Iranian Protests [Update]: Massacres in Tehran - Allah Akbar

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TEHRAN, Iran » Iran declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner Saturday of an election that pitted the conservative establishment against candidate with broad backing from the country's youth. Riot police attacked opposition supporters, beating them with clubs and smashing cars.

A statement from Mousavi posted on his Web site condemned what he described as the "manipulation" of election results.

Demonstrators wearing the trademark green color of Mir Hossein Mousavi chanted slogans condemning the results that gave 62.6 percent of the vote to Ahmadinejad. Protesters set fire to tires outside the Interior Ministry in the most serious unrest in Tehran in a decade.

Witnesses also said a commercial bank elsewhere in the city was set on fire.

Police attacked the demonstrators near the Interior Ministry, where the election results were announced, beating them with clubs and smashing cars. Police also moved to disperse any large gatherings of people around the city.

An Associated Press photographer saw a plainclothes security official beating a woman with his truncheon.

In another main street of Tehran some 300 young people blocked the avenue by forming a human chain chanted "Ahmadi, shame on you. Leave the government alone."

Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli, who supervised the elections and heads the nation's police forces warned people not to join any "unauthorized gatherings" as he gave detailed results for the elections.

"If there are gatherings in some places, people should not join them," he said. "Lets not give opportunities to people who aren't affiliated to any candidates."

He added that in Tehran itself, Mousavi won more votes than the incumbent.

Overall, however, Mousavi only took 33.75 percent of the vote in a contest that was widely perceived to be much closer than the official results.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters, thanked the people for their record 85 percent participation and warned opposition candidates to "avoid provocative behavior."

"I assume that enemies intend to eliminate the sweetness of the election with their hostile provocation," he said in his televised address.

He called the results a "divine assessment" and called on all the candidates to support the president.

Nationwide, the text messaging system remained down Saturday and several pro-Mousavi Web sites were blocked or difficult to access. Text messaging is frequently used by many Iranians -- especially young Mousavi supporters -- to spread election news and organize.
Iran election stolen? 'Official' results declare Ahmadinejad landslide winner - Salt Lake Tribune

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BBC shows police cracking down on protesters

Look at them run and give up the guy they're beating when some protesters rush them.

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Juan Cole explains the circumstances that point to election fraud.

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1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers.

3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran's western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received only 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

5. Ahmadinejad's numbers were fairly standard across Iran's provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

I am aware of the difficulties of catching history on the run. Some explanation may emerge for Ahmadinejad's upset that does not involve fraud. For instance, it is possible that he has gotten the credit for spreading around a lot of oil money in the form of favors to his constituencies, but somehow managed to escape the blame for the resultant high inflation.

But just as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene. And here is how I would reconstruct the crime.

As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi's spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi's camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory.

The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose.

They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts.

This clumsy cover-up then produced the incredible result of an Ahmadinejad landlside in Tabriz and Isfahan and Tehran.

The reason for which Rezaie and Karoubi had to be assigned such implausibly low totals was to make sure Ahmadinejad got over 51% of the vote and thus avoid a run-off between him and Mousavi next Friday, which would have given the Mousavi camp a chance to attempt to rally the public and forestall further tampering with the election.

This scenario accounts for all known anomalies and is consistent with what we know of the major players.
Informed Comment: Stealing the Iranian Election

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Riot police beating protesters

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Jam it back in, in the dark.

Oh well, four more years of this raving lunatic. I guess, what the supreme Leader wants, the supreme Leader gets.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Sorry to use an old and tired analogy but its like they borrowed bits and pieces from the election theft playbook of 2000 in the US. I hope no one gets killed over this.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

The 2000 election was ultimately hinged on the returns of a few counties in a single state. The anomalies alleged in Iran's case is far more sweeping. The proper analogy might have been Texas going for Kerry in a landslide, or California and New York going solidly for Bush.

Most amazing jew boots

Thing is that people outside the big cities dont have access to computers, tv and cellphones, which was the big campaign promotion focus. So they dont really know Mousavi so they are going to vote for the one they know which is the other. This isnt going to lead anywhere anyway. Three people have already died, some more will die and then the army will come and it will die down.

Looking forward to my tripp, will twitter live from the crowd.

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by Zergrinch

The anomalies alleged in Iran's case is far more sweeping.

Well that's why I said bits and pieces. Zip, you're going to Iran?

