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To be honest, I don't know how many sex offenders repeat their offenses, even though it's just a hypothetical situation.
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I'd always heard in that past that the recidivism rate was pretty high among rapists, but a quick bit of poking around seems to mostly mirror what I found in
this document. Namely, that sex offenders actually aren't very likely to commit another sex crime.
As a counter point, it's also worth noting that rapes frequently go unreported. Recidivism among such sex offenders is probably reported as being a lot lower than it actually is. How much its being underreported, I couldn't say.
Still, there's a lingering and unfair sentiment that once you've committed a given crime, you're destined to do it again. On top of that, people have a pretty warped view of what the justice system is for. Rehabilitation is the most ideal goal, but people primarily want
revenge. They don't want that pedophile to undergo counseling and learn to control his urges so as to safely re-enter society, they want him to fucking DIE because he's obviously not a human being, just a child-molesting monster.
The more I think about it, the more I dislike the whole idea of a sex offender registry. Essentially, it's presuming guilt before it's been proven, fueled by anecdotal superstitions.
There's nowhere I can't reach.