Peak Oil

REAL EVENTS -> The world's production (extraction) of oil is reaching the peakand no longer can produce MORE then the demand from countries like USA, CHINA, India and others.



Using this chart, you can clearly see the very significant increase of the oil prices since 2004.....let's debate the causes...

1. Geopolitical Conflict in Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela, Afghanistan and more
2. Increase steady oil demand from CHINA, India, and USA?
3. Oil Depletion - aka Peak Oil (Production or extraction rate slows...with increased demand)
4. Lack of new Oil Fields being found.
5. World Environmental restriction on drilling in natural reserve.
6. World Over Population....

The world is on it's way to a World Energy War, Iraq war is just the tip of the ice-berg. The world war will start when IRAN got attacked and those who had big OIL contracts with IRAN (China?) will start to be trigger happy on the red button. IRAN vow to disrupt oil supply if their interest is attacked, and when that happens...it's the end of life.

Let me explain the importance of a long period of time WITHOUT OIL.

1. There shall be DARKNESS, with majority of the world heavy dependence of OIL, Natural Gas, and other fossil Fuel to generate electricity...there shall be millions of people who cannot afford the high OIL price thus live in darkness. Unless there is alternative like hydro-electricity or nuclear...which will be more or less more expensive when demands starts to increase.

2. There shall be violence, when crops that are heavily Dependant on Oil Base pesticide and natural gas base fertilizers, Oil consuming heavy machinery to plow, seed, water, harvest, package, transport, deliver to your shopping market. Without food, people will starve and when that happens...?

3. Almost everything we see in front of us is oil base by product....imagine losing them? Research on OIL Base product and be amazed.

4. Economy will crash, when the world is going through inflation and depression many people with outstanding debts will be bankrupt when the OIL prices reaches $100 to $150 per barrel...because they no longer can afford transportation cost, electricity bills, heating bills, food cost and many highly needed medical cost.

5. Global warming will accelerate when the world starts burning more COAL and generate more CO2 gases to the air, causing the world warming to a unbearable state....are you warm yet? Fresh water is going to be a very scarce commoditiy....

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Sauce of the chart, please.

Anyway, when I read stuff like this I get scared. Seems like shit is always on the verge of getting fucked up. Global warming is a good example.

I'm wondering, why aren't alternate power sources that don't require burning fuel adequate for the entire planet?

There's nowhere I can't reach.

The Peak Oil theories have been around for a long time. There's nothing new about the idea, and nobody is certain whether or not we've hit the peak yet. As for alternative sources, they probably would be adequate if the world was really committed to the idea of using them.

We're probably going to have to give up some of our energy-expensive habits, though. I can't imagine that the brave new world of post-peak oil will permit us as much energy to use for recreational purposes as we currently have. I think we'll have to give up a lot of our fun and cool devices to keep going.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

That's a small price to pay for life not sucking ass 100%.

How ya doing, buddy?

Quote:

5. Global warming will accelerate when the world starts burning more COAL and generate more CO2 gases to the air, causing the world warming to a unbearable state....are you warm yet? Fresh water is going to be a very scarce commoditiy....

Bear in mind that man-caused global warming is still not proven. National conventions of experts in the field have met (headed by Dr. North who teaches at my university), stating that man-kind isn't causing Global Warming. But that's a whole 'nother chestnut in itself. We've had hotter periods than this, we've had steeper heating events (see Hothouse events). It's all natural and people are trying to intermingle politics and science. Much like religion and politics, it typically doesn't mix well.

I largely blame overpopulation for oil prices. China is climbing into the market and oil production is going down. Plus, there are lots of regulations... Way too many. To boot, US has a bajillion different types of blends of fuel. The testy mixing & concocting process easily tacks on $0.10-$0.30 due to all the nitpicking many states have on fuel regulations. Then you have these messes like the Middle East with Iran, or the situation in Venezuela with the crazy bastard in charge there.

Originally Posted by Soluzar

We're probably going to have to give up some of our energy-expensive habits, though. I can't imagine that the brave new world of post-peak oil will permit us as much energy to use for recreational purposes as we currently have. I think we'll have to give up a lot of our fun and cool devices to keep going.

Remember -- necessity is the mother of all invention.

I was speaking idiomatically.

