America to Disintegrate in 2010

....

According to a Russian Professor, anyway, after a ruinous civil war breaks out in mid-2009.

Source: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S. - WSJ.com

Spoiler:

For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously.

(snip)

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces.

Of course, my first reaction after reading this piece was to laugh out very loudly indeed. The face of it looks much like wishful thinking on the part of a quack Russian academic. And he was in fact treated like a quack for the better part of a decade.

But! My interactions with lurker in chat have proven to me that I know absolutely nothing about how Americans believe. Thus, while I may personally think that such an outcome is ludicrous, perhaps I might be mistaken in my belief!

So, I hereby pose this question to the people who live in America, who work in America, and who know America best. Is there, in fact, a "45-55% chance" that such a thing will happen next year?

How ya doing, buddy?

I, for one, welcome our European overlords with open arms and fresh-baked croissants.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

This dude is crazy.

Like Canada wants shit to do with any part of your backwards-ass country that isn't the North-East.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

It's HELTER SKELTER!

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

The Texas Republic, eh? Sounds rather nostalgic :3 Meh. It already feels like Little Mexico, as it stands~

I was speaking idiomatically.

Mexico has enough of its own economic problems without shouldering the woes of the American South, and the likelihood of Carolinians or Tennesseans consenting to have anything to do with the EU is laughable.

The essential function of this article is to rile up the retrograde knobsuckers that comprise the WSJ's readership. That sound you just heard was a thousand Billy-Bobs resubscribing to THE ONLY PAPER WILLING TO TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT COMMIE AMERICA-HATERS.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Sounds like someone was pissed that Obama won.

FELIPE NO

Quote:

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

If he said 2030.....2040 or something along those lines

Then I might be able to take him seriously. If we went through 8-20 years of constant economic shit (you know, a prolonged depression) then his theory might make fucking sense. But 2010? It would require.....a complete COLLAPSE of EVERYTHING SIMULTANEOUSLY like in 'Live Free or Die Hard' (That is, you know....implausible fucking fiction with Bruce Willis saving the day), and while fragile, the system is far more robust than that.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

I'm not worried. The world will end in 2012 as predicted by the Mayans (who had technology so far beyond ours it's mind boggling), so I'm okay with being an honorary Canadian for a few years. Look, I'll even start developing opinions about your crappy politics! Fuck Harper!

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by Denicalis

This dude is crazy.

Like Canada wants shit to do with any part of your backwards-ass country that isn't the North-East.

I know it's embarassing to admit you actually want Detroit, but it's okay. I understand completely.



There's nowhere I can't reach.

Originally Posted by Pangalin

Mexico has enough of its own economic problems without shouldering the woes of the American South, and the likelihood of Carolinians or Tennesseans consenting to have anything to do with the EU is laughable.

The essential function of this article is to rile up the retrograde knobsuckers that comprise the WSJ's readership. That sound you just heard was a thousand Billy-Bobs resubscribing to THE ONLY PAPER WILLING TO TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT COMMIE AMERICA-HATERS.

The Russian clearly knows nothing about the US. If you think the Carolinas and anything generally south of the Mason-Dixon line wants anything to do with us Yanks (or even Europe), you've got to be... well, a foreigner.

I'm pretty sure the Northeast wouldn't mind getting rid of the rest of the country, though. Particularly those Bible-beating regions of the nation. I wonder if we could pair up with California, Oregon, and Washington or something. Those guys seem a little more sane than the rest of the country.

I thought the little map there was a joke, honestly. He can't be fucking serious. Texas with Mexican influence? CANADA having something to do with the midwest?!

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by Sassafrass

I wonder if we could pair up with California, Oregon, and Washington or something. Those guys seem a little more sane than the rest of the country.

Don't let their traditionally Democrat presidential voting record fool you, those places have a ton of backwoods rednecks too. I mean, fucking California passed prop 8, that right there should tell you what you need to know.

Not that NE america doesn't have their share of asswipes either. Middle of Pennsylvania, anyone?

Quote:

CANADA having something to do with the midwest?!

The border states are essentially half-canadian. For more information, see Styphon's post.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Originally Posted by a lurker

Don't let their traditionally Democrat presidential voting record fool you, those places have a ton of backwoods rednecks too. I mean, fucking California passed prop 8, that right there should tell you what you need to know.

Northern California to be specific for those rednecks. Though I think the bulk of Prop 8 was shouldered by black votes, wasn't it? Mind you I don't have any current data on hand, so that's conjecture based on what I heard or read at the time. The state is extremely diverse, but that outcome still came as somewhat of a shock until I pieced what I knew together.

I was speaking idiomatically.

Originally Posted by Rotardblase

Though I think the bulk of Prop 8 was shouldered by black votes, wasn't it?

Not even close. Now, percentage wise, blacks voted for Prop 8 more than hispanics, whites or asians, but numbers-wise they were barely significant. I think more hispanics rather than blacks voted for it.

How ya doing, buddy?

YouTube Video

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by a lurker

Not even close. Now, percentage wise, blacks voted for Prop 8 more than hispanics, whites or asians, but numbers-wise they were barely significant. I think more hispanics rather than blacks voted for it.

