North Korea wants to be an attention whore again...
 

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...ear/index.html

Once again, North Korea is saying stuff so it can be on the news again. This time they want to test nukes out, screw what everyone else, including the US, says.

I wonder what will happen this time in terms of a response if they actually test one out. The world has pretty much shown that they won't do anything beyond a strongly worded message condemning their action, but no one seems to have the guts to just go in there and wtfpwn them (which gives the NK govt. time to continue brainwashing their people, making them believe anything the world does against them is bad, and therefore they should die for their country to repel an invasion or anything else that the world throws at them).

Of course, attacking North Korea won't be anything like Iraq (fighting in a densely crowded area surrounded by mountains, forests, and rice paddies ain't the same as rolling tanks through a large, flat desert area), and since North Korea doesn't have any natural resources of value (that I know of anyway. I bet if they had oil Dubya would've went right in), of course the US doesn't want to engage them.

So instead they put about 37,000 troops there instead to get steamrolled (and they will get wtfpwnt, I remember being told by one of my sergeants that we were just a speed bump if NK attacked when I was over there. It wasn't "official" policy, just what he thought, but I believe him, when they have like 50,000 artillery guns aimed at South Korea along the DMZ) by the NK first so that it'll piss off Americans and let them agree with anything that the US does to them afterwards. This is solely the reason why NK won't attack, and why they keep whining about the US pulling out of Korea. Cause you know, killing South Koreans won't have the same impact in the US, so they probably won't give a dang (remember Pearl Harbor? I doubt people would've cared if Japan took those islands they wanted during WW2, but once they attacked and killed US service members, boy did that rile up the nation. Plus with all the South Korean student protests against the US too, I doubt many Americans would really give a damn if the South gets pwnt).

So, what do you think will happen if NK tests out a nuke? Anything beyond threats and sanctions (not that any of them will work anyway, if the past is any indication)? Or is the action going to heat up again on the Korean Penninsula (the Korean War isn't over technically, cause no peace treaty was signed)?

Gotta disagree there. Trade with South Korea is huge. Just think about all the automobiles and electronics that they export. Kia, Hyundai, and Daewoo cars, and Samsung electronics are all big business that the US would be somewhat upset about loosing.

In addition, contrary to what you've read in the NY Times, Daily Show, or wherever you get your news, the US doesn't only go to war if there are natural resources to gain. We went to war in Korea once before as a matter of ideological difference.

I'm not saying you're wrong MetheGelfling, I know we do a lot of trade, and no doubt businesses would want the US to intervene (they've done that in the past, and some argue, in Iraq, but let's not go there), but the average joes and janes you talk to on the street probably wouldn't care as much as those business people/politicans, unless they're history/political science majors, or just like studying the situation there.

And I also know the US went to war (without formally declaring it, I think they called it a "police action", which I also believe was technically what they called Vietnam) over ideology during the first Korean War (and boy did we get whupped early on. Look up "Task Force Smith" to see what I mean), but the atmosphere back then was a lot more tense than it is today (where they were worried about a country that could send nukes our way, not to mention have poor people overthrow the government, and put brutal "poor" people in charge).

And then there was the issue of the US either actively supporting or at least giving their blessing for brutal dictators to be placed in charge of countries (the US has a lousy history of picking people to run countries, such as the Shah of Iran, Saddam Hussein, Ngo Dinh Diem, and several others I can't remember off the top of my head). Not that the majority of communist leaders were any better, but geez, pick someone who doesn't kill or jail a lot of people to stay in power.

Unless Americans get killed (and preferably service members it seems), most Americans won't raise an eyebrow at what's going on. Look at the recent conflict in Lebanon. Yes, the news stations were covering it everyday, but the general attitude I was seeing in most people was "eh, whatever".

I'm just trying to figure out what the general attitude will be. Again, I don't think too many people will care about the situation (unless the "test" happens to land in Japan or S. Korea, and it'd be interesting to see what China would say about it if they accidentally got hit). But I doubt most people will care, just passing it off as another thing N. Korea is doing to get attention and stay in the media.

North Korea obtaining nuclear weapons would not instantly make it more dangerous than it is right now. The main reason North Korea is the pain in the ass it is today is because they have Seoul within range of their artillery, and perhaps to a lesser extent, they have Japan within range of their ballistic missiles. What they can actually do to the South Korean capital if war errupt is somewhat debatable. The complete annihilation scenario which is often mentioned is improbable, if not impossible, but that doesn't mean they couldn't inflict quite a bit of damage and substantial civilian casualties. It really depends on whether or not the South Koreans and their allies can find and strike at their artillery position fast enough; before the North Koreans retreat in their mountain tunnels. This is the main reason North Korea is that dangerous.

Their army isn't the biggest threat, even with a million men. If North Korea was invaded, then they could certainly be quite deadly seeing as North Korea is mostly mountains, and because the North Koreans have been fed propaganda about how the US eats babies is about to invade for the last 50 years. But if North Korea is invading, then things aren't the same. For one, logistics would be a challenge. There are but a few roads through the DMZ through which convoys could pass. And since North Korea has absolutely no chance in hell of ever having anything close to air superiority, any convoys crossing the DMZ would likely be turned into burning wreckage by US and South Korean planes. Those roads would literally be blocked by wreckage. Logistics aside, North Korean propaganda keeps telling Koreans they have the highest standards of living on the planet. Chances are that should the North Koreans reach downtown Seoul, it wouldn't be long for a lot of their soldiers to figure out it ain't exactly true. That is assuming that their army even has enough morale to even get there without breaking apart at the first encounter with other troops.

