[General Discussion] "when pigs fly..."

--Who will have the most units sold?--
Seems like everyone wants a Wii. With the prices of PS3 and 360, Wiis also the choice for those with less money. For those with money, its seems to be seen as a "might as well" buy. Gamefaqs polls have shown, over the past month or so, that it looks about 80% of gamers, whom visit their site, are planning on owning a Wii. 40% around original release, and 40% around the time of a price drop. A previous poll concerning pre-ordering a Wii showed only a 22% disinterest in the product. Polls by Joystiq showed similiar result, with a low scale poll and a large scale poll, 84% and 86% respectively. In GFF's "Which next-gen system" Poll, the Wii netted 84%.

Compare that to PS3's near total at 65% interest level. A massive 56% are intending to wait till around the time of a lower price, only 9% intending to pruchase it at the actual time of release. This could prove very harmful to the system's library itself, as few people would be purchasing the games. Is Sony still planning on increasing the price of PS3 games? That would just be one more notch... A previous poll concerning pre-ordering a PS3 reported a 49% general disinterest in the PS3. Joystiqs polls showed interest at 48% and 22% respectively(small scale and large scale). In GFF's "Which next-gen system" Poll, the PS3 netted a mere 37%.

Compare that to 360's total near 55% level, 23% already owning the system, 32% still planning to purchase it. If Sony isnt careful, the 360 could beat the PS3. Joystiq's poll showed 360 interest at 46% and 58%. In GFF's "Which next-gen system" Poll, the 360 netted a mere 27%.

Gamefaq's also asked gamers to choose only one system between the three, as parents may as well come holiday time (although with the price difference, i'd say "you get a wii or nothing"). The Wii won with 50%, the PS3 following with 33%, and the 360 trailing with 13%; leaving 3% generally uninterested.

While Gamefaqs is not a representative poll of the public, it is a pretty good sampling of the teenage gamers, which accounts for a significant(correction) ammount of gamers. GFF's audiance is a bit harder to pigeonhole, and certainly doesn't account for what we will see on a massive scale, but is interesting to note and comprare to the Gamefaq's data. It is important to note that the GFF poll and Joystiq pole allowed any combination of the three systems, and that the factors are the sum of each option that system is involved in. In addition, this doesn't account for Nintendo's targetting of non-gaming audiances. Who knows how much or how little that will increase their sells.

PS3 and 360 seem to vary siginificantly in interest depending on who is running the poll. However, the interest in Wii remains strong regardless, and is still siginificantly higher than the other two in any poll. Every poll I've seen so far shows the Wii in the lead, normally followed by a lagging PS3, with the 360 not far behind it. I've only seen one poll so far with the Wii _NOT_ in the lead.

--Which will have the most third-party games?--
Wii should. Any gaming company that has any level of intelligence should see the sheer economic advantage to releasing a game to such a high % of gamers via one system alone. Thats why the PS2 won in the previous gen. It'll be interesting though, because Sony has the history, but it looks like Wii will have the numbers. The Wii's 80% easily beats the interest level of both the 360's and PS3's shown interest. The interest level in the Wii from the general public should be any gaming company's wet dream. The economic advantage is huge, any gaming company that doesn't take advantage of this has no concept of a buisiness model.

I dont know the price on the PS3 dev kit pricing, but I figure, based on the history of the PS2 dev kit, that it will be fairly expensive. Toss in the fact of having to deal with that blue-ray bull... The Wii's dev kit is a fraction of the cost's of the PS2's, and probably significantly lower than the PS3's. This should aid in the smaller companies making games for the Wii. Wiki reports the Wii's dev kit at a little more than JP¥200,000 (approx. US$1,768, c.2006), the PS2's at US$20,000 at the console's launch, while those for the first PlayStation cost US$4,000–US$5,000 at launch. No ammount is listed for neither the 360, nor the original Xbox.

The option of using the original Gamecube controllers also is a big help, because the wii-remote thus becomes an option, not a nescessity. In addition, if games also allow being played by either the wii remote and the more traditional controller, this allows players to choose what _they_ are more comfortable, and would encourage purchasing the Wii version of multi-release games.

--Whose online network is going to hit huge?--
One of Xbox's main appeals has always been the online feature, which I've never cared for. Havnt heard much about PS3's. However, between the free wifi, and the ability to download older games, along with the massive number of possible users... I think Wii's will do the best.


--Which console will end up with the best exclusives?--
Really hard to say. Im thinking either PS3 or the Wii. PS3 due to its sheer power, but the Wii due to its controller possibilities... really hard to say.

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by SouthJag

This can't go without correction. No, teenage gamers are not the majority of gamers anymore. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...graphics_x.htm

Although thats not really what this thread is for... thats interesting to see. Maybe the PS3 will do a bit better than I thought. I still think its gonig to follow the PSP route.

There's nowhere I can't reach.