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Originally Posted by Dark Nation

Well that's why I said bits and pieces. Zip, you're going to Iran?

Yah, visiting my relatives. I got my tickets months ago though. Also found some new pictures and got information live, Tehran's tripping hard. It's major chaos and a cousins friend got a retarded beating in public.
http://web2.twitpic.com/img/12327753...4566a-full.jpg

Also more pictures here Flickr: mousavi1388's Photostream
and I heard that Twitter got blocked just this second. Buddy recorded this

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwTPsD8Q__8 <- can hear him say that they threw out tear-gas in the end.

no homo

Originally Posted by Zip

Thing is that people outside the big cities dont have access to computers, tv and cellphones, which was the big campaign promotion focus. So they dont really know Mousavi so they are going to vote for the one they know which is the other. This isnt going to lead anywhere anyway. Three people have already died, some more will die and then the army will come and it will die down.

Looking forward to my tripp, will twitter live from the crowd.

None of that explains how Rezaie had 3+ million votes four years ago and now has just above 300,000. It's undeniable that this election was stolen.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwTPsD8Q__8 <- can hear him say that they threw out tear-gas in the end.

Iranian friend of mine commented that the linked video is out of Shiraz and from some of the other crowd media it looks like they spread to Mashhad, Shiraz, and Isfahan into the night on Saturday, although they're smaller scale. Apparently they're claiming the West is inciting the riots now with outside "mercenaries".

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Protest leaders were arrested after showing up to a demonstration mentioned in a tweet report from the Mousavi campaign that was actually a conservative trap.

Protest image slideshow



There's nowhere I can't reach.

According to that link, the Ayatollah's daughter was arrested.

How intriguing. I guess power is thicker than blood.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by Bradylama

None of that explains how Rezaie had 3+ million votes four years ago and now has just above 300,000. It's undeniable that this election was stolen.

Oh i have no doubt that some dirty work as been done because the gap in votes is way too big, but I dont think he could have won, fair or not

no homo

Originally Posted by Zip

Oh i have no doubt that some dirty work as been done because the gap in votes is way too big, but I dont think he could have won, fair or not

Well about that

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Some comentators have suggested that the reason Western reporters were shocked when Ahmadinejad won was that they are based in opulent North Tehran, whereas the farmers and workers of Iran, the majority, are enthusiastic for Ahmadinejad. That is, we fell victim once again to upper middle class reporting and expectations in a working class country of the global south.

While such dynamics may have existed, this analysis is flawed in the case of Iran because it pays too much attention to class and material factors and not enough to Iranian culture wars. We have already seen, in 1997 and 2001, that Iranian women and youth swung behind an obscure former minister of culture named Mohammad Khatami and his 2nd of Khordad movement, capturing not only the presidency but also, in 2000, parliament.

Khatami received 70 percent of the vote in 1997. He then got 78% of the vote in 2001, despite a crowded field. In 2000, his reform movement captured 65% of the seats in parliament. He is a nice man, but you couldn't exactly categorize him as a union man or a special hit with farmers.

The evidence is that in the past little over a decade, Iran's voters had become especially interested in expanding personal liberties, in expanding women's rights, and in a wider field of legitimate expression for culture (not just high culture but even just things like Iranian rock music). The extreme puritanism of the hardliners grated on people.

The problem for the reformers of the late 1990s and early 2000s was that they did not actually control much, despite holding elected office. Important government policy and regulation was in the hands of the unelected, clerical side of the government. The hard line clerics just shut down reformist newspapers, struck down reformist legislation, and blocked social and economic reform. The Bush administration was determined to hang Khatami out to dry, ensuring that the reformers could never bring home any tangible success in foreign policy or foreign investment. Thus, in the 2004 parliamentary elections, literally thousands of reformers were simply struck off the ballot and not allowed to run. This application of a hard line litmus test in deciding who could run for office produced a hard line parliament, naturally enough.

But in 2000, it was clear that the hard liners only had about 20% of the electorate on their side.

By 2005, the hard liners had rolled back all the reforms and the reform camp was sullen and defeated. They did not come out in large numbers for the reformist candidate, Karoubi, who only got 17 percent of the vote. They nevertheless were able to force a run-off between hard line populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a pragmatic conservative billionaire. Ahmadinejad won.

But Ahmadinejad's 2005 victory was made possible by the widespread boycott of the vote or just disillusionment in the reformist camp, meaning that fewer youth and women bothered to come out.

