[General Discussion] "when pigs fly..."

Ok I'll bite.

I think this will be the closest generation since SNES/Genesis.

Usually the system that comes out first does the best, but this is a special case because as was noted above the Japan factor will weigh in heavily this time around.

Although the Xbox 360 is already out, and doing fairly well in the US it's doing pretty piss poor in Japan. If last generation is any indication Japanese developers will shy away from it, and because the Wii is such a specialized system chances are you'll see most of the 3rd party games going to the PS3 by default.

I remember back in 2000 when the PS2 hit in Japan it sold like MAD. Not because of the games, but because everyone was using it as a DVD player. Although the PS3 is much more expensive I don't see why that same logic wont carry over into this generation. HD is a huge technological movement. I invision many Japanese people getting a PS3 largely in part for it being their next gen movie player.

That isn't the case in the US. Comming from someone who worked in retail for 5 years in different parts of the country, the American consumer isn't very informed on average. People caught on to DVD late and it was the only game in town. Blu-Ray now is newer than DVD then, more expensive, and more confusing with HD-DVD standing opposed. I say that to say that people here wont see the PS3 as a movie player nearly as much as those in Japan. Just an expensive-as-fuck videogame system. And until the price drops significantly the Xbox 360 should outsell it handily here.

That being said I believe the rabid Sony fanboys will be out in enough force to keep the system afloat. I think Price Point will be a major sellor for the Wii, but I see it being too much of a departure for someone teetering between the Xbox 360 and PS3. The majority of the folks turned off by the PS3's pricepoint will lean towards the Xbox360. Furthermore I don't see the Wii being someone's only next gen system. *

Around 2008 you'll see the PS3 take a sharp turn for the better. By then HD will be bigger than it is now. Blu-ray will be more significant in the consumer consiousness, system price drops will close the price differentials and Japanese developers shitting on the X360 will make the PS3 library become steadily more alluring.

Who will have the most units sold?

This Christmas it'll be:
55-65% Xbox 360
20-30% PS3
15-25% Wii

I see the Xbox 360 losing alot of steam in the two years following and the Wii picking up a bit.

by year end 2008 (total ownership)

I believe you'll see:

35-45% PS3
25-35% Xbox 360
20-30% Wii

Although I believe that the hardware sales will be pretty close I believe that the software to hardware ratio being very high for the PS3, followed by the Wii and 360

Which will have the most third-party games?

As was noted Japan is going to make the difference here. I believe software trends will greatly mirror the current situation.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?

This is the easiest question to answer. Microsoft's BY FAR! In addition to having a great system with loyal customers online networking is right up Microsoft's alley. The others have no current network to speak of and no promise of a good future. I see Nintendo making shocking headway, but neither Sony nor Nintendo have demonstrated a fraction of the dedication that Microsoft has to online gaming.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?

I think a combination of the weaker system specs, my projected hardware sales, and developers not having the eager creativity to develop for the Wii its 3rd party exclusives will lag. Furthermore the proven formula of shotgunning multiplatform releases will prevent alot of Wii exclusives.

and as was said above Japanese developers wont put out software for the 360.

I think you'll see the best exclusives on the Wii, but if I were buying a system and only allowed to play the games that were exclusive to that system I'd by a PS3 because of the quantity of high quality exclusives.

Jam it back in, in the dark.