America to Disintegrate in 2010
 

....

According to a Russian Professor, anyway, after a ruinous civil war breaks out in mid-2009.

Source: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S. - WSJ.com



Of course, my first reaction after reading this piece was to laugh out very loudly indeed. The face of it looks much like wishful thinking on the part of a quack Russian academic. And he was in fact treated like a quack for the better part of a decade.

But! My interactions with lurker in chat have proven to me that I know absolutely nothing about how Americans believe. Thus, while I may personally think that such an outcome is ludicrous, perhaps I might be mistaken in my belief!

So, I hereby pose this question to the people who live in America, who work in America, and who know America best. Is there, in fact, a "45-55% chance" that such a thing will happen next year?

I, for one, welcome our European overlords with open arms and fresh-baked croissants.

This dude is crazy.

Like Canada wants shit to do with any part of your backwards-ass country that isn't the North-East.

It's HELTER SKELTER!

The Texas Republic, eh? Sounds rather nostalgic :3 Meh. It already feels like Little Mexico, as it stands~

Mexico has enough of its own economic problems without shouldering the woes of the American South, and the likelihood of Carolinians or Tennesseans consenting to have anything to do with the EU is laughable.

The essential function of this article is to rile up the retrograde knobsuckers that comprise the WSJ's readership. That sound you just heard was a thousand Billy-Bobs resubscribing to THE ONLY PAPER WILLING TO TELL THE TRUTH ABOUT COMMIE AMERICA-HATERS.

Sounds like someone was pissed that Obama won.

If he said 2030.....2040 or something along those lines

Then I might be able to take him seriously. If we went through 8-20 years of constant economic shit (you know, a prolonged depression) then his theory might make fucking sense. But 2010? It would require.....a complete COLLAPSE of EVERYTHING SIMULTANEOUSLY like in 'Live Free or Die Hard' (That is, you know....implausible fucking fiction with Bruce Willis saving the day), and while fragile, the system is far more robust than that.

I'm not worried. The world will end in 2012 as predicted by the Mayans (who had technology so far beyond ours it's mind boggling), so I'm okay with being an honorary Canadian for a few years. Look, I'll even start developing opinions about your crappy politics! Fuck Harper!

I know it's embarassing to admit you actually want Detroit, but it's okay. I understand completely.

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/...yH6ad/610x.jpg

The Russian clearly knows nothing about the US. If you think the Carolinas and anything generally south of the Mason-Dixon line wants anything to do with us Yanks (or even Europe), you've got to be... well, a foreigner.

I'm pretty sure the Northeast wouldn't mind getting rid of the rest of the country, though. Particularly those Bible-beating regions of the nation. I wonder if we could pair up with California, Oregon, and Washington or something. Those guys seem a little more sane than the rest of the country.

I thought the little map there was a joke, honestly. He can't be fucking serious. Texas with Mexican influence? CANADA having something to do with the midwest?!

Don't let their traditionally Democrat presidential voting record fool you, those places have a ton of backwoods rednecks too. I mean, fucking California passed prop 8, that right there should tell you what you need to know.

Not that NE america doesn't have their share of asswipes either. Middle of Pennsylvania, anyone?

The border states are essentially half-canadian. For more information, see Styphon's post.

Northern California to be specific for those rednecks. Though I think the bulk of Prop 8 was shouldered by black votes, wasn't it? Mind you I don't have any current data on hand, so that's conjecture based on what I heard or read at the time. The state is extremely diverse, but that outcome still came as somewhat of a shock until I pieced what I knew together.

Not even close. Now, percentage wise, blacks voted for Prop 8 more than hispanics, whites or asians, but numbers-wise they were barely significant. I think more hispanics rather than blacks voted for it.

YouTube Video

Are there any specific sites that still have that data on hand? I still want to take a look, in any case.

Anyone whos anyone knows that the map in the first post is actually from the Shadowrun sourcebook.

well there's some data analysis from our good friends at fivethirtyeight.com if that's your deal. It also brought up something I forgot about until now - across all ethnicities, the younger voters voted against prop 8 while the older ones voted more for it. so blame the old folks.