So to believe that the 20% hard line support of 2001 has become 63% in 2009, we would have to posit that Iran is less urban, less literate and less interested in cultural issues today than 8 years ago. We would have to posit that the reformist camp once again boycotted the election and stayed home in droves.

No, this is not a north Tehran/ south Tehran issue. Khatami won by big margins despite being favored by north Tehran.

So observers who want to lay a guilt trip on us about falling for Mousavi's smooth upper middle class schtick are simply ignoring the last 12 years of Iranian history. It was about culture wars, not class. It is simply not true that the typical Iranian voter votes conservative and religious when he or she gets the chance. In fact, Mousavi is substantially more conservative than the typical winning politician in 2000. Given the enormous turnout of some 80 percent, and given the growth of Iran's urban sector, the spread of literacy, and the obvious yearning for ways around the puritanism of the hard liners, Mousavi should have won in the ongoing culture war.

And just because Ahmadinejad poses as a champion of the little people does not mean that his policies are actually good for workers or farmers or for working class women (they are not, and many people in that social class know that they are not).

So let that be an end to the guilt trip. The Second of Khordad Movement was a winning coalition for the better part of a decade. Its supporters are 8 years older than the last time they won, but it was a young movement. Did they all do a 180 and defect from Khatami to Ahmadinejad? Unlikely. The Iranian women who voted in droves for Khatami haven't gone anywhere, and they did not very likely much care for Ahmadinejad's stances on women's issues:

'In a BBC News interview, Mahbube Abbasqolizade, a member of the Iranian Women’s Centre NGO, said, “Mr. Ahmadinejad’s policies are that women should return to their homes and that their priority should be the family.”

* Ahmadinejad changed the name of the government organization the “Centre for Women’s Participation” to the “Centre for Women and Family Affairs”.

* Ahmadinejad proposed a new law that would reintroduce a man’s right to divorce his wife without informing her. In addition, men would no longer be required to pay alimony. In response, women’s groups have initiated the Million Signatures campaign against these measures.

* Ahmadinejad’s administration opposes the ratification of the UN protocol called CEDAW, the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women. This doctrine is essentially an international women’s Bill of Rights.

* Ahmadinejad implemented the Social Safety program, which monitors women’s clothing, requires the permission from a father or husband for a woman to attend school, and applies quotas limiting the number of women allowed to attend universities.'



Mir Hosain Mousavi was a plausible candidate for the reformists. They were electing people like him with 70 and 80 percent margins just a few years ago. We have not been had by the business families of north Tehran. We've much more likely been had by a hard line constituency of at most 20% of the country, who claim to be the only true heirs of the Iranian revolution, and who control which ballots see the light of day.

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She was in tears like many women on the streets of Iran’s battered capital. “Throw away your pen and paper and come to our aid,” she said, pointing to my notebook. “There is no freedom here.”

And she was gone, away through the milling crowds near the locked-down Interior Ministry spewing its pick-ups full of black-clad riot police. The “green wave” of Iran’s pre-election euphoria had turned black.

Down the street outside the ghostly campaign headquarters of the defeated reformist candidate, Mir Hussein Moussavi, the baton-wielding police came in whining phalanxes, two to a motorbike, scattering people, beating them.

“Disperse or we’ll do other things and then you’ll really know.” The voice, from a police megaphone, was steady in its menace. “You, over there, in a white hat, I’m talking to you.”

Anger hung in the air, a sullen pall enveloping the city, denser than its smog, bitter as smashed hope.

I say “defeated.” But everything I have seen suggests Moussavi, now rumored to be under house arrest, was cheated, the Iranian people defrauded, in what Moussavi called an act of official “wizardry.”

Within two hours of the closing of the polls, contrary to prior practice and electoral rules, the Interior Ministry, through the state news agency, announced a landslide victory for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose fantastical take on the world and world history appears to have added another fantastical episode.

Throughout the country, across regions of vast social and ethnic disparity, including Azeri areas that had indicated strong support for Moussavi (himself an Azeri), Ahmadinejad’s margin scarcely wavered, ending at an official 62.63 percent. That’s 24.5 million votes, a breathtaking 8 million more than he got four years ago.

No tally I’ve encountered of Ahmadinejad’s bedrock support among the rural and urban poor, religious conservatives and revolutionary ideologues gets within 6 million votes of that number.

Ahmadinejad won in other candidates’ hometowns, including Moussavi’s. He won in every major city except Tehran. He won very big, against the backdrop of an economic slump.

