America to Disintegrate in 2010

....

According to a Russian Professor, anyway, after a ruinous civil war breaks out in mid-2009.

Source: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S. - WSJ.com

Spoiler:

For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously.

(snip)

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces.

Of course, my first reaction after reading this piece was to laugh out very loudly indeed. The face of it looks much like wishful thinking on the part of a quack Russian academic. And he was in fact treated like a quack for the better part of a decade.

But! My interactions with lurker in chat have proven to me that I know absolutely nothing about how Americans believe. Thus, while I may personally think that such an outcome is ludicrous, perhaps I might be mistaken in my belief!

So, I hereby pose this question to the people who live in America, who work in America, and who know America best. Is there, in fact, a "45-55% chance" that such a thing will happen next year?

How ya doing, buddy?