[General Discussion] "when pigs fly..."

Who will have the most units sold?

The Playstation 3. Despite its rather elite pricing, I think a lot of analysts are over-predicting the holiday rush. Having worked in retail through two consecutive Christmas seasons, believe me when I say this -- if people want something, they'll get the money. I know people who, during the downtimes, won't spend $55 on a game to save their life. But come Christmas, $600 for a system is chump change all of a sudden. Buyers who want the system (namely, those who've been satisifed with their PS2 enough to warrant purchasing the system) will get a system, hands down.

However, there is one other factor to consider -- shortages. It's inevitable that Sony will not produce enough, simply because demand will exceedingly overwhelm supply. Take a look at last year -- the PSP and DS were the highest selling systems, even above the Xbox 360. And that was due entirely to shortages. It will be difficult to call this one.

Which will have the most third-party games?

I think this question's already been answered by Gamespot, wherein a previous article they quoted Sony has having signed on 208 developers -- more than the PS1, 2, or PSP -- and shipped out over 10,000 dev kits, also more than their previous systems. Nintendo's perpetual "we can deny it if we don't like it" makes developers shy away, and it's my opinion that smaller-budget companies won't want the hassle of developing for the Wiimote. There are two business strategies here -- save money by developing for a cheaper console, or spend the extra cash and develop for a console that (quite possibly) more people will own, and thus have a larger market who is able to buy your product.

Whose online network is going to hit huge?

It's already been established that the Xbox 360 is the current online leader, but then again it's the only one. I won't make a prediction like this because it's too easy to just say "Microsoft has it because they've had it for years." In fact, it's somewhat impossible to predict this, seeing as they're going unrivaled so far. And honestly, I don't think nostalgia kicks a la the Wii's virtual console will be enough to topple Xbox Live. We'll just have to wait and see what Sony's dark horse can do.

Which console will end up with the best exclusives?

Again, I'm placing my bets with the Playstation 3. It was true in the past (if only because the PS2 got the vast majority of exclusives, excluding first-party titles) and I think it'll be true again. The influence of Japanese culture in the U.S. is hitting new pinnacles every year, and it's very clear that Sony will retain an incredibly large number of Japanese games, whether they're RPG or otherwise. For RPG gamers like myself, there won't be any other choice than to get a PS3, honestly.

As a final note, I'd like to say that I'm amazed at how some people see the retail market. The Wii's success seems to be (from the perspectives of many analysts and gamers who know it all) entirely dependent on the fact like people want the cheapest system. However, if that were true, then why did the Gamecube fail to reach the same sales numbers that the Xbox and PS2 did? Consumers do not always purchase so predictably -- if they want something bad enough, they will sacrifice to get it, and that includes gaming systems. Consumers are people who need justification in their purchasing decisions, and if they can justify the PS3 ("My kid really wants one and I know he'd really enjoy it") and its price point, then the transaction has already been finalized.

That's especially true during the holiday season. Nobody wants and hardly anyone has the time to be sold on a particular system. They know what they want and they want it with minimal hassle. If they or whoever they're buying for want a PS3/360/Wii, then that is what they'll get.

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by avanent

While Gamefaqs is not a representative poll of the public, it is a pretty good sampling of the teenage gamers, which accounts for majority of gamers. GFF's audiance is a bit harder to pigeonhole, and certainly doesn't account for what we will see on a massive scale, but is interesting to note and comprare to the Gamefaq's data. In addition, this doesn't account for Nintendo's targetting of non-gaming audiances. Who knows how much or how little that will increase their sells.

This can't go without correction. No, teenage gamers are not the majority of gamers anymore. http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/20...graphics_x.htm

Quote:

A survey compiled by the Entertainment Software Association and released at E3, the video game industry's major trade show in Los Angeles, found that a slight majority of video game players are now over 18 years of age.

In fact, the average age of game players was 29 and the average age of buyers was 36, with men making up 59% of the playing audience.

There's nowhere I can't reach.