[Rumor] MGS4 no longer exclusive?!?!

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/751/751496p1.html

http://www.noooz.com/archives/2006/1...solid_4_c.html

http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/17/he...ps3-exclusive/

Being reported as a rumor in many places. It is also rumored that an announcement will possibly be coming within the week. Most rumors indicate that MGS4 will release initially for PS3 followed shortly (3-6 months) with the X360 version.

I've posted this is general for 2 reasons. One being that this affects both X360 and PS3. And two, the most interesting piece about this is that if this game (which is a MAJOR "exclusive" brand) is going multi-platform, what's next? Not to mention the fact that this is japanese-Konami that might be moving away from japanese-developed-console exclusitivity for their biggest franchise.

Generally, this is not surprising because game costs are rising. It is financially smarter to offer your product to more people.



Assuming that the X360 continues to sell at its current pace, and the PS3 achieves the same number of units that X360 pulled in one year, we would be looking at 8.7 million PS3s, and 17.4 million X360s. Konami and anyone else would be foolish NOT to release their games on 360, especially games (like MGS4) that fit the demographic of the system. And 360 will reach those numbers easily next year solely because of 2 games; Halo 3 and Halo Wars. Not that I'm a Halo supporter, but it's true and we all know it.

Needless to say, do you think MGS4 will be un-exclusified? Are there any other high-profile titles that will get the same treatment? Will it matter significantly in the console races?

Jam it back in, in the dark.

If anything, I think we're looking at a possible "Resident Evil 4" sort of situation here, where MGS4 will have a period of exclusivity on PS3, and then eventually be brought out for 360.

Or perhaps a "MGS2 Substance" situation where it's re-released on PS3 and 360 with "extras."

Either way I do doubt that MGS4 will remain PS3 exclusive forever.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

It doesent help that the X360 has been out for a year for if those numbers were true and the system was released around the same time the other two then there might be something worth mentioning, and think about it, the PS3 has been out for nearly a month, how many systems do you expect to be out at the time of writing?

I would have no problem waiting until next late '07 for this game, I will give Kojima all the time he needs for this one, not to mention more systems bought since this is concidered a killer-app.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

This has been debunked: http://www.joystiq.com/2006/12/18/ko...ystation-3-us/

I wouldn't count on it coming to other platforms, at least not any time in the foreseeable future.

How ya doing, buddy?

Meh, sounds like a typical rumor. I wouldn't put much stock in it unless there's actually something reliable backing it up. It doesn't really make a big difference to me either way since I'll eventually play the game regardless of the platform it's on. Maybe it would hurt PS3 sales a bit, but I think the total lack of availablity of the console is a bigger problem than whether or not a series is going multiplatform would be. And despite the popularity of Metal Gear Solid, I don't think it would be that fatal of a blow to the PS3 for it to go to the Xbox 360, since it isn't like a majority of people would avoid buying a system entirely just because a specific game is also on another platform.

If they do port it to the Xbox 360 I hope they don't take the "lowest common denominator" route and start simplifing the game to work with both system's weaknesses, though. I don't know how they'd convert the motion sensing features that are supposedly being utilized in the game on the Xbox 360, or how they'd be able to take advantage of the rumble on the Xbox 360 controller if the original PS3 version doesn't have it (the past MGS games always seemed to use the motion sensing in pretty gameplay-critical ways).

Originally Posted by Dayvon

Not to mention the fact that this is japanese-Konami that might be moving away from japanese-developed-console exclusitivity for their biggest franchise.

I'm pretty sure they already did that when they released Metal Gear Solid 2 on the Xbox and PC (not to mention MGS1 was on the PC, and Castlevania was on the Xbox).

I was speaking idiomatically.