Now, what would North Korea getting nukes accomplish? First, it depends on what their scientists and engineers have been able to piece together. If they successfully built a warhead small enough to fit on their ballistic missiles, then, and only then will North Korea be more dangerous than it was, especially for Japan. But that's more difficult than simply building a nuclear bomb of any size, even if NK has to use an implosion device to begin with (they only have access to plutonium, thus ruling out the simpler gun-type bomb). I don't think it's impossible, in fact it's likely they've geared their program toward production of "compact" nuclear weapons since its inception. But let's be realistic here, using nuclear weapons would be suicide for North Korea. They could reach either South Korea or Japan (the US is still out of range as we've seen during their last missile test), but in either case that means the end of Kim's regime.

If all they have is a bomb too large to use as warhead on their missiles, then in North Korea's hands, it's a large paperweight. Any bomber coming from North Korea and entering either South Korean or Japanese airspace will be shot down without asking questions. The worst scenario would be them selling a few bombs on the open market to the highest bidder. While they've exported a lot of SCUDs and other similar weapons in the past, they'll probably be much more reluctant to sell something they can't manufacture as easily as short-range missiles.

Long story short, North Korea wouldn't become much more dangerous offensively.

I'm not sure I follow here. I'd say that the atmosphere today is a bit more tense. Back then, they weren't worried about NK's nuclear capabilities. They were worried about the further spread of communism throughout Asia. If anything, they're a greater threat now given that they potentially have nuclear capabilities.

If NK pops one off over Japan, or SK, or anywhere that's not their own property, I doubt it will be too difficult to gather support to put a stop to their potential tyranny.

I do agree with you though that recent media has seemed to desensitize us from the effects of war. The war in Iraq is constantly in the news, and nobody seems to care one way or the other anymore. Most Americans find themselves reacting like this: "Let's see what else is on." Also, I think that Americans as a whole are a lot more tolerant of communist ideology than they were back in the late 40's and early 50's. However, if your average Joe or Jane on the street suddenly finds that they can't get parts for their constantly breaking Hyundai Tiburon, or order a sweet ass Samsung monitor or tv, they'll be upset. SK's economy is nothing to scoff at. They export 288 billion worth of goods a year, primarily to China, Japan, and the US. They also import 256bil in goods from the same folks. If the US suddenly looses nearly 30bil in business from exports because of NK, I'm fairly certain that we'd be ready to do something about it.

Come to think of it, your average joe/jane thinks NK's crazy anyway, as their only frame of reference concerning troubles there is from Team America World Police. :biggrin:

What you've got to understand about North Korea is that its particular brand of communism is almost completely unique. Making compatibility with the world "free-market" almost impossible, Kim knows this, even China has a rather competitive capitalist infrastructure which is why it has become such a huge economic player. Uniting the Korean Peninsula is also sort of a big thing, too. It's a huge portion of Korean history (Romance of the Three Kingdoms, anyone?), and Kim believes his family has a right to rule a united Korea unmitigated.

Although, it should be noted that North Korea's build-up of weapons is due to a political maneuvering strategy. Related to Agreed Framework, which Clinton-Era congress and Bush dropped the ball on. That's when North Korea decided to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The deal was South Korea would build two light water reactors for the DPRK in support of the goals for reliable energy infrastructure and we were to ship oil to North Korea. It was a deal cut in response to a suspicion that North Korea might be enriching plutonium, because at the time they were using plutonium/graphite reactors-- which you'll notice a lot of countries with fledgling nuclear programs use, because it does not require the enrichment or advanced techniques employed with newer reactor technologies.

I think North Korea at one point was much more willing to work with the U.S. and the other Western powers, but due to mismanagement and an unwilligness to resume one-on-one talks things have taken a darker turn.

Would North Korea win an extended engagement against Coalition forces? No. Would they inflict heavy casualties upon us and our allies? Yes. Are we willing to accept those casualties? That's the question that remains unanswered. Personally, I wouldn't, especially since this really is a situation that can be solved through diplomatic means.

Why do I say it can be "solved" through diplomatic means? Because, ultimately it boils down to money and resources. Kim wants a prosperous North Korea, that won't happen if he continues his father's doctrine of self-reliance. He has even been quoted, on one of his diplomatic visits to China, praising the Chinese economic advancements-- due to their adaptation of a market-economy in the 80's. Sure, it's not going to happen overnight, but I'd say a revisitation of something similar to Agreed Framework would most likely accomplish our immediate goal of disarmament along the DPRK/ROK border and provide the DPRK with a valuable resource.

Quite honestly, something similar would probably work with Iran. However, that situation is a lot more complicated than dealing with North Korea. It's pretty easy to discern what the DPRK's objectives are.

Where the hell'd Korea come into question in RoTK?