Quote:

Bear in mind that man-caused global warming is still not proven. National conventions of experts in the field have met (headed by Dr. North who teaches at my university), stating that man-kind isn't causing Global Warming. But that's a whole 'nother chestnut in itself. We've had hotter periods than this, we've had steeper heating events (see Hothouse events). It's all natural and people are trying to intermingle politics and science. Much like religion and politics, it typically doesn't mix well.

No one has the facts yet for global warming, but shouldn't the possibly of a "global-warmed future" prompt a serious response?

Personally, I think the Peak Oil theory really needs to be examined. Do any of you guys realize that "Peak Oil" was conceived by Hubbert in the 50's, who worked for Royal Dutch Shell? In the 1950's the prices of crude oil were dropping because of the abundance of oil. How convienent is it that Hubbert proposes a theory that says oil is actually scarce...and almost immediately prices of oil begin to rise? And it's also pretty ironic that the amount of world petroleum reserves have doubled since then.

And Hubbert's prediction was way off. According to his original study, we'd have run out of oil by now. The studies have been adjusted, but I don't know if I trust them.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Originally Posted by Onyx

Personally, I think the Peak Oil theory really needs to be examined. Do any of you guys realize that "Peak Oil" was conceived by Hubbert in the 50's, who worked for Royal Dutch Shell? In the 1950's the prices of crude oil were dropping because of the abundance of oil. How convienent is it that Hubbert proposes a theory that says oil is actually scarce...and almost immediately prices of oil begin to rise? And it's also pretty ironic that the amount of world petroleum reserves have doubled since then.

Hubbert's study was based on American production of oil. He was spot-on, predicting peak US oil production ~15 years before it occurred. The formula was expanded and applied to world-wide shortly thereafter and came up with something around half a century later being peak year or something. I can't recall, but I think his prediction for global peak was in the mid 90's. Folks are saying '04 or '05 are the years. There are many more variables that kicked in, but his estimate is still very sound.

Hubbert stated that production would hit a maximum. Of course once you hit a maximum, prices go up as you go back down. Production was very high, there was a lot of petrol. Once it hit the peak and the backed-up supply began to funnel out, you have to raise the price so that supply won't vanish too fast, causing a shortage.

Hubbert's research was anything but biased if you're insinuating that.

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by Eleo

That's a small price to pay for life not sucking ass 100%.

I never said it wasn't a small price to pay. In the event that it does happen within my lifetime, I shall adapt. I just wonder what exactly will be sacrificed. I can't help thinking that broadcast TV would be the first thing to go, which I wouldn't even miss.

Originally Posted by Gechmir

Remember -- necessity is the mother of all invention.

Naturally I'd like to believe that... however there are limits to the concept. If I fell from a tall building, it would be necessary for me to invent some way to save myself, but most likely impossible, due to a lack of material and resources on hand.

How ya doing, buddy?

Environmental Luddites cream themselves over the prospect of Peak Oil. Not that I am skeptical of this occuring, rather, I adhere to the concept and believe that we have if not are on the way within the next decade of reaching that stage.

Of course, there are some issues that counter the Peak Oil argument, such as the presence of sources that were once economically unviable but now feasible once oil prices got higher (e.g. Alberta oil shales, Colorado tar sands). So in essence, we may have mapped nearly all potential sources, but not all potential sources have been tapped and depleted. The other is that continual technological innovation will eventually reduce demand for petroleum. This has been ongoing steadily but has been completely overshadowed by population growth.

What I would hope for is that within the next 20 years or so, most of the developed world would devise means of shifting our resources away from petroleum and into more renewable forms of energy. However, currently we don't have a lot of vision going around thinking on how this is to come about. I suppose the doomsday message that Peak Oil usually comes with is the only way to get things going.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Soluzar

Naturally I'd like to believe that... however there are limits to the concept. If I fell from a tall building, it would be necessary for me to invent some way to save myself, but most likely impossible, due to a lack of material and resources on hand.

Solar, electric, and various types of renewable sources of energy stirred up initially during the Oil Crisis our parents had to deal with. They're dormant on the surface but things are churning underneath. The mass amount of America and other nations may seem "dumb" about this, but the powers-that-be know about peak oil. Things are being created and tested, but the majority is concerned about maintaining the status quo. Just because you don't see/read about it much doesn't mean that it's dead-in-the-water.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Could Prosthetic's post be any more Armageddon-esque?

