US Carriers amassing off coast of Iran

Originally Posted by LeHah

Does Iran have the capacity to make a nuke? Probably not. In fact, I'd be amazed if they're out of the fucking bronze age.

They aren't all the way there, as far as I know. There are a lot of required steps that it is a really bad idea to rush, but I'm fairly well convinced they are getting closer. We know that they are producing enriched Uranium right now, and that can be a significant step towards nuclear weapons capability.

That said, I'm far from convinced that Israel will take pre-emptive action. Just because they have done before doesn't guarantee that they will again. I'm sure they would like to, but their plans having been anticipated might do a lot to discourage them, not to mention the fact that Iran has taken somewhat greater precautions than Iraq or Syria in the past.

It seems at this point like Israel's only option is a nuke, and I don't believe they would exercise that option unless they are attacked first. By that of course I would include even an attack by conventional weapons, but I believe they would want to have at least the bare justification of self-defence.

After all, so far two nuclear devices have been detonated which were not part of a test, and both of those were during a war which had been officially declared. It is a pretty big precedent to set if you make it three without an official declaration, don't ya think? The international community just might have words to say about that.

I''m aware this post is at least in part a rehash of a discussion recently had with Styphon, but I like to think I've fleshed out my points enough to avoid total redundancy.

Jam it back in, in the dark.