I really have doubts about that. Kim is pretty much one of the most secretive leader there is and it's fairly difficult to see what he really wants. I think that first and foremost, he wants to keep his grip on power. Seeing how he's been essentially sacrificing millions of his own people through starvation or concentration camps (easily on par with that of Nazi Germany, minus the systematic mass murder and with more forced labor), without any apparent attempt to even rebuild the agricultural capacity of his country which would be fairly essential for any kind of economic growth, I'd say he doesn't care much about a prosperous North Korea. It might be somewhere on his list of priorities, mind you, but it's fairly low compared to staying in power and preventing any outside interference, which essentially involves spending insane amounts of resources on his military.

My understanding is that Romance of the Three Kingdoms is a chinese retelling of the relationship between the three Kingdoms on the Korean Peninsula: Silla, Goguryeo and Baekje.

At that time, Koreans primarily used Hanja (chinese characters) for written record. So, considering that all of this took place several hundred years before (concluding c. 935) RoTK was written (in the 1300s), is it not probable? And, I'm unsure, but I thought I read somewhere that some of the names might be transliterations of Hanja into Chinese.

I could be entirely mistaken, as I might've taken the story completely out of context. China had also experienced a period of seperation after the fall of the Han Dynasty (c. 200?). Albeit lasting less than 80 years.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...393599,00.html

It seems China has its own issues with the North Koreans wanting some nukes too. And it really does seem like what YeOldeButchere just said is probably what the real situation there. Not many people, when given power, willingly give it up (that's not to say there have never been cases of that happening. George Washington did that, he gave up his leadership over the army after the Revolutionary war, and didn't even want to do a 2nd term as President, but people liked him so much they begged him to do it again. Of course, history shows that people who get into power often want to stay in it, especially if the government system is corrupt or weak).

Kim wouldn't have to relinquish his seat of power, though. When did I suggest in my scenario that Kim would be stepping down?

Seems North Korea claims to have tested their nuclear weapon a short time ago.

(Source)

I say we park five Trident Nuclear Missile Submarines off their coast permanently now. More than likely, this will cause Japan to go nuclear for defensive purposes. It'll throw that entire region into their own 'cold war'.

Erm, a single US missile sub (and I bet there's already at least one in the area), has more than enough in term of warheads to lay waste to everything that's worth blowing up with nuclear weapons in North Korea. Partly because there isn't much to blow up, partly because a single Ohio class SSBN carries 24 fucking Trident II missiles, each of which can carry up to 8 W88 warheads, for a grand total of roughly 90 megatons of sweet, sweet thermonuclear doom.

But true to American nature, we always overdo it. We burn their land, and burn it some more. Then we come back the next day & do it all over again. :) Besides, parking five instead of one... strength in numbers. North Korea does have a tiny little navy. Maybe a submarine or two.

Here's supposed geological proof of the test, along with another report on it. We should know more about what happened in a few hours. Some folks are saying the Pentagon's alarmed about this, but it may just be another one of NK's attention getting tactics.

http://aslwww.cr.usgs.gov/Seismic_Da.../INCN_24hr.gif

Source (for the quote)

The only logical solution now is to wipe out North Korea's military capability with a crippling first strike.

I mean, isn't that what "You can either have a nuke or a future" means?

In all likelihood, nothing much is going to happen. China's probably furious, the UN's going to go nuts over this, but that's about it. Oh, and the hawks in Japan will get more support for amending their constitution and allowing themselves to create a military (even though since 2005, it's been called a military force by the government themselves after the Defense agency became a ministry).

Well, we'll see how this goes as time goes on. No doubt some sort of mobilization is going on with our military.

No, see, that's diplomatic talk for "Please don't do that or we'll be angry". I really doubt much will happen unless North Korea suddently decides they want to start firing artillery shells at Seoul or something equally stupid. I mean, detonating a bomb like that, assuming it really did work and didn't fizzle, is stupid, but only borderline suicidal. It'll probably take more for any military operation against North Korea to take place.

Oh, I know no military operation will happen. I'm just saying, you don't say that kinda shit unless you're ready to BUST A NIGGA'S HEAD.

The one time military action would probably be justified, the US is simply too weak to undertake it effectively after being tied down elsewhere. It's relatively obvious Kim feels pretty easy going considering that the US doesn't have many options against him without the RoK government and possibly Japan being behind him.

Yes, I'll agree with NP on this. You can't talk publicly like that without being willing to back it up. Otherwise, threats lose their credibility.

We don't have to invade North Korea, just bomb it to hell - a task for which we're very capable of doing.

And when I say first strike, I mean a nuclear first strike using our Ohio missile submarine.

Reading up on another site, I found this link:

http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums...ad.php?t=82755

Although I've only viewed the first page, all I have to say is, wow. This is definitely going to be something historians, sociologists, and psychology people will want to study someday.

Propaganda at its finest. Notice the huge cubes of stone right next to the roads, ready to be dropped down to stop tanks, not to mention the electric fences by the water, and the ghetto looking buildings next to the hotel stuff the tourist guy was taking pictures of (and being told he's not supposed to take pictures of it. Luckily they never confiscated his camera).

Sure, North Korea looks great and all, but I wonder what would happen if they saw how the South Koreans and many other people around the world were living. As you can probably tell, communism sure did fix people's problems didn't they?

