[Rumor] MGS4 no longer exclusive?!?!

You can't assume that 360 will continue to sell at the current pace, because sooner or later the market will reach saturation point. Pretty quickly, I'd say... considering that they already shifted 8,000,000 units.

Sales figures don't always imply installed base, especially when the hardware has had problems. The 360 certainly has a large installed base, but probably not 8,000,000 consoles, because some of those will have been faulty units. I imagine that the PS3 will have problems achieving the same sales figures as the 360 has demonstrated, too. In short, I think that 360 will remain ahead, but not by the same margin as you imagine.

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Originally Posted by Dayvon

Why wouldn't they sell at a constant pace? Because of market saturation? You have to be kidding me. PS2 has what, 100 million sold worldwide?

Market saturation. It won't kill sales straight away, but it will probably reduce them significantly. Remember that the PS2 was unprecedentedly popular. It came in on the back of the PS1, which is a little different from coming in on the back of XBox.

Of those 100 million PS2 consoles that were sold, how many do you assume were replacements? I'm on my third PS2. Most PS2 gamers I know have had at least two. How many do you suppose were from people 'trading up' to the slimline?

How many of those 100 million PS2s do you suppose were bought for a single game, and then lived out the rest of their lives as little more than DVD players?

You can't just look at the raw numbers and assume they represent installled base. You're suggesting that we can assume that the number sold represents the number of willing customers for any given game. That's simply not the case.

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Originally Posted by Dayvon

I'm not assuming. The console will continue to sell because of what it can do, and what's available on it.

That may be the case. I don't personally doubt it, but you can't possibly assume that the 360 will have the same success as the PS2 did, through the whole lifespan of the console.

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I seriously doubt there are multiple Xbox360s owned by the same person.

I was refuting the notion that there are somehow 100 million PS2 consoles out there. There's probably more like 40 million or so that are still functional. In other words, installed base for the PS2 never reached 100 million, and nor will installed base for the 360.

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Your argument seems to be that system-sell through isn't the same as the installed base. That is true. But you can't say that system-sell through doesn't reflect the total of installed base. Installed base matters to software companies because that is there clientel. Either way, there is no way PS3 is going to have more consoles sold, OR more installed base than X360 will next year. It just won't happen.

Where did you get the impression that I think the PS3 will catch up to the 360? I'm just saying that I think PS3 will close the gap somewhat. I'm still predicting that the 360 will be the undisputed winner of this generation, I just don't think that the installed base can continue to climb as fast as it has done in the first year since the launch.

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Originally Posted by Dayvon

Going back to your original post then, what kind of margin are you seeing by next year then?

I expect to see the PS3 have between a 40 and 70 percent as many sales as the 360 in twelve months time. There's already a couple of important exclusives expected for PS3, and that's going to help. Not nearly enough though. There's no way PS3 can really compete with 360 on equal terms. Not because of hardware, but because of price, and online services.

I don't disagree with your assesment of the relative positions. I disagree with your raw numbers. Also, you've put your estimate of PS3 sales at around 50 percent of predicted 360 sales. I think that with the exclusives, it could be higher than that. It might not be, which is why I'm hedging my bets, but I see every chance it could be. The games that are PS3 exclusives have big fanboy followings.

I mostly disagree with your assesment of 360 sales. I think that it has been running uncontested for the last year, and now it must compete with two other new consoles for the gamer's buck. You have to admit that could eat away at sales.

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I'm not assuming that, but it would be theoretically possible for X360 to have the same install base as the PS2 in America, keeping japan out of the equation.

I still am not sure if the 360 has the same "lifestyle accessory" kind of appeal that the PS2 used to have. If you're going to base your predictions on America alone, then I can tentatively agree that it could be possible for the 360 to eventually equal the PS2, but a lot of things need to happen first.

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Of course this is true, but the install base should continue to rise at a similar rate, because there shouldn't be too many re-buys/double owning at this point in the systems life-cycle.

I concede that point, and I predict that growth in the installed base of the 360 in the second year could be as much as 80 percent of the first year figures... but only if MS make the right decisions.

They've been doing admirably well so far, in terms of almost anything you care to name, but it needs to continue. They will live or die on the continuing strength of XBL and the XBLA in the year to come. Fortunately for them, Sony aren't exactly posing a threat in that department, but the Wii seems strongly placed to compete.

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