He won as the Interior Ministry was sealed, opposition Web sites were shut down, text messages were cut off, cell phones were interrupted, Internet access was impeded, dozens of opposition figures were arrested, universities were closed and a massive show of force was orchestrated to ram home the result to an incredulous public.

Overnight, a whole movement and mood were vaporized, to the point that they appeared a hallucination.

The crowds called it a “coup d’état.” They shouted “Marg Bar Dictator” — “Death to the dictator.” Eyes smoldered.

I’ve argued for engagement with Iran and I still believe in it, although, in the name of the millions defrauded, President Obama’s outreach must now await a decent interval.

I’ve also argued that, although repressive, the Islamic Republic offers significant margins of freedom by regional standards. I erred in underestimating the brutality and cynicism of a regime that understands the uses of ruthlessness.

“Here is my country,” a young woman said to me, voice breaking. “This is a coup. I could have worked in Europe but I came back for my people.” And she, too, sobbed.

“Don’t cry, be brave,” a man admonished her.

He was from the Interior Ministry. He showed his ID card. He said he’d worked there 30 years. He said he hadn’t been allowed in; nor had most other employees. He said the votes never got counted. He said numbers just got affixed to each candidate.

He said he’d demanded of the police why “victory” required such oppression. He said he’d fought in the 1980-88 Iraq war, his brother was a martyr, and now his youth seemed wasted and the nation’s sacrifice in vain.

Quoting Ferdowsi, the epic poet, he said, “If there is no Iran, let me be not.” Poets are the refuge of every wounded nation — just ask the Poles — and nowhere more so than here in this hour.

Iran exists still, of course, but today it is a dislocated place. Angry divisions have been exposed, between founding fathers of the revolution — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, and Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president — and between the regime and the people.

Khamenei, under pressure from Rafsanjani, appeared ready to let the election unfold, but he reversed course, under pressure, or perhaps even diktat, from the Revolutionary Guards and other powerful constituencies.

A harsh clampdown is underway. It’s unclear how far, and for how long, Iranians can resist.

On Vali Asr, the handsome avenue that was festive until the vote, crowds swarmed as night fell, confronting riot police and tear gas. “Moussavi, Moussavi. Give us back our votes,” they chanted.

Majir Mirpour grabbed me. A purple bruise disfigured his arm. He raised his shirt to show a red wound across his back. “They beat me like a pig,” he said, breathless. “They beat me as I tried to help a woman in tears. I don’t care about the physical pain. It’s the pain in my heart that hurts.”

He looked at me and the rage in his eyes made me want to toss away my notebook. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/op...t-edcohen.html

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I was speaking idiomatically.

I doubt that the few lies he tries to fool the women with was the point that won it for him. I still believe the reasons i gave in my other post was the thing that turned it over. People outside Tehran, Shiraz, Esfahan dont have access to the media outlet that everyone else have. They dont know who Mousavi is and when it comes to voting time, who are they going to vote for? The one that they know, the current president. The ones that do the projected numbers dont go to the farmers or small villiages, they dont go to the areas around Tabriz.
Mousavi didnt have a chance to begin with and I think they just changed the numbers to somehow show that Ahmandijan is the more powerful, their plan backfired and now it's chaos.

I dont even think that these arrests that are happening are legit, it's all smoke and mirrors. These dudes have so much power it's stupid. And to be honest, I'm actually kinda scared of going tomorow...

no homo

Ok, just ignore recent Iranian history when voters supported reformists by a wide margin and that Khatami lost his election to Ahmadinejad even though nobody in the country was supposed to "know who he was."

Right now ununiformed fighters are attacking students in Tehran University. There's suspicion that they're hezbollah fighters. Over 100 have been injured and a few have been killed. The police have literally blockaded the campus and the authorities are just letting Arabs go to town on students and protesters.

Iraninan Student (Change_for_Iran) on Twitter

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# Reza is looking very bad & they will shoot at us again if we try to leave here. #iranelectionhalf a minute ago from web

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This is election day in Tehran. Ahmadinejad is forced to climb over the top of his car to escape.

The crowd is yelling "Mousavi, Mousavi, Mousavi"

At the end, they are yelling 'doorogh gou!' LIAR!

"Ahmadi Bye Bye!"

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by Bradylama

Ok, just ignore recent Iranian history when voters supported reformists by a wide margin and that Khatami lost his election to Ahmadinejad even though nobody in the country was supposed to "know who he was."