Double Post:
Here's another side of North Korea you normally don't get to see.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TNM5DpKyms&NR

Awww, they did not even talk about the concentration camp where they test chemical and biological weapons on prisoners, usually whole families. Or how the prisoners are sometime tied to the back of a jeep or truck and dragged around the camps until they're dead. I'm disappointed.

Seriously, Kim is as bad as Stalin or Hitler, the main difference being that the latter mainly killed jews, and the former probably wasn't as brutal as that when it comes to what took place in his gulags.

Ummm... wow.... looking at the photos made me realize they are still stuck in 1953, when the war ended.... Could you imagine the surprise of the people when things finally change there? They will all have to receive history books on the last 60 to 70 years just to catch up.

Imagine seeing cell phones, and laptops, and spaceships, and all sorts of stuff, and learning what has happened in the world in the past decades. Such as, how America is playing the world police... (Somethings never change... ;) just kidding)...

Remember how you always wish you could take someone from the past and bring them to the future to show what has happened? This could work with North Korea. In the end, I just feel upset by the fact that its still so backwards especially in Human Rights.

South Korea and Japan are about to be nuclear powers - and we should make it so.

Yes, let's stabilise East Asia by giving the dragon penis envy.

Seriously though, I have to agree with the title of this thread. North Korea is BEGGING for attention, and obviously, they are going to get it after doing this nuclear test. Although, I am disappointed... by now you would have thought the nuclear age is over.... What about Neuron bombs....? I mean Nuclear is sooooo 1945....

Neutron bombs are nuclear weapons, you know.

We don't exactly need to make it so; Japan is quite capable of becoming a nuclear weapons state by itself.

There was this hilarious "analyst" interview I saw bits and pieces of on ABC Australia. "There is now a strong danger of other countries on the Korean Peninsula responding by becoming nuclear". As if she forgot the name of South Korea or something.

Hmmm... I must have been thinking of Star Wars New Rebellion (Novel), where they used a Neuron bomb. Kills all the people by destroying their heads but leaves the buildings and infrastructure undamaged. I hear the Americans are researching a bomb such as that....

Yeah. LOL! Isn't South Korean the only other country on the pennisula. I think the analyst made a mistake one what was trying to really be said.

Or she was being a politically correct little bitch and didn't want to explictly name the Republic of Korea.

Maybe I'm just naive but I genuinely don't think North Korea is even a real threat. If they were a rogue nation led by a maniac, they wouldn't have just tested the bomb or the cruise missiles earlier this year. They would've actually tried something real. If they really wanted to re ignite the conflict with the South or bomb the US, they would've tried by now.

North Korea just wants to be taken seriously. It is small man syndrome on a national scale. For the past five years or so they've been waving their arms around, jumping up and down "hey hey over here, look what we're making! A bomb!" "Hey hey look nuclear weapons! Six nation party at my place now! I wanna see Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and the US there or I'm doing my block!"

I honestly think, that all Kim Jong-il wants. Is breakfast and maybe lunch with George Bush.
I mean look how happy he looks here.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...e_Albright.jpg 2000

Kim has a ridiculously huge melon. I mean, seriously.

And that woman has no chin. Why did we send madeline? Can't we send not-fat Americans to represent America?

Yeah, those are nuclear bombs. You're using nuclear disintegration to generate a large number of lethal particles/radiation (most notably neutrons) in order to kill people while having a minimum effect on infrastructure. The "nuclear" in "nuclear bomb" doesn't refer to the mushroom cloud and stuff exploding, it refers to the energy souce of the bomb.

As for actual neutron bombs, there have been research projects in the past for creating such a weapon in all sizes from something capable of cleansing an entire city to something small enough to be deployed as a tactical weapon. But most if not all of them have been cancelled due to technical difficulties and the fact that they'd likely be more or less useful as tactical weapons in today's wars, and because thermonuclear weapons pretty much do the jobs the larger versions would do. You rarely want to kill everyone in a city while leaving the infrastructure.

All that aside, I haven't seen any definitive confirmation yet that the explosion in North Korea was nuclear, and that the bomb did not fizzle. The actual yield has varied widely in term of estimates, and even the highest estimates make the bomb seem really small for a first attempt. Since North Korea only has relatively basic nuclear technology, it's safe to assume that their bomb used a "simple" spherical core and implosion design, which limits how low the yield can actually be made. At this point it's possible that their bomb fizzled out, or perhaps even that they've faked the whole thing with a shitload of conventional explosives. Coming from North Korea, I wouldn't be surprised.

North Korea decided to do this right as China-Japan and Korea-Japan relations may be finally taking a turn for the better - with the first official visit from Japan in 5 years.

I think the DPRK is the one to profit the most from the regional conflicts as it gives them cover and draws attention away from their own activities (ie the belligerence between China, Korea and Japan also helped in their boycott of the 6-party talks that aimed to put an end to North Korea nuclear plans).

And in July China was suddenly behind Japan in condemning its missile tests... so Kim Jong II seems intent on breaking off unity in the region by suddenly threatening nuclear weapon tests - which if they actually pull through would alarm Japan enough to want to push for stronger military strength in their own country, something that'd upset both China and Korea.

So the question remains whether the DPRK actually DID test a nuclear bomb or whether they simply planted some normal explosives to induce the quake. Seeing the suddenness of this threat, and the convenient time it has come in, I think there is a high probability that it was a fake (though they may conduct several more "tests" JUST to prove that they are not faking)....

