Microsoft Podcast Discusses HD-DVD/Blu-Ray

HD-DVD simply does not stand a chance at this point. It simply comes down to support of each format.

First off, and I'm going to bold this because I'm sick of seeing it:
BLU-RAY IS NOT A SONY PROPRIETARY FORMAT.
Blu-Ray is an open format standard(just like CD is) which was developed and is partially owned by the following companies:

Apple Computer, Inc.
Dell Inc.
Hewlett Packard Company
Hitachi, Ltd.
LG Electronics Inc.
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.
Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
Pioneer Corporation
Royal Philips Electronics
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
Sharp Corporation
Sony Corporation
TDK Corporation
Thomson Multimedia
Twentieth Century Fox
Walt Disney Pictures
Warner Bros. Entertainment


With that said, 90% of the movie industry supports Blu-Ray where 20% (there is some overlap due to some movie companies supporting both formats) supports HD-DVD. Not only that but only a single company, Toshiba is currently manufacturing HD-DVD players and no plans from other manufacturers have been announced. So in terms of both hardware and software support, Blu-Ray is far and above HD-DVD.

The other issue is Toshiba is already showing signs of defeat. They are frantically pushing for a hybrid format. The reason for this is Toshiba realizes they simply do not have the financial resources to fight Blu-Ray. Look at the line-up of companies that support Blu-Ray. Apple, Dell and HP computers will come with Blu-Ray drives, not HD-DVD. Every major home electronics manufacturer save for Toshiba will be making Blu-Ray players, not HD-DVD players. And finally the three largest in the movie industry: Disney, Warner Brothers and Sony Pictures are founding BDA members. Even with major help from Microsoft and Intel, they simply cannot compete with the corporate lineup Blu-Ray has.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Kaleb.G

No matter how much support Blu-ray has, it will only thrive if the product sells. Now obviously a wider selection of films is in order, but that doesn't matter until they are available for sale. Also, some of HD-DVDs advantages may catch on with consumers in ways that the big companies don't expect. At the moment, HD-DVD has come out a lot stronger than Blu-ray, though this won't mean much in the long run. It's going to be at least a year before we can get a good idea of who is going to win the format war.

It's not just a matter of support, we're also talking ownership. Those companies I've listed have a lot of money tied up in Blu-Ray investments. They aren't just going to sit around and let their investment go to waste and they are even less likely to switch over to HD-DVD even if HD-DVD is clearly ahead.

We're going to be dealing with a forced switch really soon here. I know people like to think the consumer has the real power but this really isn't true. Consider each new generation of consoles. The companies pretty much abandon the old consoles and the consumer pretty much has the choice of either adopting the new generation or not buying games at all. Total boycott of their favorite pastime is very unlikely. The same will most likely happen with Blu-Ray and if you consider the enormous industry support both on the hardware and software side it is clear Blu-Ray has the ability to force this switch. HD-DVD on the other hand has to convince people that they want the product which is a huge disadvantage if you are in a race to establish your format as the new standard.

Now it is correct that HD-DVD is the better option out of the gate. But make no mistake, Blu-Ray is a superior format in nearly ever aspect. HD-DVD is pretty much at its reasonable maximum capacity. Sure they still have double sided or triple layer options, but it is doubtful they will be used much if not at all. The main reason is current HD-DVD movies are maxing out the transfer rate of HD-DVD discs. This means it is impossible for HD-DVD to use a higher VC-1 bitrate than it currently is and more space will only equal more content, not higher quality transfers. So in other words HD-DVD has pretty much reached its maximum potential.

Blu-Ray on the other had is pretty much at its current minimum potential. Dual layer 50 GB discs are just around the corner and triple layer Blu-Ray discs are actually cheaper than HD-DVD discs. Secondly Blu-Ray is currently only using MPEG-2. The big reason for this was because the movie companies were not convinced of the reliability of available tools to do MPEG-4 or VC-1 transfers. Another BIG thing to consider is Blu-Ray is using a 1.5x transfer rate standard. This means Blu-Ray has a 54mbps transfer rate compared to HD-DVDs 36mbps transfer rate. This also means Blu-Ray can offer VC-1 encoded content at a higher bitrate than HD-DVD translating to higher quality video which HD-DVD will technically never be able to match Blu-Ray picture quality.

So yeah, Blu-Ray has some catching up to do which isn't surprise since it is new technology. However the support behind the format as well as the technology benefits Blu-Ray has over HD-DVD guarantee Blu-Ray is going to become the new standard.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Originally Posted by T1249NTSCJ

Okay time to chime in once more.
Sony at the moment stands to lose a large amount if the BD camp should decide abandon MPEG2 completely for AVC or heck even VC-1. Now who stands to gain here, MSFT. Royalties I believe plays a big part in this format war so I don't necessarily see Sony jumping ship with all those backers. This can only explain as to why Sony stuck it out with MPEG2. They cash in on license fees, seeing as they are part of MPEG-LA. The absolute last thing Sony will ever do is admit defeat and do what is in the best interest of a competitor (MSFT).

I was using VC-1 just as a side by side comparison. H.264 is a superior compression format and will more than likely be used over VC-1 in Blu-Ray.

Also would you please stop equating Blu-Ray to Sony! It is driving me nuts. And also the royalties for VC-1 use and MPEG2 are paid by the movie companies. Sony does not have the power in the Blu-Ray format for force movie companies to use MPEG2 over a different compression format with Blu-Ray. It was a choice made completely by the movie companies to release the first wave of Blu-Ray movies using MPEG2 over VC-1 or h.264.

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