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USA: The Split.
The continuing constriction of resources is going to require the US to concentrate and streamline its structure into an integrated unit under a central authority. Territory not essential to the operation of this unit, and people who cannot or will not adapt to the new structure, will be effectively (although probably not officially) abandoned. The distilled US and its subjects will be "Inside", the abandoned territories and people will be "Outside". One expects that life Inside will be very different from life Outside.
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Inside: The Future US.
The new US will no-doubt be a rather bizarre Gerrymander territory-wise. Imagine a map of America with all the major metropoli, military installations, industrial sites, and mega-scale agriculture lands circled. Now connect those circled areas with narrow swaths covering the major transportation routes between them.
Over the course of the 20th Century, State and local authorities were reduced to little more than redundant branch offices of the Federal Government. As we've seen with Katrina and other disasters, when things get rough, everyone in modern America looks to the Federal Government to handle the situation, with total disregard for supposed Constitutional limits on Federal authority. So it stands to reason that, in the Long Emergency, the Federal Government will wield full functional jurisdiction over the Inside.
While operating as a cohesive whole, the Inside will be comprised of several organs.
-Fedghettos. Hundreds of millions living spread-out in suburbs, heating/cooling sand-alone, oversized houses, and driving SUVs all over the place to get to work, school, stores, family, and friends, is astonishingly inefficient. Especially when you consider how many Americans are employed in occupations that ultimately serve no useful purpose, attend school to learn to perform useless makework jobs, go to stores to buy stuff that they don't need and barely even want, etc...
Concentrating the bulk of the US population into urban centers will allow a great increase in efficiency without an intolerable loss of modern infrastructure. Putting the whole population on welfare, with Federally supported housing, cafeterias, clinics, utilities, and so-forth, is ultimately more cost-effective than maintaining the facade of the current economy.
There should be no need to have soldiers round people up at bayonet-point to drive them into the Fedghettos. As various aspects of the Long Emergency (terrorism, warfare, bank failures, fuel shortages, etc.) cause segments of the American economy and infrastructure to fail, most people will depend on emergency Federal Government assistance to get by. The Government can simply withdraw support, probably in phases, from the outlying areas. Most people will have little choice but to follow the food, utilities, medicine, and “security” into the urban centers. Almost everyone will consider this a temporary situation, and will expect to return to Suburbia when things settle down.
Within the Fedghettos, life will be probably adjust to something akin to normal for your modern American. In-fact, they’ll be getting the socialist Utopia so many LATOC posters seem to desire. FEMA-provided housing, food, and utilities. Universal health-care and year ‘round Public Schools, including adult courses. Broadband multimedia all around. Modern “bread and circuses”.
Police forces from around the country will no-doubt be repurposed to maintain order in the Fedghettos, and establish security perimeters around them. Something akin to the Iraq Green Zone. Checkpoints on the way into the Fedghetto will remind people that they cannot bring in weapons or illegal drugs. Few personal automobiles will be allowed in.
-Federal Farming. Even now, between the FDA, USDA, EPA, BLM, subsidies, and other means, the Federal Government pretty much controls operations on large-scale farms across America. Fuel rationing, along with control of the fertilizers, pesticides, and other chemicals essential to modern farming, combined with the collapse of the baking system, will complete the commercial farmer’s transformation into a Government Employee working on what used to be his own land.
Although the residents of the Fedghettos will no-doubt be encouraged to work Victory Gardens in the parks and on rooftops, it takes modern petro-intensive farming to produce the quantity of food needed to support the US population.
-Military. Even with the relative efficiency of Fedghetto living, it’ll still take a lot of resources to run them, and to fuel the FedFarms to feed everyone Inside. To secure these resources, the US will be engaged in perpetual Resource Wars. (The President and others have referred to this as a war that won’t end in our lifetimes, haven’t they?) Of course, the usual propaganda will be employed, painting the conflict as a patriotic mission against the enemies of Freedom and Democracy. But that’s what they always say.
Despite the very real possibility of getting large portions of one’s anatomy blown off, the Military will be a very attractive option for the Fedghetto youth. It will provide a rare opportunity to travel, drive vehicles, and “prove one’s worth”.
-Industry. With demand for SUVs and such greatly reduced, US industry will repurpose to provide the tools, equipment, and weapons needed for the Military, FedFarms, and Fedghettos.
As industry is utterly dependent upon the resources which will be secured by the Military, the already blurry line between Industrial Corporations and the Federal Government will become even more meaningless.
The Military will secure the resources (primarily fossil fuel supplies) to power the Fedfarms, Industry, and Fedghettos.
