[General Discussion] "when pigs fly..."

Who will have the most units sold?
I foresee the Wii taking this category with relative ease. Its biggest competition would be MSFT, simply because they've already got a year of sales on Nintendo. Still, $200 makes the Wii the most affordable console by far, and what a lot of people overlook is that Nintendo is likely positioning the Wii to be people's additional console, not their only one. Because people can get a 360 and a Wii for the price of a PS3, the "2 consoles are better than 1" mentality will have at least some impact.

Which will have the most third-party games?
There are a lot of ways to approach this one, and all of them hold at least some validity. The 360 stands the greatest chance of getting Western developers on board. The audience is a sure bet, the programming language is easiest to write, and the interface conventions are tried-and-true control sticks and buttons of old. No tilt/gyroscopic stuff like the PS3, and no triangulation like the Wii.

The low price of the Wii, however, makes it a safe investment for small-time developers who want to try something new or risky and get a reasonable return. It's looking like a LOT of people are going to have Wiis and that many of them are ready and willing to accept gimmicky games because the entire console is engineered for a radically different style of play. Also, big-time developers can port their existing games to the Wii with no fear of Wii-mote concerns because it supports both GC controllers and a Wii control pad.

Sony has the existing market domination, and that's attractive to those developers who want a solid ROI with blockbuster titles. Anyone going for graphical prettiness is just about guaranteed to go PS3, as it looks to be THE graphical powerhouse of this generation, even despite recent news of its GPU being scaled back.

Overall, going on current trends, I see PS3 having the most 3rd-party support. However, the Wii could easily clean up with regard to 3rd-parties due to its price point and ability to offer styles of play that nobody else can offer. There's too much ill will in Japan toward MSFT, and that's going to hurt the 360, despite it being easy to publish indie games via Live and the fact that Western developers will find a market with it.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?
Argh. Toughie here. Currently it looks like Microsoft is going to take this one pretty easily. Live is a stable, tried-and-true system that's been (smartly) kept mostly the same from the previous generation. The interaction between players, both in-game and in the form of scoreboards and guilds/teams/clans, is excellent (or so I'm told-not a MSFT gamer myself).

There is one area, however, in which Nintendo holds a ridiculously huge advantage. NinTenNet (not its real name) is free. Free, to many gamers, is huge. Especially to the budget-minded crowd who, surprise surprise, is already going to be enticed by Wii's dirt-cheap price (relatively speaking). The other advantage Nintendo has is its classic game downloads. If they play their cards right, integration between online multiplayer and VC game downloads could be the best thing that ever happened to them. Imagine playing minigames against friends while VC updates or games download. Even playing the old games themselves over the internet. Not saying it's going to happen, but if they can pull it off or even something like it, it could be huge.

The one player I cannot see even coming close is Sony. Their policy of charging premiums for everything combined with their near-nonexistent online offerings at present are just going to slaughter them.

So currently Microsoft for online play, but the big N could prove to be at least a worthy adversary.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?
Wii, no contest. Nintendo consoles have long had awesome exclusive games (Mario Party notwithstanding): look at Eternal Darkness, Tales of Symphonia (I know, PS2 in Japan), Metroid, Zelda, Goldeneye... The signal-to-noise ratio has historically been highest on Nintendo consoles, as they're generally averse to mass-market EA crap like Madden, "Tom Clancy's Yet Another Terrorist Spy Game," and EXXXXTREME FPS like Black. In general, games that teenagers buy to show that they're "moar mature rly honest im an adult i play gta sanananandrayas" have been mostly absent from Nintendo systems in favor of less "gritty" but usually more playable titles. I'm sure this betrays my disdain for superficial violent content for marketing purposes, but I'd rather play a good "kiddie" Ninty title than "RIAA Cash-Cow Rapper's 'INSERT CRIMINAL TERMINOLOGY HERE.'"

Playstation 3 will have Final Fantasy. Oh, joy. Where do I sign up?

How ya doing, buddy?