which they'll lose) they'll be sending off a nuclear tripwire.

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Originally Posted by the article

As the violence escalated it appeared to polarise reaction, with the US and EU taking markedly different stances. The US president, George Bush, said Israel had the right to defend itself but cautioned against bringing down the Lebanese administration. "The concern here is that any activities by Israel to protect herself will weaken that government ... topple that government, and we have made that clear in our discussions, Mr Bush said during a visit to Germany. "Having said all that, people need to protect themselves."

George Bush has no grounds upon which to criticise any nation who bring down the government of another country. Not without indulging in flagrant hypocrisy. In fact, unless he offers U.S. support to Israel, I think that he would be guilty of hypocrisy.

I'm not saying that I think that the U.S. should support Israel in this matter, but there isn't one rule for America, and one for the rest of the world.

I was speaking idiomatically.

My neighbors are stuck in Lebanon. They were supposed to fly back the day that the airport got bombed.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

That's why I'd never travel to that part of the world. It's so insane over there. Those people are just nuts. I'm not a political buff at all, but I do know that Israel has a very strong army and nuclear program, and can more than hold it's own.

I just hope no US soldiers that are stationed anywhere in this mess get killed or else we have no choice but to get involved.

How ya doing, buddy?

If U.S. soldiers are anywhere nearby, the Israelis will probably take great care NOT to do anything stupid. If Israel loses the backing of the United States, it'll be toast.

This war is not acceptable. The Lebanese people shouldn't have to suffer because of the actions of Hezbollah.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

Originally Posted by Rock

This pretty much is an open war already and its only profiteers are Hezbollah, Hamas and their supporters in Damascus and Teheran.

What kind of nonsense is this? How can they be "the only profiteers"? How can they be "profiteers" in any way???
They wage the war because they hate Israel's presence, no profit gained, physical or psychological, if you were camping in my backyard and i pick a fight with you how the hell can that fight be profitable to me?

Truth is, Israel's refusal to negotiate is correct politics towards that sort of threatening. I wouldn't say it was a dumb move by Hezbullah, they're desperate, what else can they do but act randomly like this?
The bombing is sheer idiocy on Israel's part, like Onyx said, why should the Lebanese suffer for Hezbullah's actions?

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Yahoo News

UNITED NATIONS - Lebanon accused
Israel on Friday of launching "a widespread barbaric aggression" aimed at bringing the small Mideast nation to its knees and urged the international community to end the military offensive.

((Full Article))

Didn't Lebanon start this in the first place?

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Well, to go back to the start, Hamas militants did by kidnapping that Israeli corporal, and then Hizbullah escalated the conflict by killing eight and capturing two more.

Hizbullah doesn't necessarily represent the interests of the Palestinian people, but they are, however, a legitimate part of Palestinian society. They have a political wing and their own media network, as well as having seats in the Lebanese parliament. The Israelis are attacking Lebanese infrastructure, because it is that very infrastructure that is used by Hizbullah to further its own ends.

One could argue from the Israeli standpoint, that the Lebanese haven't done enough to reign in Hizbullah, which isn't exactly fair since in many respects Hizbullah is stronger than the Lebanese government. However, one could argue that Israel needs to step into the region to retrieve their soldiers and severely damage the capabilities of Hizbullah in the Lebanese's stead.

What'll be most important about this situation is whether or not the conflict will spread into Syria. If Hizbullah's aim was to start a regional conflict, then releasing information that the captured soldiers are in Syria would be a good way to do it.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by CryHavoc

What kind of nonsense is this? How can they be "the only profiteers"? How can they be "profiteers" in any way???
They wage the war because they hate Israel's presence, no profit gained, physical or psychological, if you were camping in my backyard and i pick a fight with you how the hell can that fight be profitable to me?

That's only a fair analogy if there's some kind of genuine dispute as to whose backyard it really is.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

I think the best thing to come out of this war was the complaint that the Israeli bombing of the airport in Beirut was done to destroy the Lebanese tourism industry. Is that actually serious.

I was speaking idiomatically.

Originally Posted by Bradylama

If Hizbullah's aim was to start a regional conflict, then releasing information that the captured soldiers are in Syria would be a good way to do it.

Releasing the information? If a bunch of nerds on an internet forum know that information, shouldn't Israeli military officials?

Or is the idea of the soldiers being in Syria just hypothetical?

Also, why would Hizbullah start a regional conflict they can't win?

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Quite simply, they didn't anticipiate that it would escalate this way. They figured Israel would just bargain for some more prisoners, now they've started some real shit.

On top of that, Syria and Iran are already supporting Hezbollah and at least Syria is threatening to join the conflict if it's attacked. And yes, the idea that the soldiers are in Syria IS hypothetical, why would you need clear clarification on that?

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by Lord Styphon

I am curious why kidnapping Israeli soldiers and holding them hostage has suddenly become popular, though; it doesn't serve any logical purpose and results in sustained Israeli attacks. It certainly doesn't help the Palestinians with their problems.

Perhaps the reasoning behind the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers had no altruistic reasons for the Palestinian peoples to begin with.

Originally Posted by Onyx

This war is not acceptable. The Lebanese people shouldn't have to suffer because of the actions of Hezbollah.

I think Israel feels that the peoples of Lebanon shouldn't be haboring Hezbollah, an organization which has, and will continue to cause, death and destruction for the Israeli people. Therefore, to the Israeli government, the lives of Israeli citizens are worth more to the peoples of Israel than the lives of the people of Lebanon, and certainly far more than the lives of Hezbollah.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

The reason they kidnapped Israeli soldiers in the first place is because a couple years ago, Hamas was able to negotiate the release of 400 prisoners for two soldiers and a handful of corpses.

Jam it back in, in the dark.