[General Discussion] "when pigs fly..."

I'd like to begin by stating what history has shown us thus far since the days of the NES (I can't speak for the Atari, because I either wasn't born, or can't remember). First of all, no one has maintained the lead for more than 2 generations. Second, there is always at least 1 failure. I'm not saying which system will fail, just that history shows us that one will fail, just like the Turbographyx, Jaguar, and Dreamcast. But history doesn't determine the future, so lets look at what we got.

Xbox 360: Best online platform with Xbox Live. Sony will just be playing catch up with them for years on this one. However, even though the Xbox 360 is the only next gen console out on the market, off of the top of my head, I can only think of one really good game ( DOA4) that is a system exclusive. If its on the PC, then it is not exclusive, because I have an alternate way of playing this game with out being forced to purchase an Xbox 360.

Playstation 3: Support from Japanese developers. Because Japanese people don't like the Xbox, Japanese developers don't like it either, and since Nintendo isn't a competitor in the traditional games category, the PS3 will benefit from the exclusives the Japanese developers put on the sysetm.

Wii: This one is a little hard to predict without actually demoing it, due to its new approach to gaming via its controller. What it looks like, is that the Wii will suck when it comes to traditional or multiplatform games, but will shine with games developed exclusivly for the Wii. However, this all depends on the creativity of developers, and in a market filled with sequels and rip-offs, banking on creativity is a bit risky.

So, in summary,

Who will have the most units sold?
PS3, simply because of the Japan factor. It may not be the success story of the PSOne or PS2, but the PS3 has the ability to capture all 3 of the major markets, where as the Xbox 360 has no chance in Japan. The problem with the Wii is that the technology is there, its doubtful, but the creativity may be there, but what is killing the Wii, is the Nintendo name brand. This is what killed Sega. People don't forget. People remember the N64 and Gamecube as being 3rd party failures, with the best games being made by Nintendo and being extremely childish. While the gaming community may be excited for the Wii, the mainstream, the people who made Madden and GTA a hit, I'm not convinced that they are sold on the Wii.

Which will have the most third-party games?
PS3. The problem with the Xbox 360 is that the majority of their high profile 3rd pary games have already been confirmed as having ports planned for PS3, or the game is available for the PC. Japanese developers favor the PS3, Europe doesn't develop a whole lot of games, and ususally, American games are multiplatform. So, if you add all of the multiplatform games, plus Japanese support to the PS3, the PS3 will have the most 3rd party games.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?
Xbox 360. Xbox live beats everything. This is hardly a competition.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?
Very subjective question, so lets break it down, because there is no one clear winner here.
The PS3 will have the best exlusives by Japanese developers. If you like Japanese games, get a PS3.
The Xbox 360 will have the best online and American exclusives (though they may be the same, and few and far between.) If you like multiplayer games, Xbox 360 is for you.
The Wii will have the most unique exclusive games. The Wii can do things that no other system can, therefore, its games will be unique, and this is where the appeal of the Wii lies. If you are tired of conventional gaming, get a Wii.

Jam it back in, in the dark.