Depending on whether you ask the South Koreans or the Russians, it's anywhere between the Diebner Atomic Bomb and Little Boy.

This is a nuclear program decades, if not centuries away from being any kind of real threat, given the resources at North Korea's disposal. If push comes to shove, the United States can play Nuclear Hardball and the North Koreans will have to back down, unless Kim Jong really is that crazy.

North Korea can't realistically retaliate in any way without being crushed by South Korea, and we can initiate hostilities whenever we want so long as the Bush Administration is in office (is Kim hoping for a Democratic Congress?). We should be flexing our muscles at this point, and all we're doing is making a lot of ifs and "We don't know what's happened." I mean, Christ, we already have a bloated American presence in South Korea, does it really need to just sit there pissing them off?

Apart from the argument that North Korea has no capabilities to deliver a nuclear weapon to the U.S.; I think the real threat to the United States come from the possibility that North Korea can put their nuclear weapons on the black market. The combination of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction in our cities would reverberate unimaginable consequences. Bin Laden has made statements claiming that it is his duty as a Muslim to acquire WMD's, and by the laws of supply and demand, nations like North Korea could easily decide to cater to this market. Thoughts on this?

A very real possibility since North Korea's government has and is liekly still invovled with international drug trafficking

That, as well as counterfeiting of US currency, among others. And they're essentially the main exporter of crappy ballistic missiles for third world countries. Whether or not they decide to start selling bombs likely depends on the rate at which they can produce them, which in turn likely depends on the rate at which they can extract plutonium and, to a lesser degree, build the explosive lenses assembly.

I wonder what their policy for returns/refunds is if their bombs fizzle?

Not to make light of the situation or anything, but this suddenly came into my mind when you said that :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z7yK6IQYrUs

That said, North Korea is now saying that US pressure will be considered an act of war, and will handle it accordingly (which sounds like they want to restart the Korean war, which will no doubt mean they're toast this time).

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...est/index.html

Who's to say they aren't using the gun method? The projected yield so far seems to indicate it.

I don't think North Korea selling bombs on the black market is particularly realistic. The reason they made the bombs in the first place was in some ill-fated effort to try and check Western aggression. If North Korea sells their bombs, they're essentially wasting tons of resources, and besides, what kind of bomb could North Korea sell that would actually be marketable?

This is only partially true. However, one must keep in mind what one of the reasons Il has for obtaining these weapons. One of the most obvious ones is merely having control of such destructive power.

Being the power-hungry madman that he is, I don't think that he will just go ahead and sell "membership" to the nuclear club, especially to such unpredictable groups as terrorists. What assurance could he have that the nuclear weaponry he sold will be used for the purpose that the terrorists tell him it will be used for? Little to none. Would it be possible that they may, at some point in time turn them against him? Yes.
It seems pretty basic that if you don't share the ideological and religious goals that these groups do, you can't really trust that they won't turn on you.
I guarantee you, Kim Jong Il would not be very happy if terrorism started appearing in his country.

In addition, because he is the new guy on the block, all other nations in the world will be watching him very closely to make sure that he doesn't misstep with the capabilities that he has. Should there suddenly be a terrorist nuclear attack, guess who is going to get the blame for supply such a radical and unpredictable group with the bomb? North Korea. And this in itself could give a compelling reason for nations in the region to mobilize their militaries against him.
This would seem to be extremely contrary to his apparent goals of being considered and treated as a top world power, and I think (and hope) that he thinks this too.

A closed state like North Korea has little to fear from external terrorism. What he would have to fear is that his partners would have a hard time keeping the deal on the low.

I seriously feel that N. Korea is going to try something. Just to test how rough the waters are. If the sanctions go through, N. Korea will have no choice but to do something. They have a hard enough time already trying to maintain the country. I don't think they are going to back down now and say "sorry".

Something might be going down in the next couple weeks. At the same time, I feel N. Korea is not going to survive much longer. I think its about time this stand off between North and South ends.

That's a possibility, which I have to say I had not considered. I do have doubts, however, on whether or not such a things is possible, and if so, whether or not the resulting weapon would be any more useful, read powerful, than a bundle of WW2 potato mashers held together with duct tape.

Ok, so first, you cannot hope to make a gun-type device with plutonium that will be able to qualify as a real nuke. Without going into too much details, this is because when Pu-239 is created in nuclear reactors, you also create a whole lot of other stuff in smaller quantities. One of these is another isotope of plutonium, which I can never seem to remember, either Pu-235 or Pu-240 (most likely the latter, the former seems awfully low in neutrons for its size). Anyhow, this isotope decays somewhat rapidly, emitting lots of neutrons, which happen to be what is used to fissionate nuclear fuels.

A gun-type device creates a super-critical mass just like an implosion device, but it does so under much less pressure. This means that the masses of fissile material will have a much easier time to separate before a substantial quantity of the mass is transformed into energy. With plutonium, the contaminant that creates neutrons insures that your mass will become slightly super-critical before the masses really touch. By the time the mass of fissile material has a criticality constant which is relatively high above 1, there's been enough energy created to repel the mass but not to create a substantial explosion.