Right now ununiformed fighters are attacking students in Tehran University. There's suspicion that they're hezbollah fighters. Over 100 have been injured and a few have been killed. The police have literally blockaded the campus and the authorities are just letting Arabs go to town on students and protesters.

Iraninan Student (Change_for_Iran) on Twitter

Khatami lost because he talked tons of shit and didnt fulfill enough promises, he did make it a bit easier on the youth (and that's only in the major cities, small towns were still strict) so I have no doubt that Ahmadinejad was put in place to make a bit more strict and also do what he did to America. And you can think whatever you want homie but I'm going to go with my own 22 years of experiance of my own country and from what I've gathered from my relatives and friends that are currently in the country.

no homo

I'm not saying that Mousavi would have won outright, but that support for Rezaee after Ahmadinejad alienated some conservatives would have forced a runoff between him and Mousavi, which would have gotten out any Mousavi supporters yet to vote, as well as put the Karroubi supporters into the Mousavi camp.

Rezaee and Karroubi votes practically disappeared, however, in four years despite an 85% turnout. This entire process was designed to prevent a runoff.

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by Bradylama

I'm not saying that Mousavi would have won outright, but that support for Rezaee after Ahmadinejad alienated some conservatives would have forced a runoff between him and Mousavi, which would have gotten out any Mousavi supporters yet to vote, as well as put the Karroubi supporters into the Mousavi camp.

Rezaee and Karroubi votes practically disappeared, however, in four years despite an 85% turnout. This entire process was designed to prevent a runoff.

You make a valid point, it's all shady and hopefully we get more details soon. Right now Im thinking if I should get a safety vest or something for my trip tomorow lol

no homo

Zip, I strongly suggest you postpone your trip to Iran, especially if you're going to Tehran. We don't really know what's happening, and things can get pretty messy real quick.

How ya doing, buddy?

I concur, as much as you have planned for this trip months in advance, extenuating circumstances such as what is going down right now do not warrant taking such risks.

Are they even allowing flights to and from Tehran as a result of this? I would assume your embassy would have been putting out alerts by now.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

There are few urban centers that aren't experiencing protests. Things may be dying down today, but Tehran is probably gonna keep going at it for a while yet.

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If CNN was a bro I would smash him. There are tens of thousands of people pouring into Revolution Square right now after the protest was declared illegal, and they wanna talk about iReporter bullshit.

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Basij have opened fire on the crowd

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People are advised to stay off the streets at night unless they want to be beaten to within an inch of their lives by the secret police.

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Confirmed: They killed about 15 ppl using machin-gun in Azadiabout 1 hour ago from web
Twitter / SadeqN: Confirmed: They killed abo ...

3 people are known to be dead in Tehran after the Basij opened fire, but in other cities like Azadi and Isfahan where the foreign media don't dare venture the violence is much worse.

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Boston Globe image collection

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I forgot to mention rumors of a General Strike for tomorrow (tonight for us Yanks).

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A lot of protesters intend on fighting the Basij tonight. Things are going to get ugly.

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Basij HQ has been molotoved, it burns.

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Channel 4's footage of the attack on Basij HQ

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DEAR LEADER IS THIS YOUR ISLAM?

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Iran Election 2009
DEAR LEADER IS THIS YOUR ISLAM?
A new picture/poster doing the rounds tonight. My headline is what the poster asks:

The poster shows Khamenei, Ahmadinejad at Sunday’s press conference (those flowers!) and, below, one of the defining pictures of the weekend, state thugs seemingly about to beat a woman after having kocked a man to the ground.

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Reminder: Karroubi himself is a Lur, so the results from Lorestan are impossible.

I was speaking idiomatically.

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Protesters have apparently told each other to wear black shirts in mourning because IRIB's broadcasts have given the demonstrators little coverage and described them as "thugs".

It it will be interesting to see if it is allowed to proceed. People are being asked on Facebook to meet at Valiasr Square at 5pm(1.30BST).

But a pro-government counter demo, organised by the Islamic Propaganda Organisation, has also been called for today at 4pm (12.30BST) in the city's Valiasr Square. It has all the ominous makings of violent street clash.

Some of the protesters' chants are aimed not at Ahmadinejad but at Khamenei, the supreme leader.