Originally Posted by Eleo

when I read stuff like this I get scared.

I get scared any time an American uses the word "shall." THERE SHALL BE DARKNESS!

On topic, though. Call me self-absorbed, but at this point I'm more concerned about the immediate impact this is going to have on me personally. I think it's a bit premature to start predicting an all-out energy war. What I am concerned about is how my husband and I are going to get to work every day. I heard a news report yesterday that analysts are predicting $4/gallon gasoline prices before the end of summer.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

http://hytechapps.com/aquygen

Quit worrying.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Will that stuff work in regular cars, or will we all have to go out and buy specially designed cars. And if so, who's going to manufacture them if we're in the middle of Armageddon?

EDIT: Did you check out the lease payments on the generator? Good lord, regular gas is cheaper than that.

I was speaking idiomatically.

Think about it. Even if you have to buy a new car, how much will you save if you can fill up with tap water?

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

But you have to have the generator that converts tap water into this Aquygen stuff, and the monthly lease payments are very expensive. Also, it's not very practical to think that everyone would be able to afford the lease payments, OR the new car. And even if everyone could, they couldn't possibly manufacture enough of them in time to save thousands and thousands of people from getting fired from their jobs because of not being able to get there.

FELIPE NO

Well, Alice, it'll hit $3-4/gal if this Iran thing goes apeshit. Iran can cut off all oil to us since we're supporting Israel (if Isreal jabs at them and they get jittery). Venezuela can just as well cut things off.

If we were drilling in ANWR or off the coast of Florida more, we'd be in the clear. But you have environmental groups opposing any and all drilling activity in the regions. If we could tap into those, we'd be able to support ourselves more, or fall back on it in instances like this. Older drilling sites are receiving upwellings of oil, and we're starting to tap back into those. But still, making use of ANWR and the continental shelves more would be a very good thing.

Bear in mind that the media in general runs around like a chicken with its head cut off at points like this. Bad news sells, as we all know. The analysts could've been two guys they asked at a coffee shop that morning who said "four dollars" without crunching numbers. Wait and see, of course.

If gas gets pricier, it just gets pricier. You just set aside more money for fuel. Shortages are where it gets scary. And this pricing is to help cushion that. I'd advise installing locks on your gas tanks like the good-ol'-days.

A major point Prosthetic doesn't touch on is that sure, oil and gas are going to peak. But they won't empty out at the same time. Nor will they COMPLETELY vanish. When things start getting tight, the researchers on alternatives will get lots of funding, and will strap down to find an answer. Given technology and how advanced it is, it's a matter of attention and funding to find alternative sources. Man-kind can do a lot if it puts its time into it.

The points he bullets are the absolute worst-case scenario. This will be seen over the horizon, it won't just go *BAM* done and everything goes horribly wrong.

I still hold to the Global Warming one being a crock. If anything, you'd see lots of smog, issues with respiratory functions in certain regions, and lots of acid rain.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

Originally Posted by AliceNWondrland

But you have to have the generator that converts tap water into this Aquygen stuff, and the monthly lease payments are very expensive. Also, it's not very practical to think that everyone would be able to afford the lease payments, OR the new car. And even if everyone could, they couldn't possibly manufacture enough of them in time to save thousands and thousands of people from getting fired from their jobs because of not being able to get there.

Compare it to say computers. Fifteen years ago, when personal computers were not in every home, basically, computers were really expensive. But over time, the prices have significantly come down, because the greater demand for them prompted manufacturers to significantly increase production, lowering their costs, which was reflected in the decrease in prices for computers. I imagine something like this would work in much the same way.

edit: o god why am I posting in PP.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Yeah, Alice... criminy. If the history of technology tells us anything, it's that what's expensive today will cost 100 bucks tomorrow.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

But that won't help the manufacturers spit enough of them out to actually help a large number of people if gas prices suddenly shoot up to $6/gallon or we suddenly enter into a state of such severe shortage that only "connected" people have the opportunity to buy it.