The question is, just how much energy can you get out of such an awful and useless design. Frankly, I don't know. I could probably make some really rough estimations, but I'd rather study for my midterm tomorrow than make calculations all evening. But a "normal" design might not even have the energy that test had. Packing a shitload of explosives in order to give more energy to your plutonium "bullet" won't allow you to scale up your bomb much as you're more likely to destroy you bullet than anything else. If you were to build a really large device and used timed charges along the "barrel" to accelerate your projectile further, you might be able to get something slightly better, but certainly not worth the additional complexity.

But this is North Korea we're talking about, so they might have designed a normal gun-type bomb with plutonium, knowing it'll fizzle. I'm not sure why, though. If it's the case, when other countries figure out, and they will, they won't care about Kim anymore, and Kim will likely have lost foreign aid, with various sanctions added. Since kim doesn't seem like a class A imbecile, I'd say he knows that, and that makes it unlikely.

Some are more worried than others because, historically, North Korea has not developed a weapons system that it has not made available on the world market.

Who knows what will happen. American intelligence is unable to locate all bunkers and military installations in North Korea. Kim Jong-Il is, nonetheless, very paranoid about the capabilities of the CIA. It is reported that he went into hiding during the military buildup in 2003 before the Iraq invasion for fear that the U.S. Military might make a parallel strike on North Korea.

Then wouldn't having a nuke help him sleep at night? Nuclear weapons aren't like shitty submarines, especially not these party poppers that the North Koreans supposedly have.

Looks like the South Koreans are also gearing up for war now, if the US isn't showing its teeth, the South certainly is.

Taken off CNN International.

Certainly isn't a great scenario, I really think Il just overplayed his hand. Also, nobody seems to be discussing probably the most likely turn of events, a Chinese orchestrated coup against him. Remember, the thing that angers the Chinese has never been the DPRK, its been the US sitting all over its doorstep able to act with relative impunity and keep a hold on Taiwan. I think the Chinese would rather get someone else there than risk enduring much more crazy behavior from Kim. Then again, we'll see.

I seriously doubt the Chinese will help in toppling Kim Jong-Il's regime. They're already backing off and saying "punishment is not the answer!".

Why would China help anybody in taking down North Korea? They're N.Korea's closest ally, for fuck's sake. There's too much Chinese investment in N. Korea to risk helping it crumble. Nevermind the dummy nation's serving as a bulwark against S.Korea's democracy as well as constantly hogging Japan's search light.

Kim Jong-il won't use his nukes on anybody. It's all very simple when you break it down. Kim doesn't want to lose power. If he attacks anybody, he dies. If he sells a nuke and someone finds out, he dies.

Problem is, an arms race in Asia might be in the works. That would be seriously uncool.

These are all good points as to why China would want North Korea to continue to exist. At the same time, however, keeping North Korea around doesn't require keeping Kim Jong Il around, as well. If he continues to cause problems, China could very well decide that Kim had outlived his usefulness and replace him and his government with one of their choosing.

Such a new government would, of course, listen very closely to what Beijing has to say to them.

But how would they pull that off?
Assassination's no good because the guy is always moving around and hiding.
Military invasion is no good because aggressive military actions are no longer "allowed" in our world unless they're for some intangible benefit such as "spreading democracy", which China would have no intention of doing.
Inciting a revolution has too much backfire potential, what with S.Korea as the typical smiles'n'sunshine neighbour everyone wants to be like.

I suppose we could release a genetics-specific virus that's engineered to target people who really, really, really like movies and are also assholes. Sean Penn's demise would be an unfortunate consequence.

I think it pretty much a matter of waiting for N. Korea to make the bold move in order for the rest of the world to justify invasion or counter strike of some sort.

Heh. It's China, buddy. They can be as belligerent as they want in regards to North Korea and still maintain good relations with their most important trade partner.

The Chinese could affect a coup by hand-picking a general and making him an offer he can't refuse. The general starts an insurrection, and the Chinese deploy a "peacekeeping" force. Things are done, people are shot, and the DPRK is headed by a new, China-friendly dictator.

Alternatively, if we started playing Nuclear Hardball, China could offer Kim and out, say, Exile, and in return Kim dissolves the DPRK and the Chinese force the remnants to accept a reunification deal favoring the South. We'd have to negotiate with China to accomplish this feat, of course. Which would probably require the end of an American presence on the Korean peninsula indefinately.

The "Democratizing" effect of South Korea wouldn't be any more significant than the Chinese access to media, as censored as it is. The appeal of Democratic nations is that they offer the potential for financial wealth, yet the Party has precariously balanced free market initiatives while maintaining a totalitarian Police State. The Chinese would sooner not rock the boat and have their own car instead of a bullet in the face.

The Party only really has to worry about the rural poor, who have had a nasty history of dissent, and most of them live far enough away from South Korea for any cultural influence.

The biggest thing for the Chinese is that North Korea acts as a buffer against American aggression. Complete removal of US forces from the peninsula is a monkey off the Party's back. So long as we remove the nuclear tripwire from China's "elbow room" they should be fairly compliant with a reunified Korea.

China's the reason hes still alive. It wouldn't be too hard for the Chinese to assasinate him, or use the course of action Brady gave out. There wouldn't be much issue with a Democratic Korea that doesn't have a US presence. Nobody in their right mind would want China start democratic reforms that quickly, so theres not much fear of that for them.