CNN also apparently has exit poll data. The page isn't loading for me properly though but it might work for you.

Congratulations. You have now become an honorary Canadian.

Additional Spam: We don't really need Detroit. The majority of the Red Wings players are already Canadian.

Sorry, couldn't hear you over the sound of swarming Killer Bs.

http://www.projectmessrocks.com/images/Bruins07.jpg

You'll have to speak up. I can't hear you over my team being 28-5-4.

There are no "rich" states. Almost all 50 states have budget shortfalls right now. So the foundation of his predictions are bullshit. Since states can't deficit spend like the federal government this binds the states even closer to the central federal government. (ie; bailouts) I'm also pretty sure (like more then 55% sure) that Texans/Californians/etc are a lot more loyal to the Union then Ukrainians/Georgians were to the Russian Empire/Soviet Union. It's not like a hundred years ago when everyone identified themselves with their state as opposed to considering themselves an American. All those petty little social issues that divide the states into blue/red will become non-existent quicklike if we find ourselves in a depression.

While a lot things can end a country an economic depression isn't one of them. It won't be pretty, but even if America defaults on it's huge foreign debt and destroys it's currency through hyperinflation. We'll survive 'cause we did that once already. As the old/new saying goes; "Not worth a continental/greenback". The Revolution against the rich fatcats and Jewish bankers seems more likely. Maybe another constitutional convention that tries to reform/overthrow a discredited/draconian central government. Probably not even that. Just a bit of urban/rural unrest. There's a lot that could happen besides the American Civil War II, with successor states prevailing that lack any historical or geographical cohesion emerging victorious.

America losing it's status as the sole superpower will do little to undermind the unity of the country. Far from it. The world will become a less stable place when differing centers of power compete for supremacy like in the last century. The popular American response will likely be one of increasing isolationism. Which will have a binding effect.

It's kinda hard to generate those generalizations by race. I think it'd be more significantly apparent if you looked at the statistics in terms of what proportions of the people who voted yes belonged to what religion.

Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com\


This following statistic is possibly the best one ever.

I would say that Central California has more rednecks... what with all the farms and small backwards towns and stuff. I usually think of Northern CA as the haven for oddballs and people who want to start communes in the forests, but maybe it's just the people I know :confused:.

That map doesn't make any sense at all. Maine would go to Europe? Are you KIDDING me? There's enough fucking canadians here that maine may as well be a part of that blithering shithole of a country that apparently charges 4 cents more for a pack of cigarettes that it makes it worth it to bitch out any clerk who doesnt give them enough of a "discount"

Thank you, RR. (For posting the statistical research I was too lazy to look up)

When I first read this I thought 'Oh shit! John Titor is being proven right somewhat vaguely!'

I don't really think this argument holds any substance. I can see a civil war happening but not next year.

Who are going to be the combatants in this civil war?

Marvel superheros.

I think it's safe to say that most people would rather be poor then a battlefield casualty, so I don't see a civil war breaking out due to our economic problems. The only thing I could see causing a civil war was if they ever tried to bring back the draft.

This is the greatest premise for a war ever, Ozzie! On one side, the U.S Government; on the other, a bunch of 18 to 30-something pacifists outraged at the notion of being forced into combat. What lies in the balance? Their right to not fight in a war if they don't want to!


Request thread title changed to: The Harry Turtledove Plot Leak.

How will this affect future attempts to reclaim the Americas Cup?

Well the country is long-overdue for a revolution, but as it is I don't foresee anything that could lead the US to fall apart unless we hit another depression. If we fall into a depression though, then I won't be surprised in the least if something like that happens.
But if we get absorbed into other countries I expect Canada and China will get a bigger chunk than what that guy's predicting, especially since the two countries own our ass as it is. Not like I'll care, if I think we're getting close to a civil war I'm heading to Canada. No way in hell am I putting my life on the line for this place.

The European Union almost rejected Turkey due to it not being a part of Europe, so what makes this Russian professor think that the European Union would accept the Northeast? And screw Europe, by the way, I'm from the Northeast and I would rather not be thought of as having the same mindset as one of the strange Americans this professor surveyed/stalked.