[Rumor] MGS4 no longer exclusive?!?!

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/751/751496p1.html

http://www.noooz.com/archives/2006/1...solid_4_c.html

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/17/he...ps3-exclusive/

Being reported as a rumor in many places. It is also rumored that an announcement will possibly be coming within the week. Most rumors indicate that MGS4 will release initially for PS3 followed shortly (3-6 months) with the X360 version.

I've posted this is general for 2 reasons. One being that this affects both X360 and PS3. And two, the most interesting piece about this is that if this game (which is a MAJOR "exclusive" brand) is going multi-platform, what's next? Not to mention the fact that this is japanese-Konami that might be moving away from japanese-developed-console exclusitivity for their biggest franchise.

Generally, this is not surprising because game costs are rising. It is financially smarter to offer your product to more people.



Assuming that the X360 continues to sell at its current pace, and the PS3 achieves the same number of units that X360 pulled in one year, we would be looking at 8.7 million PS3s, and 17.4 million X360s. Konami and anyone else would be foolish NOT to release their games on 360, especially games (like MGS4) that fit the demographic of the system. And 360 will reach those numbers easily next year solely because of 2 games; Halo 3 and Halo Wars. Not that I'm a Halo supporter, but it's true and we all know it.

Needless to say, do you think MGS4 will be un-exclusified? Are there any other high-profile titles that will get the same treatment? Will it matter significantly in the console races?

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Soluzar

You can't assume that 360 will continue to sell at the current pace, because sooner or later the market will reach saturation point. Pretty quickly, I'd say... considering that they already shifted 8,000,000 units.

Sales figures don't always imply installed base, especially when the hardware has had problems. The 360 certainly has a large installed base, but probably not 8,000,000 consoles, because some of those will have been faulty units. I imagine that the PS3 will have problems achieving the same sales figures as the 360 has demonstrated, too. In short, I think that 360 will remain ahead, but not by the same margin as you imagine.

Why wouldn't they sell at a constant pace? Because of market saturation? You have to be kidding me. PS2 has what, 100 million sold worldwide? Hell, the Xbox sold 24 million (almost all in the US/Europe) and I'm sure alot of those Halo2 owners will be buying the X360 for H3 next year. 360 has only begun to sell. I'm sure it will reach about 20 million by next year, GTA, Halo3 will guarentee that.

I wouldn't think that faulty units shipped from Microsoft to customers would be counted in the sales figures would they? I suppose from Microsoft they might be, but I doubt NPD counts them.

I think the whole X360 vs PS3 vs Wii will be decided completely in Japan. X360 is going nowhere there, unless they can get some Japanese love (aka MGS4, SqEnix, etc). PS3 will do well, assuming SqEnix stays in bed and doesn't jump sack for the Wii. The Wii WILL sell MANY units in japan. Hell, I really think they'll sell tons of units everywhere. They will probably outsell both the PS3 and 360, but they won't be THE next-gen console because they won't have alot of the biggest games. The challenge for Nintendo to get those games/franchises is getting companies like SqEnix to get out of the graphics race and join their simple/fun campaign. That probably won't happen, but you never know. 1.8 million consoles sold world wide in half of November... LOL

It really does come down to Japan. If Nintendo can recapture Japan like they have with the DS, then Sony will have neither the US or Japan by next year. This leaves Japanese developers a big question. Why should they majorly support PS3?

There's nowhere I can't reach.

I'm not assuming. The console will continue to sell because of what it can do, and what's available on it. I seriously doubt there are multiple Xbox360s owned by the same person. Even if your console breaks, you can get it returned, and you sure aren't buying a new one (assuming its within the 30-90 days). Besides that, X360 has RPG with Oblivion, Sports with EA, racing with Forza/Project Gotham, and FPS with GoW, Halo, CoD etc. They have a good variety of solid titles, in HD, at a lower price. That will sell systems.

Even if you can't assume the X360 will sell at the same pace, even if the pace halves, X360 will have 13 million sell through while the PS3 would have about 8-9 million. And that's assuming PS3 sells as well as the X360 has been. To me, that seems optimistic because of a few factors. 1) Sony is going to have a tough time really delivering units. Blue diodes and Cell yields will ensure that this console will have a tough time keeping good supply. 2) The PS3 is more expensive. That alone will make it a less bought item. Especially when you think parents buying for kids. $250 Wii vs $300 X360 vs $500 PS3... It's really not hard to decide. Especially when Wii has been getting such good press, and you can't see a dang difference between the 360 and PS3. When it was PS2 for $300 and Gamecube for $200, its easier to reach the $300 mark, it's not such a stretch. But throwing down half-a-grand for a game system? That is something earlier adopters and hardcore gamerz do, not the mass public.

Your argument seems to be that system-sell through isn't the same as the installed base. That is true. But you can't say that system-sell through doesn't reflect the total of installed base. Installed base matters to software companies because that is there clientel. Either way, there is no way PS3 is going to have more consoles sold, OR more installed base than X360 will next year. It just won't happen.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by Soluzar

In short, I think that 360 will remain ahead, but not by the same margin as you imagine.

Going back to your original post then, what kind of margin are you seeing by next year then?

Quote:

you can't possibly assume that the 360 will have the same success as the PS2 did, through the whole lifespan of the console

I'm not assuming that, but it would be theoretically possible for X360 to have the same install base as the PS2 in America, keeping japan out of the equation.

Quote:

I just don't think that the installed base can continue to climb as fast as it has done in the first year since the launch.

Of course this is true, but the install base should continue to rise at a similar rate, because there shouldn't be too many re-buys/double owning at this point in the systems life-cycle.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Originally Posted by NovaX

lol, this is assuming Sony will have 8.7 million units available within the next year.

That's my point. If Sony can reach that production number, which is kind of doubtful, they will still be far behind.

I was speaking idiomatically.