Interesting to see the Ambassador for North Korea walk out after the Security Council voted 15-0 in favour of sanction against them.

I wonder if they will declare actual war with the United States and possibly the world now.

Actually, and technically speaking, I believe they are still at war with the US and the ROK, as the only thing signed back in the fifties was a cease fire, not a peace treaty.

Out of the restrictions set on the DPRK by the recently passed UN resolution, it wouldn't surprise me if the ban on the import of luxury good will be the most damaging. I mean, I suppose that Kim has enough cognac and mercedes for a decade, but then again I believe he is one of the largest customer for some of the largest distillers of high end liquor in the world, so he might go through his reserve in no time.

The problem comes with maintaining the lifestyle of high-ranking party officials and generals. These guys are actually incredibly rich when compared to the average korean, obviously, but some of them are fairly rich when compared to individuals from the west, and certainly lead a lifestyle that would make a number of millionaires blush. The chances of North Korea having, or developing, an industry producing luxury goods to support this elite is, how shall we say, slim, if we consider that they can't even feed their own people, so without the import of luxury goods from the outside, those guys might get fairly unhappy with Kim. And Kim might be the Dear Leader, but he still needs the support of the military, at the very least.

Of course it all depends on how strongly the resolution is enforced. But if it's enforced well enough, I can see this bringing down or at least weakening the North Korean regime much more easily, and with less civilian deaths, than pretty much anything else.

Liquor distillers can just keep selling to rappers.

or pilots

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc....ap/index.html

Not that this is anything terribly new, but North Korea's getting less food aid to feed their people now from the UN and other countries, so this means some people are going to suffer a lot more than usual there.

Not that I have anything against feeding hungry people, but it kind of pisses me off that the North Korean government will no doubt use this to their advantage. They will say something like "See, the world has stopped giving you food because they want you all to suffer, but keep believing in and supporting the "Dear Leader" (aka the nutcase Kim Jong il), and he will get you out of this rut."

Nevermind the fact that it's because of "Dear Leader's" actions that all this suffering is happening to them in the first place. At the same time I just don't have much sympathy for a country who can't even feed their own people, yet are trying to develop stuff that won't really help them that much anyway. Kind of like those idiots after Katrina that used the $2,000 cards from FEMA to buy Gucci purses and expensive tv's, rather than food and clothing they desparately needed.

Rather than bombing the North Koreans with explosives, I say we just launch a ton of propaganda leaflets that don't just say "overthrow your leader, he is teh SuQ", but just show them pictures of the better parts of China, South Korea, food, etc., just to show the North Korean population what they're missing out on because of "Dear Leader". He won't seem so divine when they see how prosperous South Korea has become while they're stuck eating tree roots.

Of course, this makes too much sense, and no doubt the North will see this as aggression (unless they already struck first again), so it will probably never be used. But I bet you if they use the proper words and images, it'll weaken support for the N. Korean government at home (esp. if they do those "aerial food drops" like in Afghanistan, long as the govt. doesn't get a hand on that stuff first, and try to say that the gods are dropping them food because Dear Leader prayed lol).

Looks like the United States has confirmed that N. Korea had exploded a nuclear device. They say the bomb was probably less than a kiloton.

http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapc...ons/index.html

Tresspassing airspace like that would be an Act of War, so nope, never going to happen. People aren't stupid though, given enough starvation, they will eventually revolt against what is happening. It's just a matter of how destabilizing it is.

I think its funny that the place where they test the bombs is: kilju = "kill you".

I believe this was how the Berlin Wall fell. Or something like that - at least that's what I think happened; feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. If it worked for Germany it'll probably work for Korea.

I hope that this event will eventually cause the reunification of North and South Korea (not under Kim's rule though, of course; he can rot in hell, that cruel bastard).

This is getting pretty crazy though; China's pissed, Japan's pissed, South Korea is worried and pissed, and Bush's making another line that North Korea is just going to cross again. =/

Well, the way things are going, something BIG is going to happen in the next few weeks to months. I really think the rest of the world is waiting for N. Korea to make the big move.

I get this feeling that Kim Jong Il is not healthy. In fact, I assume he is dying. Before he dies, I think he is going to do something crazy.

Just a theory...

All the more reason to wipe out the North Korean regime completely.

Theres a consensus that it needs to happen, the regime can't stay. It's just more an issue of how. Personally, I see force as the only option considering how Sunshine and Chinese requests have all been rebuffed. However, since the US is still pretty dug down in the Middle East, doing so would severely blunt any further capabilities of the US army.

For that matter, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the DoD run on a policy of being able to fight two full scale wars on different fronts and one small insurrection somewhere else?

I think that the DOD had decided to do "reevaluate" that policy even before Iraq exposed how poorly prepared the Army was to make it work, and won't be without a major expansion of Army to give us the manpower to fight those two major wars.

That was one of the problems that resulted from the end of the Cold War. The DOD policy was, as you said, to be able to fight two major land wars at once, and during the Cold War, the military was large enough to make it workable. However, that policy stayed in place even with the force reductions instituted after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

Which isn't to say that we can't pound North Korea into the ground if we need to, but fighting a major ground war isn't much of an option for us right now; the South Koreans would need to be the ones doing that.