The best known chant is "Death to the dictator" (Marg bar diktator). But there is another that goes "Seiyed Ali Pinochet, Iran Chile Nemishe - Seiyed Ali (Khamenei) Pinochet" - Iran will not become Chile. Somebody left a message on Balatarin, a Farsi blog site, last night suggesting that it was time to drop Marg bar Diktator and replace it with Marg Bar Khamenei.

On whether Ahmadinejad really did win, it has been pointed out that he won big in the home towns and provinces of his opponents. This is unheard of in Iran and is one of the strongest pointers to fraud.

Karroubi in particular, even though he was not expected to win, is very popular in Iran. He was awarded only 330,000 votes and was beaten 10 to one by Ahmadinejad in his home town. That is not credible.

As for the pre-election telephone polls showing that Ahmadinejad was winning two to one, there were similar ones closer to the election showing the same voting margin in favour of Mousavi.

Meanwhile, according to the Guardian's sources, students at Tehran university are in mourning for five fellow students said to have been killed in campus clashes with the security forces on Sunday.

According to witnesses, many are in tears and are threatening to stage a sit-in at the university on Friday to prevent the regular Friday prayer session - scheduled to be addressed by the supreme leader, Khamenei.

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Foreign journalists have been banned from leaving their offices to cover protests.

The Culture Ministry said journalists could continue to work from their offices but that it was cancelling press accreditation for all foreign media.

"No journalist has permission to report or film or take pictures in the city," a Culture Ministry official told Reuters.

One of those journalist, Channel 4's Lindsey Hilsum, says yesterday was a day in journalism that she will never forget.

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Iran's post-election unrest: live | News | guardian.co.uk

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# we told everybody to get out and leave dorms. but most of the student got no where to go & no relatives in Tehran.18 minutes ago from web
# confirmed by farsi twitters: around 2000 basiji is now standing in front of dorms.20 minutes ago from web
# I can't contact to anyone over there, the cell phones are out again.29 minutes ago from web
# it looks they are going to attack dorms again! IRG's chopper just passed by Yousefabad. there is noting left to destroy over there!31 minutes ago from web

Iranian Student (Change_for_Iran) on Twitter

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Images from today and yesterday.

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# which side is BBC Persia on? saying we should just calm down & stay at home! and then what?!5 minutes ago from web
# @picenissimo dorm students, I know most of them personally.15 minutes ago from web in reply to picenissimo
# @mrscourtneyreed What left to loose?!16 minutes ago from web in reply to mrscourtneyreed
# there is no need to hide their names anymore Mobina Ehtrami, Fateme Borati, Kasra Sharafi, Kambiz Shoaee & Mohsen Imani; all killed by ansar18 minutes ago from web
# not only that they attacked us, now they are hiding the bodies of those we lost! I will kill ahmadynezhad myself!22 minutes ago from web
# footage as soon as somebody from the protest gets home! there is no mobile/wireless internet connection right now33 minutes ago from web
# people are standing in front of state TV building in valiasr in silent just holding their hands & mousavi pictures in air.41 minutes ago from web

Iranian Student (Change_for_Iran) on Twitter

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Guardian collection of images and youtubes impossible to get from reporters because of media bans

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Latest rumors coming through Iranian tweets are reports of police arresting Basij that attack protesters.

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niacINsight - @ 12:38 PM, pictoral breakdown of Iranian security involved in suppression

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@LaraABCNews New chants on the rooftops of Tehran: "I will kill, I will kill...whoever killed my brother" and "canons, tanks, and basijis will not deter us anymore," "as long as Ahmedinejad is around, this is what we do every night"

Heading out, any other rubberneckers feel free to update.

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MARG BAR DIKTATOR

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Dozens of Tehran University students were beaten and severely wounded, requiring hospitalization, following an attack by plain-clothed vigilantes and the state security forces on the university's large dormitories. The attackers used bullets, chains, daggers, batons and clubs to beat the students. Residents of the Amir Abad neighborhood, where the student dormitories are located, have called for help in their telephone calls to the public.

The Tehran University students began their protests on Sunday night, chanting "death to the dictator" and condemning the electoral coup. With the entrance of plain-clothed vigilantes and state security forces into the dormitories, an asymmetric battle broke out at the residence halls. The state security forces' first initial attempts at entering the university were halted by the students' resistance. However, with the launch of the state security forces' all-out attack on the dormitories, which included sound grenades, tear gas and shooting at all doors, the forces were able to penetrate the student dormitories.