Rumours are merely that. Rumours. Listening to them, especially in the gaming business, is a really fucking moronic idea.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

I wouldn't say it's debunked, what exactly where they supposed to say? The chance of it happening is fairly large if you consider the cost it takes to create the game, and the amount of PS3s that will be out in a year. The only way it will stay a true exclusive is if Sony throws a ton on money at Konami, which they just might. Then again, MS has 13 billion dollars lying around every quarter and 8 million consoles already on the market.

FELIPE NO

It will come to other consoles just like the other games, which were exclusive.
GTA games were also exclusive but we all know what happened with those.

How ya doing, buddy?

Quote:

It will come to other consoles just like the other games, which were exclusive.

Still no talks of a MGS3 title on any other console.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Quote:

is that if this game (which is a MAJOR "exclusive" brand) is going multi-platform, what's next?

Laffo.
Let's see the orginals Metal Gears were on MSX and NES so I gues that isn't exclusive.
Metal Gear Solid was on PSX as well as PC and later remade on Gamecube so that's not really exclusive.
Metal Gear Solid 2 was on PS2 and later enhanced on Xbox
This leaves us with Metal Gear Solid: Ghost Babel on GBC, Metal Gear Ac!d on PSP and MGS3 on PS2 as the ONLY TIMES this franchise has ever been exclusive.

There's nowhere I can't reach.

Originally Posted by Elixir

Rumours are merely that. Rumours. Listening to them, especially in the gaming business, is a really fucking moronic idea.

But I bet NGC magazine were pretty chuffed with themselves for starting the 'rumour' that Twilight Princess would be Wii compatible.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

I vaguely remember someone spreading some weirdo rumors that Nintendo had a portable N64, with dual screens too. Fucking morons, how the hell would want two screens.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

You can't assume that 360 will continue to sell at the current pace, because sooner or later the market will reach saturation point. Pretty quickly, I'd say... considering that they already shifted 8,000,000 units.

Sales figures don't always imply installed base, especially when the hardware has had problems. The 360 certainly has a large installed base, but probably not 8,000,000 consoles, because some of those will have been faulty units. I imagine that the PS3 will have problems achieving the same sales figures as the 360 has demonstrated, too. In short, I think that 360 will remain ahead, but not by the same margin as you imagine.

Most amazing jew boots

That and I believe, at least for MS, sold and shipped mean the exact same thing.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Originally Posted by Soluzar

You can't assume that 360 will continue to sell at the current pace, because sooner or later the market will reach saturation point. Pretty quickly, I'd say... considering that they already shifted 8,000,000 units.

Sales figures don't always imply installed base, especially when the hardware has had problems. The 360 certainly has a large installed base, but probably not 8,000,000 consoles, because some of those will have been faulty units. I imagine that the PS3 will have problems achieving the same sales figures as the 360 has demonstrated, too. In short, I think that 360 will remain ahead, but not by the same margin as you imagine.

Why wouldn't they sell at a constant pace? Because of market saturation? You have to be kidding me. PS2 has what, 100 million sold worldwide? Hell, the Xbox sold 24 million (almost all in the US/Europe) and I'm sure alot of those Halo2 owners will be buying the X360 for H3 next year. 360 has only begun to sell. I'm sure it will reach about 20 million by next year, GTA, Halo3 will guarentee that.

I wouldn't think that faulty units shipped from Microsoft to customers would be counted in the sales figures would they? I suppose from Microsoft they might be, but I doubt NPD counts them.

I think the whole X360 vs PS3 vs Wii will be decided completely in Japan. X360 is going nowhere there, unless they can get some Japanese love (aka MGS4, SqEnix, etc). PS3 will do well, assuming SqEnix stays in bed and doesn't jump sack for the Wii. The Wii WILL sell MANY units in japan. Hell, I really think they'll sell tons of units everywhere. They will probably outsell both the PS3 and 360, but they won't be THE next-gen console because they won't have alot of the biggest games. The challenge for Nintendo to get those games/franchises is getting companies like SqEnix to get out of the graphics race and join their simple/fun campaign. That probably won't happen, but you never know. 1.8 million consoles sold world wide in half of November... LOL

It really does come down to Japan. If Nintendo can recapture Japan like they have with the DS, then Sony will have neither the US or Japan by next year. This leaves Japanese developers a big question. Why should they majorly support PS3?