On the other hand, China may indeed be thinking about doing something about Kim.

Hmm, if that article is indeed correct, it seems that the DPRK isn't nearly as stable as I thought. I mean, I knew that Kim had to flex his military muscle to stay in power, but I did not think there had been coup attempts and riots in Pyongyang, essentially the city with the best quality of life in North Korea and inhabited only by those considered loyal to the party. Since those revolts seem to have been started by the North Korean elite, it wouldn't be all that unlikely that a significant portion of the army would be reluctant to fight or would just plain surrender if other countries were to invade. Unlike the average North Korean, those people know what happens in the outside world, and they know that they'd get blown into pieces sooner or later.

Nevermind either that the North Korean army uses their Kalashnikovs to till fields in the off-season.

Interesting article, thank you for pointing that out.

True, although frankly, what we're all really waiting for is to see how the Chinese behave, a Chinese coup would probably be the best option. Besides, China doesn't have much affection for the Hermit Kingdom, it merely keeps it as a bargianing chip, possibly for Taiwan. However, if the DPRK gets rowdy enough to force Japan and SK to militarize, its more of a liability, so I see a Chinese coup as likely.

I just watched a video done by ABC where a reporter was actually allowed in to North Korea to interview the people there. Despite knowing very little about the outside world they had extremely negative views on America.

They claimed we were evil and bad. They claimed we were nothing to them. That we caused the world pain and suffering. That North Korea is great and powerfull in comparison. Even when the news reporter tried to explain to them about our medicine, money, or technology they would just shake their head and deny it.

They didn't even seem to accept that South Korea was doing so well. It was all just praise for North Korea. That America and the rest of the world was evil. That North Korea was powerful and that we were afraid of them.

Though, despite hating America so much they were still kind to her. An old man even allowed her into his home after he got done telling her that he's glad North Korea has the bomb and that North Korea can now put pressure on the US. A young girl said she had no interest in anything that had to do with America. Whether it be art, music, and so on. But she played a game of bowling with the reporter and bowed to the reporter when she left.

It's kind of confusing. They're told we're so evil. But when someone from that evil country comes around some of them are still kind to them. Even if they hate us.

It kind of saddens me. Because if it comes to any kind of confrontation all those people, who actually look decent, will sacrifice themselves for a lie and a broken country they believe is so great. It also makes me wonder if any kind of confrontation would be wise at all. If they believe that stuff so strongly I doubt they'd change their point of view even if they saw with their own eyes that the world is alot better.

It's because they don't actually hate us. Those people watch South Korean television (even though they risk being re-educated), and they understand just how shitty their lives are in comparison.

It could probably be all a public stunt to make the US people and possibly the rest of the world believe that N. Korea hates the world and wants to blow everything up, etc.

Kinda sad. But this could easily be seen as a propaganda tool, possibly for both sides.

Or it's just their way of showing off their superiority. They'll willingly express their utmost hatred for you, but in an interesting twist, they won't treat you like the crap they see you as. Instead, they'll be mature about it. As a result, they think they aren't acting like scum - which is how they see you.

Wow, looks like North Korea and the world in general has something in common.

I was doing a little more "research" into North Korea, and was watching a lot of the propaganda stuff on youtube. With stuff like this, or this video, or even this, it'll help you to start understanding a little bit of the mentality that many North Koreans have. Because there, you're fed stuff like this day in and day out, and because you don't get CNN, Fox News, or anything else that isn't controlled by the state there, of course you'll get a biased view. So therefore, is it that much of a surprise to anyone that North Koreans think that the US is a bully and is the reason why the Korean penninsula remains divided? Of course, they don't get told that the Soviet Union, their sugar daddy, collapsed a few years ago, and China is slowly reverting back to capitalism, just that all their ills is because of the US.

I gotta say though, for all the starving and suffering the North Koreans are going through, they sure put on some awesome shows :D This will definitely make for some interesting stuff to study later on as to how to make propaganda work.

EDIT: Youtube seemed to be down when I posted this stuff, so here's one, and another one, and a military parade video from Google video.

You lie, you bourgeois bloodsucker! The DPRK is a socialist paradise. You can see so yourself just by reading news from the KCNA. Just go to NK News (easier to search than the KCNA website). I recommend the Hall of Fame, you'll find some true gems in there. There's even one where the KCNA practices "investigative journalism" to find out who is responsible for the few shortcomings of the north korean government. Who said they were just a propaganda tool?

The suggested searches are also good for a few laughs, especially that bargraph for the word "birthday".

Of course, the very style in which these articles are written will tell you more than the content about how well north korea understands the rest of the world, or at the very least, the english language. Let's just say that the KCNA has a very... unusual writing style.

a little scary to see some one actually talking about attacking north korea. Actually very scary. Such thinking is irrational to say the least.

Think of the geopolitics of that area. such as China.

And also that North Korea is a paper tiger on its last legs. It can be beaten economically with would involve a lot less bloodshed.

Double Post:
gecko3, i have to say this. your profound lack of understanding of politics and history is only matched by your lack of sensitivity.

to beat N. Korea economically would require China's cooperation. Lets figure out how to get that

Looks like North Korea is backing down from its stance by wanting to restart talks... Darn, I honestly thought something cool was going to happen. Geez, no more talk and more action!