Are there any specific sites that still have that data on hand? I still want to take a look, in any case.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

Anyone whos anyone knows that the map in the first post is actually from the Shadowrun sourcebook.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Rotardblase

Are there any specific sites that still have that data on hand? I still want to take a look, in any case.

well there's some data analysis from our good friends at fivethirtyeight.com if that's your deal. It also brought up something I forgot about until now - across all ethnicities, the younger voters voted against prop 8 while the older ones voted more for it. so blame the old folks.

CNN also apparently has exit poll data. The page isn't loading for me properly though but it might work for you.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Originally Posted by a lurker

I'm not worried. The world will end in 2012 as predicted by the Mayans (who had technology so far beyond ours it's mind boggling), so I'm okay with being an honorary Canadian for a few years. Look, I'll even start developing opinions about your crappy politics! Fuck Harper!

Congratulations. You have now become an honorary Canadian.

Additional Spam: We don't really need Detroit. The majority of the Red Wings players are already Canadian.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by Lord Styphon

I know it's embarassing to admit you actually want Detroit, but it's okay. I understand completely.

Sorry, couldn't hear you over the sound of swarming Killer Bs.



You'll have to speak up. I can't hear you over my team being 28-5-4.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

There are no "rich" states. Almost all 50 states have budget shortfalls right now. So the foundation of his predictions are bullshit. Since states can't deficit spend like the federal government this binds the states even closer to the central federal government. (ie; bailouts) I'm also pretty sure (like more then 55% sure) that Texans/Californians/etc are a lot more loyal to the Union then Ukrainians/Georgians were to the Russian Empire/Soviet Union. It's not like a hundred years ago when everyone identified themselves with their state as opposed to considering themselves an American. All those petty little social issues that divide the states into blue/red will become non-existent quicklike if we find ourselves in a depression.

While a lot things can end a country an economic depression isn't one of them. It won't be pretty, but even if America defaults on it's huge foreign debt and destroys it's currency through hyperinflation. We'll survive 'cause we did that once already. As the old/new saying goes; "Not worth a continental/greenback". The Revolution against the rich fatcats and Jewish bankers seems more likely. Maybe another constitutional convention that tries to reform/overthrow a discredited/draconian central government. Probably not even that. Just a bit of urban/rural unrest. There's a lot that could happen besides the American Civil War II, with successor states prevailing that lack any historical or geographical cohesion emerging victorious.

America losing it's status as the sole superpower will do little to undermind the unity of the country. Far from it. The world will become a less stable place when differing centers of power compete for supremacy like in the last century. The popular American response will likely be one of increasing isolationism. Which will have a binding effect.

I was speaking idiomatically.

Originally Posted by a lurker

Not even close. Now, percentage wise, blacks voted for Prop 8 more than hispanics, whites or asians, but numbers-wise they were barely significant. I think more hispanics rather than blacks voted for it.

It's kinda hard to generate those generalizations by race. I think it'd be more significantly apparent if you looked at the statistics in terms of what proportions of the people who voted yes belonged to what religion.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Voting on Prop 8
Religion     (Total)   Yes   No
Protestant (43%)    65%  35%
Catholic (30%)       64%  36% 
Jewish (5%)           N/A   N/A
Other (6%)            N/A   N/A
None (16%)           10%  90%

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com\

Vote By Church Attendance (Total)  Yes  No
Weekly (32%)                              84% 16%
Occasionally (44%)                       46% 54%
Never (21%)                                17% 83%


Vote by Church Attendance (Total)  Yes  No
More Than Weekly (10%)               N/A  N/A
Weekly (22%)                              82% 18%
Monthly (13%)                             N/A  N/A
A Few Times a Year (30%)             41% 59%
Never (21%)                                17% 83%


White Protestant Born-Again/Evangelical?  (Total)  Yes  No
White Prot. Born-Again (13%)                       N/A  N/A
White Prot. Not Born-Agn (16%)                    N/A  N/A
All Others (71%)                                         46% 54%

White Evangelical/Born-Again? (Total)  Yes  No
Yes (17%)                               81%  19%
No (83%)                                48%  52%

This following statistic is possibly the best one ever.

View of Government (Total)  Yes  No
Should Do More (51%)          36% 64%
Doing Too Much (41%)         61%  39%

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by Rotardblase

Northern California to be specific for those rednecks. Though I think the bulk of Prop 8 was shouldered by black votes, wasn't it? Mind you I don't have any current data on hand, so that's conjecture based on what I heard or read at the time. The state is extremely diverse, but that outcome still came as somewhat of a shock until I pieced what I knew together.

I would say that Central California has more rednecks... what with all the farms and small backwards towns and stuff. I usually think of Northern CA as the haven for oddballs and people who want to start communes in the forests, but maybe it's just the people I know .

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

That map doesn't make any sense at all. Maine would go to Europe? Are you KIDDING me? There's enough fucking canadians here that maine may as well be a part of that blithering shithole of a country that apparently charges 4 cents more for a pack of cigarettes that it makes it worth it to bitch out any clerk who doesnt give them enough of a "discount"

Jam it back in, in the dark.