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by Dayvon

Why wouldn't they sell at a constant pace? Because of market saturation? You have to be kidding me. PS2 has what, 100 million sold worldwide?

Market saturation. It won't kill sales straight away, but it will probably reduce them significantly. Remember that the PS2 was unprecedentedly popular. It came in on the back of the PS1, which is a little different from coming in on the back of XBox.

Of those 100 million PS2 consoles that were sold, how many do you assume were replacements? I'm on my third PS2. Most PS2 gamers I know have had at least two. How many do you suppose were from people 'trading up' to the slimline?

How many of those 100 million PS2s do you suppose were bought for a single game, and then lived out the rest of their lives as little more than DVD players?

You can't just look at the raw numbers and assume they represent installled base. You're suggesting that we can assume that the number sold represents the number of willing customers for any given game. That's simply not the case.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

I'm not assuming. The console will continue to sell because of what it can do, and what's available on it. I seriously doubt there are multiple Xbox360s owned by the same person. Even if your console breaks, you can get it returned, and you sure aren't buying a new one (assuming its within the 30-90 days). Besides that, X360 has RPG with Oblivion, Sports with EA, racing with Forza/Project Gotham, and FPS with GoW, Halo, CoD etc. They have a good variety of solid titles, in HD, at a lower price. That will sell systems.

Even if you can't assume the X360 will sell at the same pace, even if the pace halves, X360 will have 13 million sell through while the PS3 would have about 8-9 million. And that's assuming PS3 sells as well as the X360 has been. To me, that seems optimistic because of a few factors. 1) Sony is going to have a tough time really delivering units. Blue diodes and Cell yields will ensure that this console will have a tough time keeping good supply. 2) The PS3 is more expensive. That alone will make it a less bought item. Especially when you think parents buying for kids. $250 Wii vs $300 X360 vs $500 PS3... It's really not hard to decide. Especially when Wii has been getting such good press, and you can't see a dang difference between the 360 and PS3. When it was PS2 for $300 and Gamecube for $200, its easier to reach the $300 mark, it's not such a stretch. But throwing down half-a-grand for a game system? That is something earlier adopters and hardcore gamerz do, not the mass public.

Your argument seems to be that system-sell through isn't the same as the installed base. That is true. But you can't say that system-sell through doesn't reflect the total of installed base. Installed base matters to software companies because that is there clientel. Either way, there is no way PS3 is going to have more consoles sold, OR more installed base than X360 will next year. It just won't happen.

Jam it back in, in the dark.

Originally Posted by Dayvon

I'm not assuming. The console will continue to sell because of what it can do, and what's available on it.

That may be the case. I don't personally doubt it, but you can't possibly assume that the 360 will have the same success as the PS2 did, through the whole lifespan of the console.

Quote:

I seriously doubt there are multiple Xbox360s owned by the same person.

I was refuting the notion that there are somehow 100 million PS2 consoles out there. There's probably more like 40 million or so that are still functional. In other words, installed base for the PS2 never reached 100 million, and nor will installed base for the 360.

Quote:

Your argument seems to be that system-sell through isn't the same as the installed base. That is true. But you can't say that system-sell through doesn't reflect the total of installed base. Installed base matters to software companies because that is there clientel. Either way, there is no way PS3 is going to have more consoles sold, OR more installed base than X360 will next year. It just won't happen.

Where did you get the impression that I think the PS3 will catch up to the 360? I'm just saying that I think PS3 will close the gap somewhat. I'm still predicting that the 360 will be the undisputed winner of this generation, I just don't think that the installed base can continue to climb as fast as it has done in the first year since the launch.

