[General Discussion] "when pigs fly..."

"It's the economy, stupid."

The housing market is slowing. Inflation is rising. The cost of consumer goods is going up. Economic growth is slowing. We make less money now, on average, than our parents did 30 years ago (adjusted for inflation).

Stagflation ftw!!111!!

If we are starting to slide into a recession as 2006 closes and 2007 is just beginning, I see people cutting back on their huge luxury purchases. To fully utilize Xbox 360 or PS3, you need a HDTV. A decent one is at least $800, then you look at the price of the console itself and in the end you are looking at a $1200-$1400 purchase. On the other hand, the Wii will be a $250 purchase total, since a HDTV wouldn't be worth it. When people's ARM's start to rip out from their chests just like the face huggers in the Aliens movies, no one will be buying $1400 game set-ups. At least, not ones that won't be repossessed when the bank takes their house because they can't pay their mortgage because they're paying $5 for a gallon of gas and $10 for a gallon of milk.

It's not just gas that's rising. Now there are news articles every day about the rising cost of just about every consumer good. For example Kellogg just absorbed $180 million due to increased production costs (higher gas/energy prices, higher sugar prices, etc.) and is going to have to pass that on to the consumers. This is happening in most areas in consumer goods. I still don't think this will have too much of a tangible effect by the end of this year, but it will have a psychological effect.

So, I think Sony (and to a lesser extent MS) have an uphill battle with the economy, before you even begin to analyze the gaming industry itself.

Around here the ratio of Wii's that will be sold in stores compared to Xbox 360 + PS3 combined will be about 10:1. Just like the DS's sold out and were hard to find but PSP's could be found even at launch when other areas were completely out (even though our shipments were much, much lower in quantity). So, in my mind, Nintendo had better get producing and fast, or demand will far outstrip supply at least in my area.

In the end, I simply cannot see a $600 console selling nearly as many units as the PS2 did, unless there is at least a 30% price drop by the end of 2007...

And that concludes my "If the sky ain't falling it's 'cause you're not looking up" analysis.

Jam it back in, in the dark.