Clashes at the Tehran University dormitories were under way as the cell phone networks were down in Tehran for the second time since the announcement of election results and students inside the university were unable to reach the outside. After cell phone networks went down for about an hour all over Tehran, state security forces entered the dormitories and gained control over the dormitories by ruthlessly firing at all doors and using tear gas. They then allowed plain-clothed vigilantes and forces affiliated with the Ansar Hezbollah militia to enter the dormitories. Ansar vigilantes are currently entering every single building and room to savagely beat the students with clubs, chains and daggers. Clashes are ongoing at the Tehran University dormitories. Meanwhile, fifteen students are in critical condition after being shot while state security forces were attempting to enter the dormitories. Among the injured students, one is in highly critical condition due to injuries to his face and neck. Also, two other students were shot in the face, one of whom is in danger of losing his eyes according to the medical students present on the scene. Other students were shot in the leg or other parts of the body, leaving deep wounds and scars. According to the students, the attacking forces were fully prepared, equipped with various kinds of hot and cold weapons, including batons, clubs, daggers, chains, sound grenades, tear gas, pepper spray and guns.

The students also report that the security forces are using a new kind of plastic bullets that leaves holes in the shot persons' bodies. Clashes are ongoing at the Tehran University dormitories. Campus security forces and university administrators have left the premises and the students are left alone. At three a.m. last night, residents in the Amir Abad neighborhood were alerting news agencies that the injured students trapped inside the dormitories are in urgent need of medical support, lacking access not only to ambulances but also to basic first aid.
Savage Attack on Student Dormitories - roozonline.com

Keep it real, zip

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Warning, new twitter feeds are most likely government members trying to spread misinformation, ignore them! Also, there is a handful of good twitter feeds, but please do not publicize their usernames, they are in enough danger as it is and they don't need more publiclity. Those in the know will c/p their entries. Major timeline overhaul, including what has unfolded in the last few hours.

This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it in every threads with some adjustments. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future.

Suppression of Dissent - The Players

Currently, there are either two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:

1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)

- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.

They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.

- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.

- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.

(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.

What will happen

Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like Tehran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).

Currently, this is what is happening.

Timeline (updated and revamped!)

note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

14th of June - While the previous day had been witness to some protests, they were for the most part peaceful. However, as time grew the protests turned more and more violent. When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave of violence was unleashed. The Iranian Riot Police was called in to support the regular police officers controlling the protests, and shortly after the Basij also took the scene, moving from a passive to active role of repression. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij. The repressive forces concentrated their assault mostly around the main Iranian universities, while the riot police were concentrating on protecting various government buildings such as the Interior Ministry. At least two people had been killed already.

- On the telecommunication front, this is when we started to hear more and more from twitters while videos were being freely updated to youtube (while youtube started to delete the more violent ones a few hours later). This is also the moment where the government realized what was happening, and ordered for the internet, phone lines and cellphones to be cut off, in order to avoid people communicating with the outside world.

late 14th, early 15th of June - This is the second wave of violent repression. At this point, violent riots had spread all over the main cities of Iran. The violence against citizens was not only the fruit of the Basij anymore, but also came from Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There were reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms. It's also around the same time that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods), which led to many speculating that lebanese Hizbullah members were now in Iran. Der Spiegel, through Voice of America, later claimed that 5000 Hizbullah fighters were passing off as Riot Police, validating the claims of many independent sources and twitter feeds.

- Universities have been the hotbed of protests, serving as a hub of anti-government demonstrations and preparations. 120 teachers from the Sharid University resigned in protest over the election results. Perfectly away of this, the Basij, Ansar and possibly Hizbullah members concentrated their attacks on University Dorms all over the country, storming them and beating students, destroying everything, especially computers.

- The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader authorized the plainclothes militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things were to get out of hands. By the end of the first two waves of protests, hundreds of people had been arrested.

midday, 15th of June - This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. Plainclothes militia opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Possibly up to 2 million protesters took the street. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over Tehran and spreading over Iran as the news circulated. Pictures of people shot, some to death, finally surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people had been killed at this by the end of the 15th of June.

- There is a major national crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.

- Eventually, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground.

- During the night, the police entered certain neighbourhood to arrest public servants and force them to appear at tomorrow's pro-Ahmadinejad manifestation, but the people went out in the street and forced them out of their neighbourhoods. The Basij have kept on storming dorms. So far the reports are conflicting, but it appears that the death toll could be as high as 40 for the protesters, with two dead on the side of the repressive militias. This is the end of the third wave.

early 16th of June - Supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, Tehran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. People are dressed in black and told to protest silently.