How ya doing, buddy?

Originally Posted by Soluzar

In short, I think that 360 will remain ahead, but not by the same margin as you imagine.

Going back to your original post then, what kind of margin are you seeing by next year then?

Quote:

you can't possibly assume that the 360 will have the same success as the PS2 did, through the whole lifespan of the console

I'm not assuming that, but it would be theoretically possible for X360 to have the same install base as the PS2 in America, keeping japan out of the equation.

Quote:

I just don't think that the installed base can continue to climb as fast as it has done in the first year since the launch.

Of course this is true, but the install base should continue to rise at a similar rate, because there shouldn't be too many re-buys/double owning at this point in the systems life-cycle.

This thing is sticky, and I don't like it. I don't appreciate it.

Originally Posted by Dayvon

Going back to your original post then, what kind of margin are you seeing by next year then?

I expect to see the PS3 have between a 40 and 70 percent as many sales as the 360 in twelve months time. There's already a couple of important exclusives expected for PS3, and that's going to help. Not nearly enough though. There's no way PS3 can really compete with 360 on equal terms. Not because of hardware, but because of price, and online services.

I don't disagree with your assesment of the relative positions. I disagree with your raw numbers. Also, you've put your estimate of PS3 sales at around 50 percent of predicted 360 sales. I think that with the exclusives, it could be higher than that. It might not be, which is why I'm hedging my bets, but I see every chance it could be. The games that are PS3 exclusives have big fanboy followings.

I mostly disagree with your assesment of 360 sales. I think that it has been running uncontested for the last year, and now it must compete with two other new consoles for the gamer's buck. You have to admit that could eat away at sales.

Quote:

I'm not assuming that, but it would be theoretically possible for X360 to have the same install base as the PS2 in America, keeping japan out of the equation.

I still am not sure if the 360 has the same "lifestyle accessory" kind of appeal that the PS2 used to have. If you're going to base your predictions on America alone, then I can tentatively agree that it could be possible for the 360 to eventually equal the PS2, but a lot of things need to happen first.

Quote:

Of course this is true, but the install base should continue to rise at a similar rate, because there shouldn't be too many re-buys/double owning at this point in the systems life-cycle.

I concede that point, and I predict that growth in the installed base of the 360 in the second year could be as much as 80 percent of the first year figures... but only if MS make the right decisions.

They've been doing admirably well so far, in terms of almost anything you care to name, but it needs to continue. They will live or die on the continuing strength of XBL and the XBLA in the year to come. Fortunately for them, Sony aren't exactly posing a threat in that department, but the Wii seems strongly placed to compete.

I am a dolphin, do you want me on your body?

Getting back on topic no one has mentioned that any time that the MGS series has been ported, it's always been to a system of greater power. Granted it always was released on the "weakest" system at the time, but Kojoma strikes me as a man just full enough of himself to not want to port it to save the artistic integrity of his original product.

Furthermore, six months is a very short time. Just going off of memory I think each port took at least a year to come out.

I was speaking idiomatically.

The 360 is arguably more powerful overall than the PS3. If that's what you were getting at.

What kind of toxic man-thing is happening now?

Originally Posted by Dayvon

Assuming that the X360 continues to sell at its current pace, and the PS3 achieves the same number of units that X360 pulled in one year, we would be looking at 8.7 million PS3s, and 17.4 million X360s.

lol, this is assuming Sony will have 8.7 million units available within the next year.

FELIPE NO

Originally Posted by NovaX

lol, this is assuming Sony will have 8.7 million units available within the next year.

That's my point. If Sony can reach that production number, which is kind of doubtful, they will still be far behind.

What, you don't want my bikini-clad body?

I would imagine Sony will knock themselves out to make sure Konami keeps Metal Gear Solid exclusive, at least for the first year. At the moment, MGS4 is about the only reason to even think about owning a PS3.

Jam it back in, in the dark.