The Fedfarms will produce foodstuffs to support the Military personnel, the Industry laborers, and the Fedghetto population.
Industry will produce the manufactured goods needed by the Military, FedFarms, and Fedghettos.
The Fedghetto will produce the laborers for Industry and the soldiers for the Military. The Fedghetto will also provide motivation for the soldiers and laborers, as they work to make their family and friends in the Fedghetto safer and better-off.
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Outside: The Future America.
As the bulk of the population migrates Inside, the suburbs and countryside will be abandoned. The Government will make a show of having the National Guard patrol evacuated areas to make people more comfortable with leaving their homes behind, but the Guard won’t stick around long after the people have left.
The suburbs will most likely be deserted rather quickly. Most suburban homes are unlivable without reliable utility service, and few suburbanites keep enough food for more than a couple days. Even short-term power outages caused by weather drive many suburbanites into hotels and shelters. It’s unlikely that they will tough it out very long when infrastructure contracts to the urban centers and leaves them without.
Folks out in the “boonies” may hold out a little longer, as they are more accustomed to extended power failures. But, when their pantries are emptied, generator gas and heating oil is used-up, most will follow the suburbanites into the Fedghettos.
But there are some people who won’t go Inside. Some who just can’t stand the city. Some who see the Fedghettos and, perhaps on a subconscious level, are repulsed by the historical precedents. Some who just have an instinctive “bad feeling about this”. Some will be too attached to their land and homes top leave them behind. Some will be religious zealots, fugitives from justice, gangsters, race-war enthusiasts, and lunatics. And a relative handful of LATOC aware folks who are at least somewhat prepared for the collapse. (Although some LATOC folks might also belong to previously listed categories as well.)
As the infrastructure recedes and the National Guard withdraw, there will almost certainly be looting. In fact, a portion of those who stay Outside will do so just for the opportunity to plunder deserted Suburbia. This will be asshattery of the highest degree, as they will be stealing plasma screen TVs and other plastic pumpkins that will be of no use or value to them… Eventually the looters will be down to scavenging for food and will find slim pickings.
Groups of hippy-dippy types will celebrate the perceived breakdown of America’s capitalist, patriarchal, violent, individualist, Christian-conservative traditional culture. This will be their chance to create a socialist, feminist, pacifist, cooperative, New-Age society free of greedy materialism.
These will last until most of the group members realize that they’ll be entitled to a share of the resources regardless of how much they contribute to production, human nature kicks-in, and they stop making any real effort. The few members with real skills and work-ethic will quickly grow tired of carrying a bunch of lay-abouts while their own families hover on the edge of starvation and the Earth Priestess community leader yammers endless nonsense.
As the heavy-lifters and potential guardians desert these communes, hungry looters and more sinister types will victimize the remainder.
The communities that will survive Outside will be a mixed-bag.
Religious fundamentalists, white supremacists, black separatists, and Re-conquistadors may develop successful settlements. Their beliefs (no matter how asinine) tend to bind them together against their imagined enemies. These settlements will, however, suffer from a very limited ability to interact peacefully with others, costing them the benefits of trade. They may also waste resources in conflict with one-another.
Probably best-off will be old-fashioned communities that develop from loose confederations of nearly self-sufficient farms surrounding small towns which can serve as centers for trade and social interaction between the farm families and home to tradesmen whose services are occasionally needed by those families.
Some features are bound to be common to successful Outside groups. Among these will be a balance of self-reliance and willing cooperation. The localized nature of life on the Outside means that there will no longer be a mechanism to force productive folk to support moochers, as happens today with the latter voting to feed themselves at the expense of the former. Attempts to do this after the collapse won’t be tolerated by the productive members of a community, as they will have the option disassociating themselves from that group.
An essential feature of Outside communities will be access to natural resources. Much of what passes for farmland today cannot produce much without forced irrigation, massive chemical fertilizer input, herbicides, pesticides, and other things that will be reliably available only to FedFarmers on the Inside. On the Outside, farmers will need naturally productive land that can be worked effectively with pre-petrofarming methods. And an awful lot of that has been ruined and paved-over in the last century or so. Also lost, or dangerously polluted, are timberlands, game, and fish resources. Access to these resources, as well as to reliable supplies of safe water, will be essential factors determining where Outside communities have a chance of developing.
