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Creative Statistics Hide US Contraction; Trillion in Debt?
Check out this interview (PDF) with economist John Williams. Hope you're up on your macro. John basically says that some "creative" tweaks made over the past few decades in the way the US reports statistics have caused many measurements to become way too optimistic and misleading. It started in the Kennedy years, with Clinton perhaps the worst offender of the bunch ("surprise"). Some quotes:
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(CPI is a measure of inflation...more on CPI gaming here) Quote:
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As "men on the streets" we're apparently supposed to be able to tell what's going on. What's your take on all of this? Are other countries doing the same thing with their statistics? What is the US to do if the deficit is really in the trillions of dollars? If the guy needs to put out a (pay) newsletter about it, I guess this isn't quite common knowledge. I can just imagine the thought of millions of dollars being invested on these faulty numbers... and, well, it's quite unfortunate. |
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Naw, if US attempted that, I'm pritty sure that A) Duke Nukem Forever would be the innital attack and B) Cananda would blow everything to high hell.
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I thought it was a well known fact the debt was trillions of dollars. Anyway, it's not like we're going to have to pay anyone back anytime soon.
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Regardless of creative statistics, we're still in deep shit as far as our debt is conened.
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What I want to know is where this guy John Williams gets his information that is so much different that what is being reported.
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I have so forgotten basic macroeconomic theory. ;_;
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I do question the backing of some of his statements (though again, I didn't read terribly thoroughly), and so long as the Chinese keep buying our federal bonds happily, the government can at least sustain spending. On the other hand, if the Chinese suddenly quit buying government bonds...well, it wouldn't be pretty. Suffice to say that I don't think you'll see the American government pressing the Chinese too hard on human rights or labour issues anytime soon, and if the dollar drops in value versus the Euro or Yen, who knows what'll happen? |
It was my understanding that our national debt was a small percent of our GDP and that it is not as big a problem with our economy as people would like to make it out to be.
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our ability to pay the debt is increasing... not decreasing. Many people don't realize this. I also thought it was well known what our debt was?
The US national debt isn't near the problem everyone tries to make it out to be. Anyone who doesn't believe me ask your economics professor and he'll surely tell you the same thing. |
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...&type=business
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Also its important to remember that nearly HALF of the national debt is goverment owing other parts of government money. It doesn't even involve the private sector. |
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It's true that deficit spending isn't necessarily harmful, sure, but I still worry about it. If foreign governments quit buying our bonds for whatever reason...default on payments, drop in the US dollar's worth, or just making the wrong world leader angry...it's going to break the economy and the government's ability to function. ._. future econ major...I'd ask my current professor about this stuff, but he's really kinda unhelpful. ;_; |
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