Wow. That was a long sentence.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Once a nice alternative is found that works, it'll be blown up across the news and tons of companies will huddle into the industry. Maybe DVD players would be an example? Or maybe not. Anyhow, once something comes up that works and can successfully be subbed in, it'll be a huge, booming industry. It might just be for the "connected" or well-funded at first, sure. But that's how these things work.

As they go to the alternative, petroleum will alleviate as the demand decreases. Some folks might actually stick to petroleum.

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I think this needs to be mentioned, even if doesn't play much of a factor into the conversation/debate. If you take the average nationwide gas prices from 1981 and adjust them for inflation, we are, on average, paying less than fifteen years ago. In fact, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has declared that the national average this summer is $2.88. The inflation-adjusted price in 1981 was $3.10.

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Gas prices will go up regardless of what happens in Iran. The chances of them returning to sub-$2 is nil as oil is very finite even if we use up the other untapped resources. There simply isn't enough of the resources to fit the demand and extracting oil from tar sands won't yield the quantities needed. It'll just be a short term solution when we should focus on the long term solution.

I'd love to get that Aquygen fueled car, I saw it on the Science Channel I believe, looked pretty neat. I just need money right now, I just hope the full impact of Peak Oil isn't for another several years. That's the main speculation, has the U.S. hit peak oil or not? I've heard yes we have, I've heard we hit it years ago and I've heard nope, not yet. I hope that this thing is just blown out of proportion, but considering how greedy and petty humans can be, it may be entirely accurate.

How ya doing, buddy?

Yes, the US hit peak oil between 1965 & 1970. Somewhere in there. Peak Oil world-wide supposedly peaked in December of '05 at 85 Million Barrels per day.

And pardon me if I'm shifty about that Aquygen stuff. I don't feel like holding my breath over that creation.

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by Gechmir

Solar, electric, and various types of renewable sources of energy stirred up initially during the Oil Crisis our parents had to deal with. They're dormant on the surface but things are churning underneath. The mass amount of America and other nations may seem "dumb" about this, but the powers-that-be know about peak oil. Things are being created and tested, but the majority is concerned about maintaining the status quo. Just because you don't see/read about it much doesn't mean that it's dead-in-the-water.

Like I've said, I want to believe that. However, you must admit that since we aren't hearing about it, I have no basis on which to know that it is actually happening. I'm not challenging you to cite a source, but I've heard very little about alternative fuels recently, and I look in what I would have thought were the right places.

Originally Posted by Dullenplain

Of course, there are some issues that counter the Peak Oil argument, such as the presence of sources that were once economically unviable but now feasible once oil prices got higher (e.g. Alberta oil shales, Colorado tar sands). So in essence, we may have mapped nearly all potential sources, but not all potential sources have been tapped and depleted.

Yeah, I've heard of such things as oil shales, but I was under the impression that it was still economically unviable to extract them. If it costs more fuel to extract this oil than eventually will be derived from the process, then it's a waste of time. Do you have any reputable sources outside the oil industry that can clarify this matter?

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by Soluzar

Like I've said, I want to believe that. However, you must admit that since we aren't hearing about it, I have no basis on which to know that it is actually happening. I'm not challenging you to cite a source, but I've heard very little about alternative fuels recently, and I look in what I would have thought were the right places.

I direct you to the Aquygen stuff forementioned. You have hybrids trying to harness electric and gasoline. You have folks who are trying for Ethanol (worthless endeavor...). You have Hydrogen Fuel research (not viable because of Kaboom~). Got the various solar-powered cars that are chugging around on the news on TV as well as in books & articles elsewhere. Then you've got Biodiesel, which isn't effective either as it doesn't nearly have the oomph of petroleum. A few months back, I saw footage about some guy mining coal in Montana who claimed he found a way to cleanly burn coal (I was skeptical). A few years ago, a brief excitement was stirred when Texas A&M supposedly pulled off Cold Fusion. It was a misconception of sorts or some junk. My bottom line is that people *are* researching and working on this stuff.

If you haven't heard about alternative fuel sources lately, pardon my rudeness as it may sound, but you must've been under a rock. I don't think I even need to point to an article on this... It's happening but it doesn't score news. Bad news sells and the media reports on things such as gas prices spiralling out of control or scandals or war coming soon, etc.

Jam it back in, in the dark.