- The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Rumours are that they are taking position in buildings next to the parade and in bunkers to attack. Basij from all over the country are moving to Tehran and supporters are being bused from all over the country. A major showdown is expected to unfold.

- The crackdown on people using telecommunication is as strong as ever. Anyone with a laptop, camera or cellphone is attacked in the street by plainclothes militias. Tehran hotels are under lockdown to prevent the members of the foreign press not yet expulsed from reporting what is happening.

- As for the Iranian Government and different branches, there are rumours that many Army Generals have been arrested for plotting a Coup d'État, but this is still speculation at this point. The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. Moussavi and his supporters have rejected this, claiming that they want new elections. Khameini is now using the armed Basij as his own bodyguards, hundreds of them are surround him and his residence to protect from attempted assassinations. Ahmadinejad himself is in Russia right now, for a planned visit, and tries to pretend that everything is good as usual.

early 16th of June - The fourth wave of violence has started, and was expected to flare up very soon. It surprisingly was quite mild. Pro-Moussavi supporters said that there were even more people today protesting against the regime, though raw numbers are hard to get. If this is true, it means there are more than 2M protesters in the street right now. They are dressed in black and protesting silently and without violence so far. Other reports that only 250,000 were in the street, possibly scared by the Basij and propaganda.

- The Basij, surprisingly, did not attacking the march itself but rather assaulted dorms again. It looks like they are using the march as a diversion. In Tehran proper, 2000 Basij are waiting to storm the male dorm, and they are backed by IRG helicopters, which seems to send the message that the IRG has broken from their undeclared neutrality toward tacitely supporting the Regime.

- The crackdown on telecommunications is starting to suffocate all of Iran. As of now:

* Gmail and GTalk are shut down
* Yahoo is shut down
* AIM is most likely shut down
* Phone lines are down
* HTTPS and other such protocols are down
* Iranian ISPs have been shut down
* They are trying very hard to close down the Iranian connexion to twitter and giving proxies they control in order to track down people
* Cellphones and SMS are shut down

People are also receiving phone calls from the government saying "We know you were in the protests".

Night has fallen on Iran, and the Basij are roaming, attacking passerbys at random. They have also surrounded dorms and waiting to storm them once again.


The Revolution lives on.

Demands from the protesters

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.

Who is Grand Ayatollah Montazeri?

Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point on the short list of possible successors of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.

Since the beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime, and one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.

He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.

He has also come out with a statement saying that policemen who beat on protesters and follow orders will not be forgiven under Islam, and that even if the government cuts the lines of communication with the outside world, that it was too late and the truth was getting out
pastebin - Someone - post number 1462651

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Extraordinary scenes: Robert Fisk in Iran - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
The Army may be coming around on the side of the protesters. Quite a few soldiers attempted to keep the Basij away from demonstraters in Azadi Square yesterday.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

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Robert Fisk: Fear has gone in a land that has tasted freedom - Robert Fisk, Commentators - The Independent

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The fate of Iran rested last night in a grubby north Tehran highway interchange called Vanak Square where – after days of violence – supporters of the official President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at last confronted the screaming, angry Iranians who have decided that Mirhossein Mousavi should be the president of their country. Unbelievably – and I am a witness because I stood beside them – just 400 Iranian special forces police were keeping these two armies apart. There were stones and tear gas but for the first time in this epic crisis the cops promised to protect both sides.

"Please, please, keep the Basiji from us," one middle-aged lady pleaded with a special forces officer in flak jacket and helmet as the Islamic Republic's thug-like militia appeared in their camouflage trousers and purity-white shirts only a few metres away. The cop smiled at her. "With God's help," he said. Two other policemen were lifted shoulder-high. "Tashakor, tashakor," – "thank you, thank you" – the crowd roared at them.

This was phenomenal. The armed special forces of the Islamic Republic, hitherto always allies of the Basiji, were prepared for once, it seemed, to protect all Iranians, not just Ahmadinejad's henchmen. The precedent for this sudden neutrality is known to everyone – it was when the Shah's army refused to fire on the millions of demonstrators demanding his overthrow in 1979.

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FELIPE NO

Crazy. Absolutely crazy.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

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http://nikahang.blogspot.com/2009/06...post_5010.html

Jam it back in, in the dark.