Of course, resources are not much use without the right kind of people to exploit them. The paperwork, “middle management”, and check-out register skills which employ so much of today‘s population will quickly become utterly useless. Towns will need men with the nuts & bolts know-how to cobble together essential, local infrastructure from salvaged components. Communities will need people who can produce useful things from raw and salvaged materials. Small farmers will have to learn to do without modern fertilizers and other chemicals, and eventually to do without tractors as fuel and replacement parts grow scarce. People who can’t get past the fact that their white/pink collar skills and status have become moot, who insist on hanging onto Cornucopian ideas regarding feminism an the overprotection of children, who have no talent for picking up a tool and getting things done, will be a hindrance to whatever group they are associated with.
Another common feature of successful groups will be an aptitude for self-defense. It is probable that the early looters will grow hungry and desperate sitting amid their piles of plastic pumpkins. The moochers driven out of successful communities, unable to outgrow their Cornucopian sense of entitlement, will be bitter and just as hungry. Without the artificial high-priced drug market created by today’s Law Enforcement, America’s gangs will also be deprived of their livelihood. These and other elements could coalesce into the MZBs (Mutant Zombie Bikers) we half-jokingly refer to on LATOC.
There will be no “dialing 9-1-1” on the Outside. (Not that it really works in the Cornucopian Era anyway.) There will be no spare resources to support a veritable army of full-time Police to protect Outside communities. It will be up to the ordinary members of the community to defend against bandits. Sometimes acting alone, sometimes as part of a vigilante group, perhaps later as members of a posse organized by the town marshal. The earliest “gun control” laws in America actually required able-bodied men to own and maintain proficiency with firearms for the good of the community. As the delusion of nanny-state protection evaporates, the loaded gun in your holster, as well as the one in your neighbor’s, will be a source of comfort, not dread.
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Cultural Differences Inside and Out…
Marriage.
Inside: The Cornucopian trend toward the disposable male will continue apace. With daycare centers, year-round schooling, free clinics, and housing, not only will women continue to believe they don’t “need” husbands, but they will be all the more enabled to cling to the single lifestyle after having kids.
No longer needed as providers or protectors in a welfare/police-state situation, males on the Inside will become perma-teenagers (as many already have in Cornucopia). “Cute” wussies who employ Eddie Haskell charm to get into the beds of lonely women when they aren’t busy playing xBox 720... At least until they get de-facto conscripted into the military.
Outside: Many relationships will crash and burn under the stress of the collapse. But, when things start to settle down a bit, the value of a good spouse will reestablish the concept of durable marriage.
Without Cornucopian resources and economic support, there will be a lot of plain old heavy lifting to do. Families will need to be protected from very real threats. Women with feminist delusions (“a woman needs a man like a fish needs a bicycle”) will be in for a rude awakening. As will those who’ve developed the Cornucopian preference for non-threatening, perma-teen guys. The value of old-fashioned, broad-shouldered, men who can work hard and scare off thugs will become apparent.
While it will be easier for a man to survive on his own than it would be for a woman, it will become obvious pretty quickly that there’s little point to it. Who wants to work hard all day just to sit alone in a dark house at night?
Without clubs, ‘net dating, and the facades of worth created by the illusory economy, the temptation to throw away a decent marriage in hope of “trading up” will be greatly reduced.
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Cultural Differences Inside and Out…
Family.
Inside: With ever-changing “Significant Others”, the current trend of various half-siblings, step-siblings, and step “parents” will continue. While this could provide an extended network of kin to provide one-another mutual support, it’s likely that, in most cases, the shifting and vague relationships will tend to dilute the concept of family. (Who is your paternal half-brother’s maternal half-sister to you, anyway?)
Outside: With marriage becoming a more stable institution, familial relationships will be more clearly defined. It is also probable that extended families will become the norm again, especially on farms. Instead of striking out on their own when they come of age (a largely Cornucopian concept), kids would either stay-on, bring home spouses, and gradually become the masters of the farm as their parents fade, or marry and go home to their in-laws’ family farm…
In a perfect world, each farm would have the equivalent of four working adults in residence. First it’d be Pa and Ma with Junior and Daughter. Then Daughter would get hitched and go the her husband’s family farm and Junior would bring home Daughter In-Law. Then Junior and DiL would have their own kids, making them the new Pa and Ma, promoting the originals to Grandpa and Granny. As Grandpa and Granny start to slow down, the grandkids start to gain strength, and the oldest and youngest combine to equal a pair of prime adults. (In practice, some farms would have “surplus” sons, while others would have only daughters. But it’d tend to even-out.)
There’s a reason why weddings and christenings were big events in traditional rural communities. Marriages and children were connecting strands between the families and farms. Your neighbors weren’t just people who lived nearby. They were most likely kin. With your daughter and grandkids living at the farm across the valley, you had a real interest in helping them out when you could.
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