Civil War in Iraq?

Quote:

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - A bomb that killed five people in a Shi'ite militia stronghold and a machinegun attack on a top Sunni politician fueled fears of civil war in Iraq on Thursday after a week of bloodshed that has left hundreds dead.

As more signs emerged that U.S.-backed efforts to form a unity government were in disarray over the Shi'ites' choice of Ibrahim al-Jaafari to stay on as premier, a blast ripped through a Baghdad market and gunmen killed a Sunni imam in the south.

Jaafari, under pressure from Sunnis, Kurds and others threatening to remove him, held meetings to end the standoff. Some opponents want him to step aside as the price for joining a coalition Washington sees as the best hope for stability.

(...)

Sectarian attacks since bombs destroyed a Shi'ite shrine in Samarra on February 22 have stalled the formation of an inclusive government Washington is banking on as a way to end violence and allow it start bringing over 130,000 U.S. troops home.

U.S. and Iraqi leaders have urged people to avoid a bloodbath between majority Shi'ite Muslims and Sunni Arabs that could further inflame Iraq, as well as the entire Middle East.

(...)

Jaafari's government has struggled to respond to violence that has killed at least 478 people, by a conservative tally from Iraqi officials issued by the U.S. military.

He has ordered thousands of Iraqi troops and police onto the streets of Baghdad, backed by U.S. soldiers, but their effectiveness is untested and their loyalties are uncertain in the face of sectarian militias to which some once belonged.

Fearful of reprisal attacks, some Baghdad residents have thrown up barricades. Others queue up to leave altogether.

(...)

U.S. and Iraqi leaders accuse al Qaeda militants of bombing the shrine to drag Shi'ites into a civil war that would wreck U.S. plans. Some Sunnis say Iranian-backed Shi'ites did it to justify reprisals against the Sunni Arab minority.

Source: reuters.com

The situation in Iraq is escalating. Many argue that a civil war threatening the whole gulf region is already underway and the U.S. seem to have no means to confine the spreading violence.

What do you think? Was the U.S.-led campaign in Iraq a failure? Is there any chance for the newly formed democracy in Iraq to succeed? Should Jafaari step down to save the little stability left?

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Watts

Sure we can. A civil war doesn't necessarily have to between religous groups now does it? It could be the Iraqis that support occupation vs the Iraqis that don't support a Coalition Army stationing itself in the country.

But the civil war we're discussing here is between religious groups.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Quote:

Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq

The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible.

Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect.

The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.

Source: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/pub...g=zgp&proj=zme

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I found this to be a very interesting read that shouldn't go unnoticed.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.